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College football, Week 3: Schedule, TV listings, S&P+ picks

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NCAA Football: Cincinnati at Houston Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Now that I’m actually recording the projections correctly, I can see that S&P+ is starting out pretty consistently this year — 52% against the spread in week 1, 52% in week 2. What about week 3?

Once again, here is the google doc with this year’s picks in them. You can find F/+ on the far right.

Meanwhile, since I know some folks have been having problems viewing the Google doc, here’s a static HTML table -- S&P+-only for space. Gotta use the Google doc for F/+.

Day Time TV Game Spread (Home) S&P+ Projection Margin Win Prob. S&P+ Pick (ATS)
Thursday 7:30 PM ESPN Houston at Cincinnati 7.5 Houston (30.0-28.2) 1.8 54.2% Cincinnati
Friday 8:00 PM ESPN Baylor at Rice 30.0 Baylor (44.5-16.8) 27.7 94.5% Rice
Friday 9:00 PM CBSSN Arkansas State at Utah State -8.5 Utah State (32.3-23.2) 9.0 69.9% Utah State
Friday 9:30 PM ESPN2 Arizona State at UTSA 19.5 Arizona State (37.8-22.8) 15.0 80.7% UTSA
Saturday 12:00 PM CBSSN Akron at Marshall -16.5 Marshall (29.7-17.8) 12.0 75.5% Akron
Saturday 12:00 PM FS1 Iowa State at TCU -24.0 TCU (40.5-26.5) 14.0 79.0% Iowa State
Saturday 12:00 PM SECN Ohio at Tennessee -27.5 Tennessee (42.6-17.4) 25.2 92.7% Ohio
Saturday 12:00 PM ESPN2 North Dakota State at Iowa Iowa (41.0-14.8) 26.2 93.5%
Saturday 12:00 PM FSN Affiliates SC State at Clemson Clemson (53.1-7.6) 45.5 99.6%
Saturday 12:00 PM ABC Florida State at Louisville 2.0 Florida State (39.2-35.9) 3.2 57.4% Florida State
Saturday 12:00 PM BTN Georgia State at Wisconsin -34.5 Wisconsin (37.3-13.0) 24.3 92.0% Georgia State
Saturday 12:00 PM ESPNU Kansas at Memphis -20.0 Memphis (33.4-16.5) 16.9 83.5% Kansas
Saturday 12:00 PM ESPN Miami-FL at Appalachian State 3.5 Miami-FL (31.6-26.2) 5.4 62.2% Miami-FL
Saturday 12:00 PM ESPN3 Middle Tennessee at Bowling Green 5.5 Bowling Green (33.8-26.9) 6.9 65.6% Bowling Green
Saturday 12:00 PM ESPNN New Mexico at Rutgers -6.0 Rutgers (33.0-26.2) 6.8 65.3% Rutgers
Saturday 12:00 PM BTN Temple at Penn State -9.0 Penn State (30.7-21.1) 9.7 71.2% Penn State
Saturday 12:30 PM ACCN Vanderbilt at Georgia Tech -6.5 Georgia Tech (29.0-22.4) 6.5 64.7% Georgia Tech
Saturday 1:30 PM ESPN3 Virginia at Connecticut -4.0 Connecticut (30.3-29.8) 0.5 51.1% Virginia
Saturday 2:00 PM ESPN3 NC A&T at Tulsa Tulsa (38.6-25.2) 13.4 78.1%
Saturday 2:00 PM Pac-12 Idaho at Washington State -25.0 Washington State (41.0-24.4) 16.6 83.1% Idaho
Saturday 2:30 PM FSN Affiliates Florida Atlantic at Kansas State -22.5 Kansas State (30.7-21.1) 9.6 71.1% Florida Atlantic
Saturday 3:00 PM ESPN3 Eastern Kentucky at Ball State Ball State (33.0-25.2) 7.7 67.2%
Saturday 3:00 PM ESPN3 UNLV at Central Michigan -13.0 Central Michigan (35.7-22.6) 13.1 77.5% Central Michigan
Saturday 3:00 PM ESPN3 Fresno State at Toledo -20.5 Toledo (32.5-16.4) 16.0 82.3% Fresno State
Saturday 3:30 PM CBSSN Alabama at Ole Miss 10.5 Alabama (36.8-30.7) 6.1 63.8% Ole Miss
Saturday 3:30 PM ESPNU Boston College at Virginia Tech -5.5 Virginia Tech (25.9-17.7) 8.1 68.1% Virginia Tech
Saturday 3:30 PM BTN Colorado at Michigan -20.0 Michigan (39.5-14.4) 25.1 92.7% Michigan
Saturday 3:30 PM FSN Affiliates James Madison at North Carolina North Carolina (44.9-16.8) 28.0 94.7%
Saturday 3:30 PM ESPN3 Monmouth at Kent State Kent State (27.4-15.9) 11.5 74.7%
