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2016 AAC win projections: What if Houston *isn’t* great?

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Full 2016 S&P+ projections and win probabilities for the AAC.

NCAA Football: Texas State at Houston Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The final 2016 S&P+ projections are complete, but since I teased the idea of win probabilities in the primary SB Nation post, I wanted to use Study Hall as a repository for total win projections. Below you’ll find odds of each possible given record (overall and conference-only) for each team in the AAC. Enjoy.

AAC total win projections

(Click on the images to zoom.)

AAC win projections

AAC conference-play win projections

AAC conference win projections

Your East division favorites: USF and Temple. Wildcard Cincy isn’t too far behind. (Here’s one more opportunity to marvel at how quickly things have turned around for USF.)

Your West division favorites: Houston ... and Navy. And here’s one more opportunity to marvel at how much S&P+ disliked the Cougars last year. And while part of that was due to how the Cougars played when Greg Ward was hurt (which wouldn’t necessarily apply to 2016 unless he gets hurt again), part of it wasn’t.

Your G5 bowl contenders: Temple? Obviously if Houston defies projections, the Cougars have a schedule that would not only put them in great G5 bowl contention, but maybe Playoff contention. But since S&P+ doesn’t like Houston, it obviously doesn’t like Houston’s chances against a schedule with OU and Louisville on it. And only Temple has a greater than 5% chance of finishing 11-1.