Now that I’m actually recording the projections correctly, I can see that S&P+ is starting out pretty consistently this year — 52% against the spread in week 1, 52% in week 2. What about week 3?
Once again, here is the google doc with this year’s picks in them. You can find F/+ on the far right.
Meanwhile, since I know some folks have been having problems viewing the Google doc, here’s a static HTML table -- S&P+-only for space. Gotta use the Google doc for F/+.
|Day||Time||TV||Game||Spread (Home)||S&P+ Projection||Margin||Win Prob.||S&P+ Pick (ATS)|
|Thursday||7:30 PM||ESPN||Houston at Cincinnati||7.5||Houston (30.0-28.2)||1.8||54.2%||Cincinnati|
|Friday||8:00 PM||ESPN||Baylor at Rice||30.0||Baylor (44.5-16.8)||27.7||94.5%||Rice|
|Friday||9:00 PM||CBSSN||Arkansas State at Utah State||-8.5||Utah State (32.3-23.2)||9.0||69.9%||Utah State|
|Friday||9:30 PM||ESPN2||Arizona State at UTSA||19.5||Arizona State (37.8-22.8)||15.0||80.7%||UTSA|
|Saturday||12:00 PM||CBSSN||Akron at Marshall||-16.5||Marshall (29.7-17.8)||12.0||75.5%||Akron|
|Saturday||12:00 PM||FS1||Iowa State at TCU||-24.0||TCU (40.5-26.5)||14.0||79.0%||Iowa State|
|Saturday||12:00 PM||SECN||Ohio at Tennessee||-27.5||Tennessee (42.6-17.4)||25.2||92.7%||Ohio|
|Saturday||12:00 PM||ESPN2||North Dakota State at Iowa||Iowa (41.0-14.8)||26.2||93.5%|
|Saturday||12:00 PM||FSN Affiliates||SC State at Clemson||Clemson (53.1-7.6)||45.5||99.6%|
|Saturday||12:00 PM||ABC||Florida State at Louisville||2.0||Florida State (39.2-35.9)||3.2||57.4%||Florida State|
|Saturday||12:00 PM||BTN||Georgia State at Wisconsin||-34.5||Wisconsin (37.3-13.0)||24.3||92.0%||Georgia State|
|Saturday||12:00 PM||ESPNU||Kansas at Memphis||-20.0||Memphis (33.4-16.5)||16.9||83.5%||Kansas|
|Saturday||12:00 PM||ESPN||Miami-FL at Appalachian State||3.5||Miami-FL (31.6-26.2)||5.4||62.2%||Miami-FL|
|Saturday||12:00 PM||ESPN3||Middle Tennessee at Bowling Green||5.5||Bowling Green (33.8-26.9)||6.9||65.6%||Bowling Green|
|Saturday||12:00 PM||ESPNN||New Mexico at Rutgers||-6.0||Rutgers (33.0-26.2)||6.8||65.3%||Rutgers|
|Saturday||12:00 PM||BTN||Temple at Penn State||-9.0||Penn State (30.7-21.1)||9.7||71.2%||Penn State|
|Saturday||12:30 PM||ACCN||Vanderbilt at Georgia Tech||-6.5||Georgia Tech (29.0-22.4)||6.5||64.7%||Georgia Tech|
|Saturday||1:30 PM||ESPN3||Virginia at Connecticut||-4.0||Connecticut (30.3-29.8)||0.5||51.1%||Virginia|
|Saturday||2:00 PM||ESPN3||NC A&T at Tulsa||Tulsa (38.6-25.2)||13.4||78.1%|
|Saturday||2:00 PM||Pac-12||Idaho at Washington State||-25.0||Washington State (41.0-24.4)||16.6||83.1%||Idaho|
|Saturday||2:30 PM||FSN Affiliates||Florida Atlantic at Kansas State||-22.5||Kansas State (30.7-21.1)||9.6||71.1%||Florida Atlantic|
|Saturday||3:00 PM||ESPN3||Eastern Kentucky at Ball State||Ball State (33.0-25.2)||7.7||67.2%|
|Saturday||3:00 PM||ESPN3||UNLV at Central Michigan||-13.0||Central Michigan (35.7-22.6)||13.1||77.5%||Central Michigan|
|Saturday||3:00 PM||ESPN3||Fresno State at Toledo||-20.5||Toledo (32.5-16.4)||16.0||82.3%||Fresno State|