Saturday 3:30 PM ESPN3 Florida International at Massachusetts 0.0 Florida International (22.4-21.1) 1.2 52.9% Florida International
Saturday 3:30 PM ABC Oregon at Nebraska -3.0 Oregon (38.5-36.2) 2.3 55.3% Oregon
Saturday 3:30 PM ESPN Pittsburgh at Oklahoma State -6.0 Oklahoma State (33.9-27.8) 6.1 63.7% Oklahoma State
Saturday 3:30 PM CBSSN San Diego State at Northern Illinois 10.5 San Diego State (31.5-25.8) 5.7 62.9% Northern Illinois
Saturday 3:30 PM ACCN South Florida at Syracuse 14.0 South Florida (33.5-31.9) 1.6 53.6% Syracuse
Saturday 3:30 PM ESPN3 Western Kentucky at Miami-OH 17.5 Western Kentucky (39.0-21.5) 17.5 84.4% Western Kentucky
Saturday 4:00 PM SECN East Carolina at South Carolina -3.0 South Carolina (31.7-25.8) 5.9 63.3% South Carolina
Saturday 4:00 PM SECN New Mexico State at Kentucky -19.5 Kentucky (33.4-23.6) 9.9 71.5% New Mexico State
Saturday 4:00 PM ESPNN Western Michigan at Illinois 3.0 Illinois (33.4-31.0) 2.5 55.7% Illinois
Saturday 4:00 PM RSRM Northern Colorado at Colorado State Colorado State (38.0-23.2) 14.9 80.5%
Saturday 4:00 PM MWC Video UC Davis at Wyoming Wyoming (33.7-24.4) 9.3 70.4%
Saturday 5:00 PM Pac-12 Idaho State at Oregon State Oregon State (38.2-20.4) 17.8 84.8%
Saturday 6:00 PM $CUSA Video Eastern Michigan at Charlotte 2.5 Charlotte (27.4-25.4) 2.0 54.6% Charlotte
Saturday 6:00 PM ACCN Old Dominion at NC State -21.5 NC State (40.2-20.8) 19.4 86.8% Old Dominion
Saturday 6:00 PM ESPN3 UL-Monroe at Georgia Southern -25.5 Georgia Southern (40.4-15.6) 24.9 92.5% UL-Monroe
Saturday 6:30 PM ACCN Delaware at Wake Forest Wake Forest (38.8-16.0) 22.8 90.6%
Saturday 7:00 PM ESPN3 Liberty at SMU SMU (37.1-27.1) 10.0 71.8%
Saturday 7:00 PM CBSSN Maryland at Central Florida 8.5 Maryland (30.8-20.8) 10.0 71.9% Maryland
Saturday 7:00 PM ESPN3 Navy at Tulane 5.0 Navy (33.9-19.5) 14.4 79.8% Navy
Saturday 7:00 PM ESPN3 South Alabama at UL-Lafayette -3.0 UL-Lafayette (27.7-22.9) 4.8 60.9% UL-Lafayette
Saturday 7:00 PM ASN Army at UTEP 5.5 UTEP (26.5-23.6) 2.9 56.6% UTEP
Saturday 7:00 PM FSN Affiliates Louisiana Tech at Texas Tech -10.5 Texas Tech (42.1-30.8) 11.2 74.2% Texas Tech
Saturday 7:00 PM ESPN2 Mississippi State at LSU -14.5 LSU (39.3-27.0) 12.3 76.1% Mississippi State
Saturday 7:00 PM ESPN Texas A&M at Auburn -3.5 Auburn (32.1-30.4) 1.7 53.8% Texas A&M
Saturday 7:00 PM beIN Troy at Southern Miss -10.5 Southern Miss (35.5-22.1) 13.4 78.0% Southern Miss
Saturday 7:30 PM SECN Georgia at Missouri 6.5 Georgia (32.7-22.9) 9.9 71.6% Georgia
Saturday 7:30 PM NBC Michigan State at Notre Dame -7.5 Notre Dame (36.7-31.9) 4.8 60.8% Michigan State
Saturday 7:30 PM ESPNU North Texas at Florida -36.5 Florida (41.5-6.3) 35.2 97.9% North Texas
Saturday 7:30 PM Fox Ohio State at Oklahoma 2.0 Oklahoma (38.4-33.4) 5.0 61.4% Oklahoma
Saturday 7:30 PM SECN Texas State at Arkansas -31.0 Arkansas (47.6-18.9) 28.7 95.1% Texas State
Saturday 8:00 PM BTN Duke at Northwestern -6.0 Northwestern (25.5-20.7) 4.8 60.9% Duke
Saturday 8:00 PM ABC USC at Stanford -9.0 Stanford (32.6-30.1) 2.5 55.7% USC
Saturday 8:00 PM Pac-12 Portland State at Washington Washington (45.5-8.3) 37.1 98.4%
Saturday 9:00 PM Twitter Buffalo at Nevada -11.0 Nevada (27.7-21.5) 6.1 63.9% Buffalo
Saturday 10:15 PM ESPN2 UCLA at BYU 3.0 UCLA (34.6-31.4) 3.2 57.4% UCLA
Saturday 10:30 PM ESPN Texas at California 8.0 Texas (37.6-33.2) 4.4 60.0% California
Saturday 10:30 PM CBSSN Utah at San Jose State 13.0 Utah (32.9-22.2) 10.7 73.1% San Jose State
Saturday 10:45 PM Pac-12 Hawaii at Arizona -24.5 Arizona (38.0-19.8) 18.2 85.4% Hawaii

