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Now that I’m actually recording the projections correctly, I can see that S&P+ is starting out pretty consistently this year — 52% against the spread in week 1, 52% in week 2. What about week 3?
Once again, here is the google doc with this year’s picks in them. You can find F/+ on the far right.
Meanwhile, since I know some folks have been having problems viewing the Google doc, here’s a static HTML table -- S&P+-only for space. Gotta use the Google doc for F/+.
Day | Time | TV | Game | Spread (Home) | S&P+ Projection | Margin | Win Prob. | S&P+ Pick (ATS) |
Thursday | 7:30 PM | ESPN | Houston at Cincinnati | 7.5 | Houston (30.0-28.2) | 1.8 | 54.2% | Cincinnati |
Friday | 8:00 PM | ESPN | Baylor at Rice | 30.0 | Baylor (44.5-16.8) | 27.7 | 94.5% | Rice |
Friday | 9:00 PM | CBSSN | Arkansas State at Utah State | -8.5 | Utah State (32.3-23.2) | 9.0 | 69.9% | Utah State |
Friday | 9:30 PM | ESPN2 | Arizona State at UTSA | 19.5 | Arizona State (37.8-22.8) | 15.0 | 80.7% | UTSA |
Saturday | 12:00 PM | CBSSN | Akron at Marshall | -16.5 | Marshall (29.7-17.8) | 12.0 | 75.5% | Akron |
Saturday | 12:00 PM | FS1 | Iowa State at TCU | -24.0 | TCU (40.5-26.5) | 14.0 | 79.0% | Iowa State |
Saturday | 12:00 PM | SECN | Ohio at Tennessee | -27.5 | Tennessee (42.6-17.4) | 25.2 | 92.7% | Ohio |
Saturday | 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | North Dakota State at Iowa | Iowa (41.0-14.8) | 26.2 | 93.5% | ||
Saturday | 12:00 PM | FSN Affiliates | SC State at Clemson | Clemson (53.1-7.6) | 45.5 | 99.6% | ||
Saturday | 12:00 PM | ABC | Florida State at Louisville | 2.0 | Florida State (39.2-35.9) | 3.2 | 57.4% | Florida State |
Saturday | 12:00 PM | BTN | Georgia State at Wisconsin | -34.5 | Wisconsin (37.3-13.0) | 24.3 | 92.0% | Georgia State |
Saturday | 12:00 PM | ESPNU | Kansas at Memphis | -20.0 | Memphis (33.4-16.5) | 16.9 | 83.5% | Kansas |
Saturday | 12:00 PM | ESPN | Miami-FL at Appalachian State | 3.5 | Miami-FL (31.6-26.2) | 5.4 | 62.2% | Miami-FL |
Saturday | 12:00 PM | ESPN3 | Middle Tennessee at Bowling Green | 5.5 | Bowling Green (33.8-26.9) | 6.9 | 65.6% | Bowling Green |
Saturday | 12:00 PM | ESPNN | New Mexico at Rutgers | -6.0 | Rutgers (33.0-26.2) | 6.8 | 65.3% | Rutgers |
Saturday | 12:00 PM | BTN | Temple at Penn State | -9.0 | Penn State (30.7-21.1) | 9.7 | 71.2% | Penn State |
Saturday | 12:30 PM | ACCN | Vanderbilt at Georgia Tech | -6.5 | Georgia Tech (29.0-22.4) | 6.5 | 64.7% | Georgia Tech |
Saturday | 1:30 PM | ESPN3 | Virginia at Connecticut | -4.0 | Connecticut (30.3-29.8) | 0.5 | 51.1% | Virginia |
Saturday | 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | NC A&T at Tulsa | Tulsa (38.6-25.2) | 13.4 | 78.1% | ||
Saturday | 2:00 PM | Pac-12 | Idaho at Washington State | -25.0 | Washington State (41.0-24.4) | 16.6 | 83.1% | Idaho |
Saturday | 2:30 PM | FSN Affiliates | Florida Atlantic at Kansas State | -22.5 | Kansas State (30.7-21.1) | 9.6 | 71.1% | Florida Atlantic |
Saturday | 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Eastern Kentucky at Ball State | Ball State (33.0-25.2) | 7.7 | 67.2% | ||
Saturday | 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | UNLV at Central Michigan | -13.0 | Central Michigan (35.7-22.6) | 13.1 | 77.5% | Central Michigan |