|Saturday||3:30 PM||CBSSN||Alabama at Ole Miss||10.5||Alabama (36.8-30.7)||6.1||63.8%||Ole Miss|
|Saturday||3:30 PM||ESPNU||Boston College at Virginia Tech||-5.5||Virginia Tech (25.9-17.7)||8.1||68.1%||Virginia Tech|
|Saturday||3:30 PM||BTN||Colorado at Michigan||-20.0||Michigan (39.5-14.4)||25.1||92.7%||Michigan|
|Saturday||3:30 PM||FSN Affiliates||James Madison at North Carolina||North Carolina (44.9-16.8)||28.0||94.7%|
|Saturday||3:30 PM||ESPN3||Monmouth at Kent State||Kent State (27.4-15.9)||11.5||74.7%|
|Saturday||3:30 PM||ESPN3||Florida International at Massachusetts||0.0||Florida International (22.4-21.1)||1.2||52.9%||Florida International|
|Saturday||3:30 PM||ABC||Oregon at Nebraska||-3.0||Oregon (38.5-36.2)||2.3||55.3%||Oregon|
|Saturday||3:30 PM||ESPN||Pittsburgh at Oklahoma State||-6.0||Oklahoma State (33.9-27.8)||6.1||63.7%||Oklahoma State|
|Saturday||3:30 PM||CBSSN||San Diego State at Northern Illinois||10.5||San Diego State (31.5-25.8)||5.7||62.9%||Northern Illinois|
|Saturday||3:30 PM||ACCN||South Florida at Syracuse||14.0||South Florida (33.5-31.9)||1.6||53.6%||Syracuse|
|Saturday||3:30 PM||ESPN3||Western Kentucky at Miami-OH||17.5||Western Kentucky (39.0-21.5)||17.5||84.4%||Western Kentucky|
|Saturday||4:00 PM||SECN||East Carolina at South Carolina||-3.0||South Carolina (31.7-25.8)||5.9||63.3%||South Carolina|
|Saturday||4:00 PM||SECN||New Mexico State at Kentucky||-19.5||Kentucky (33.4-23.6)||9.9||71.5%||New Mexico State|
|Saturday||4:00 PM||ESPNN||Western Michigan at Illinois||3.0||Illinois (33.4-31.0)||2.5||55.7%||Illinois|
|Saturday||4:00 PM||RSRM||Northern Colorado at Colorado State||Colorado State (38.0-23.2)||14.9||80.5%|
|Saturday||4:00 PM||MWC Video||UC Davis at Wyoming||Wyoming (33.7-24.4)||9.3||70.4%|
|Saturday||5:00 PM||Pac-12||Idaho State at Oregon State||Oregon State (38.2-20.4)||17.8||84.8%|
|Saturday||6:00 PM||$CUSA Video||Eastern Michigan at Charlotte||2.5||Charlotte (27.4-25.4)||2.0||54.6%||Charlotte|
|Saturday||6:00 PM||ACCN||Old Dominion at NC State||-21.5||NC State (40.2-20.8)||19.4||86.8%||Old Dominion|
|Saturday||6:00 PM||ESPN3||UL-Monroe at Georgia Southern||-25.5||Georgia Southern (40.4-15.6)||24.9||92.5%||UL-Monroe|
|Saturday||6:30 PM||ACCN||Delaware at Wake Forest||Wake Forest (38.8-16.0)||22.8||90.6%|
|Saturday||7:00 PM||ESPN3||Liberty at SMU||SMU (37.1-27.1)||10.0||71.8%|
|Saturday||7:00 PM||CBSSN||Maryland at Central Florida||8.5||Maryland (30.8-20.8)||10.0||71.9%||Maryland|
|Saturday||7:00 PM||ESPN3||Navy at Tulane||5.0||Navy (33.9-19.5)||14.4||79.8%||Navy|
|Saturday||7:00 PM||ESPN3||South Alabama at UL-Lafayette||-3.0||UL-Lafayette (27.7-22.9)||4.8||60.9%||UL-Lafayette|
|Saturday||7:00 PM||ASN||Army at UTEP||5.5||UTEP (26.5-23.6)||2.9||56.6%||UTEP|
|Saturday||7:00 PM||FSN Affiliates||Louisiana Tech at Texas Tech||-10.5||Texas Tech (42.1-30.8)||11.2||74.2%||Texas Tech|
|Saturday||7:00 PM||ESPN2||Mississippi State at LSU||-14.5||LSU (39.3-27.0)||12.3||76.1%||Mississippi State|