A few interesting picks:

  • Houston by 2 (S&P+) and 3 (F/+). My numbers obviously haven’t liked UH for a while, but here’s your reminder that tonight’s game is not a gimme. Cincy almost won last year (should have, really), and if the Cougars win easily (as my gut says they will), they’ll have proven themselves even further, numbers be damned.
  • TCU by only 14 over Iowa State (S&P+). My ratings certainly don’t like the Cyclones very much, but here’s your reminder that they don’t really like the Frogs either. The offense is fine (ninth in Off. S&P+), the defense ... less so (110th in Def. S&P+).
  • Alabama by only 6 over Ole Miss with only a 64% win probability (S&P+). The double-digit line feels high to me, though that almost sounds like doubting Bama, and ... well, I never doubt Bama. Doesn’t tend to work out when you do. So never mind.
  • OSU by 6 (S&P+) and 5 (F/+) over Pitt. This is a big road test for a Panther team that is exorcising demons and clearing hurdles. It’s also a test of resilience for an OSU team that had its heart ripped out against CMU a week ago.
  • Oklahoma by 5 (S&P+) and 8 (F/+) over Ohio State. The line has swung in favor of the Buckeyes, but the numbers still don’t trust such a young squad.
  • Texas Tech 42, Louisiana Tech 31 (S&P+). Feels about 2 touchdowns too low for each team.
  • Oregon by 2 (S&P+) and 3 (F/+) over Nebraska. Huge test for both teams. I wish this game was either last week or next week -- it’s getting drowned out this week.