Saturday | 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Fresno State at Toledo | -20.5 | Toledo (32.5-16.4) | 16.0 | 82.3% | Fresno State |
Saturday | 3:30 PM | CBSSN | Alabama at Ole Miss | 10.5 | Alabama (36.8-30.7) | 6.1 | 63.8% | Ole Miss |
Saturday | 3:30 PM | ESPNU | Boston College at Virginia Tech | -5.5 | Virginia Tech (25.9-17.7) | 8.1 | 68.1% | Virginia Tech |
Saturday | 3:30 PM | BTN | Colorado at Michigan | -20.0 | Michigan (39.5-14.4) | 25.1 | 92.7% | Michigan |
Saturday | 3:30 PM | FSN Affiliates | James Madison at North Carolina | North Carolina (44.9-16.8) | 28.0 | 94.7% | ||
Saturday | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Monmouth at Kent State | Kent State (27.4-15.9) | 11.5 | 74.7% | ||
Saturday | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Florida International at Massachusetts | 0.0 | Florida International (22.4-21.1) | 1.2 | 52.9% | Florida International |
Saturday | 3:30 PM | ABC | Oregon at Nebraska | -3.0 | Oregon (38.5-36.2) | 2.3 | 55.3% | Oregon |
Saturday | 3:30 PM | ESPN | Pittsburgh at Oklahoma State | -6.0 | Oklahoma State (33.9-27.8) | 6.1 | 63.7% | Oklahoma State |
Saturday | 3:30 PM | CBSSN | San Diego State at Northern Illinois | 10.5 | San Diego State (31.5-25.8) | 5.7 | 62.9% | Northern Illinois |
Saturday | 3:30 PM | ACCN | South Florida at Syracuse | 14.0 | South Florida (33.5-31.9) | 1.6 | 53.6% | Syracuse |
Saturday | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Western Kentucky at Miami-OH | 17.5 | Western Kentucky (39.0-21.5) | 17.5 | 84.4% | Western Kentucky |
Saturday | 4:00 PM | SECN | East Carolina at South Carolina | -3.0 | South Carolina (31.7-25.8) | 5.9 | 63.3% | South Carolina |
Saturday | 4:00 PM | SECN | New Mexico State at Kentucky | -19.5 | Kentucky (33.4-23.6) | 9.9 | 71.5% | New Mexico State |
Saturday | 4:00 PM | ESPNN | Western Michigan at Illinois | 3.0 | Illinois (33.4-31.0) | 2.5 | 55.7% | Illinois |
Saturday | 4:00 PM | RSRM | Northern Colorado at Colorado State | Colorado State (38.0-23.2) | 14.9 | 80.5% | ||
Saturday | 4:00 PM | MWC Video | UC Davis at Wyoming | Wyoming (33.7-24.4) | 9.3 | 70.4% | ||
Saturday | 5:00 PM | Pac-12 | Idaho State at Oregon State | Oregon State (38.2-20.4) | 17.8 | 84.8% | ||
Saturday | 6:00 PM | $CUSA Video | Eastern Michigan at Charlotte | 2.5 | Charlotte (27.4-25.4) | 2.0 | 54.6% | Charlotte |
Saturday | 6:00 PM | ACCN | Old Dominion at NC State | -21.5 | NC State (40.2-20.8) | 19.4 | 86.8% | Old Dominion |
Saturday | 6:00 PM | ESPN3 | UL-Monroe at Georgia Southern | -25.5 | Georgia Southern (40.4-15.6) | 24.9 | 92.5% | UL-Monroe |
Saturday | 6:30 PM | ACCN | Delaware at Wake Forest | Wake Forest (38.8-16.0) | 22.8 | 90.6% | ||
Saturday | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Liberty at SMU | SMU (37.1-27.1) | 10.0 | 71.8% | ||
Saturday | 7:00 PM | CBSSN | Maryland at Central Florida | 8.5 | Maryland (30.8-20.8) | 10.0 | 71.9% | Maryland |
Saturday | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Navy at Tulane | 5.0 | Navy (33.9-19.5) | 14.4 | 79.8% | Navy |
Saturday | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | South Alabama at UL-Lafayette | -3.0 | UL-Lafayette (27.7-22.9) | 4.8 | 60.9% | UL-Lafayette |
Saturday | 7:00 PM | ASN | Army at UTEP | 5.5 | UTEP (26.5-23.6) | 2.9 | 56.6% | UTEP |