|Saturday||7:00 PM||ESPN||Texas A&M at Auburn||-3.5||Auburn (32.1-30.4)||1.7||53.8%||Texas A&M|
|Saturday||7:00 PM||beIN||Troy at Southern Miss||-10.5||Southern Miss (35.5-22.1)||13.4||78.0%||Southern Miss|
|Saturday||7:30 PM||SECN||Georgia at Missouri||6.5||Georgia (32.7-22.9)||9.9||71.6%||Georgia|
|Saturday||7:30 PM||NBC||Michigan State at Notre Dame||-7.5||Notre Dame (36.7-31.9)||4.8||60.8%||Michigan State|
|Saturday||7:30 PM||ESPNU||North Texas at Florida||-36.5||Florida (41.5-6.3)||35.2||97.9%||North Texas|
|Saturday||7:30 PM||Fox||Ohio State at Oklahoma||2.0||Oklahoma (38.4-33.4)||5.0||61.4%||Oklahoma|
|Saturday||7:30 PM||SECN||Texas State at Arkansas||-31.0||Arkansas (47.6-18.9)||28.7||95.1%||Texas State|
|Saturday||8:00 PM||BTN||Duke at Northwestern||-6.0||Northwestern (25.5-20.7)||4.8||60.9%||Duke|
|Saturday||8:00 PM||ABC||USC at Stanford||-9.0||Stanford (32.6-30.1)||2.5||55.7%||USC|
|Saturday||8:00 PM||Pac-12||Portland State at Washington||Washington (45.5-8.3)||37.1||98.4%|
|Saturday||9:00 PM||Buffalo at Nevada||-11.0||Nevada (27.7-21.5)||6.1||63.9%||Buffalo|
|Saturday||10:15 PM||ESPN2||UCLA at BYU||3.0||UCLA (34.6-31.4)||3.2||57.4%||UCLA|
|Saturday||10:30 PM||ESPN||Texas at California||8.0||Texas (37.6-33.2)||4.4||60.0%||California|
|Saturday||10:30 PM||CBSSN||Utah at San Jose State||13.0||Utah (32.9-22.2)||10.7||73.1%||San Jose State|
|Saturday||10:45 PM||Pac-12||Hawaii at Arizona||-24.5||Arizona (38.0-19.8)||18.2||85.4%||Hawaii|
A few interesting picks:
- Houston by 2 (S&P+) and 3 (F/+). My numbers obviously haven’t liked UH for a while, but here’s your reminder that tonight’s game is not a gimme. Cincy almost won last year (should have, really), and if the Cougars win easily (as my gut says they will), they’ll have proven themselves even further, numbers be damned.
- TCU by only 14 over Iowa State (S&P+). My ratings certainly don’t like the Cyclones very much, but here’s your reminder that they don’t really like the Frogs either. The offense is fine (ninth in Off. S&P+), the defense ... less so (110th in Def. S&P+).
- Alabama by only 6 over Ole Miss with only a 64% win probability (S&P+). The double-digit line feels high to me, though that almost sounds like doubting Bama, and ... well, I never doubt Bama. Doesn’t tend to work out when you do. So never mind.
- OSU by 6 (S&P+) and 5 (F/+) over Pitt. This is a big road test for a Panther team that is exorcising demons and clearing hurdles. It’s also a test of resilience for an OSU team that had its heart ripped out against CMU a week ago.
- Oklahoma by 5 (S&P+) and 8 (F/+) over Ohio State. The line has swung in favor of the Buckeyes, but the numbers still don’t trust such a young squad.
- Texas Tech 42, Louisiana Tech 31 (S&P+). Feels about 2 touchdowns too low for each team.
- Oregon by 2 (S&P+) and 3 (F/+) over Nebraska. Huge test for both teams. I wish this game was either last week or next week -- it’s getting drowned out this week.