Saturday | 7:00 PM | FSN Affiliates | Louisiana Tech at Texas Tech | -10.5 | Texas Tech (42.1-30.8) | 11.2 | 74.2% | Texas Tech |
Saturday | 7:00 PM | ESPN2 | Mississippi State at LSU | -14.5 | LSU (39.3-27.0) | 12.3 | 76.1% | Mississippi State |
Saturday | 7:00 PM | ESPN | Texas A&M at Auburn | -3.5 | Auburn (32.1-30.4) | 1.7 | 53.8% | Texas A&M |
Saturday | 7:00 PM | beIN | Troy at Southern Miss | -10.5 | Southern Miss (35.5-22.1) | 13.4 | 78.0% | Southern Miss |
Saturday | 7:30 PM | SECN | Georgia at Missouri | 6.5 | Georgia (32.7-22.9) | 9.9 | 71.6% | Georgia |
Saturday | 7:30 PM | NBC | Michigan State at Notre Dame | -7.5 | Notre Dame (36.7-31.9) | 4.8 | 60.8% | Michigan State |
Saturday | 7:30 PM | ESPNU | North Texas at Florida | -36.5 | Florida (41.5-6.3) | 35.2 | 97.9% | North Texas |
Saturday | 7:30 PM | Fox | Ohio State at Oklahoma | 2.0 | Oklahoma (38.4-33.4) | 5.0 | 61.4% | Oklahoma |
Saturday | 7:30 PM | SECN | Texas State at Arkansas | -31.0 | Arkansas (47.6-18.9) | 28.7 | 95.1% | Texas State |
Saturday | 8:00 PM | BTN | Duke at Northwestern | -6.0 | Northwestern (25.5-20.7) | 4.8 | 60.9% | Duke |
Saturday | 8:00 PM | ABC | USC at Stanford | -9.0 | Stanford (32.6-30.1) | 2.5 | 55.7% | USC |
Saturday | 8:00 PM | Pac-12 | Portland State at Washington | Washington (45.5-8.3) | 37.1 | 98.4% | ||
Saturday | 9:00 PM | Buffalo at Nevada | -11.0 | Nevada (27.7-21.5) | 6.1 | 63.9% | Buffalo | |
Saturday | 10:15 PM | ESPN2 | UCLA at BYU | 3.0 | UCLA (34.6-31.4) | 3.2 | 57.4% | UCLA |
Saturday | 10:30 PM | ESPN | Texas at California | 8.0 | Texas (37.6-33.2) | 4.4 | 60.0% | California |
Saturday | 10:30 PM | CBSSN | Utah at San Jose State | 13.0 | Utah (32.9-22.2) | 10.7 | 73.1% | San Jose State |
Saturday | 10:45 PM | Pac-12 | Hawaii at Arizona | -24.5 | Arizona (38.0-19.8) | 18.2 | 85.4% | Hawaii |
A few interesting picks:
- Houston by 2 (S&P+) and 3 (F/+). My numbers obviously haven’t liked UH for a while, but here’s your reminder that tonight’s game is not a gimme. Cincy almost won last year (should have, really), and if the Cougars win easily (as my gut says they will), they’ll have proven themselves even further, numbers be damned.
- TCU by only 14 over Iowa State (S&P+). My ratings certainly don’t like the Cyclones very much, but here’s your reminder that they don’t really like the Frogs either. The offense is fine (ninth in Off. S&P+), the defense ... less so (110th in Def. S&P+).
- Alabama by only 6 over Ole Miss with only a 64% win probability (S&P+). The double-digit line feels high to me, though that almost sounds like doubting Bama, and ... well, I never doubt Bama. Doesn’t tend to work out when you do. So never mind.
- OSU by 6 (S&P+) and 5 (F/+) over Pitt. This is a big road test for a Panther team that is exorcising demons and clearing hurdles. It’s also a test of resilience for an OSU team that had its heart ripped out against CMU a week ago.
- Oklahoma by 5 (S&P+) and 8 (F/+) over Ohio State. The line has swung in favor of the Buckeyes, but the numbers still don’t trust such a young squad.
- Texas Tech 42, Louisiana Tech 31 (S&P+). Feels about 2 touchdowns too low for each team.
- Oregon by 2 (S&P+) and 3 (F/+) over Nebraska. Huge test for both teams. I wish this game was either last week or next week -- it’s getting drowned out this week.
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