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2016 MAC win projections: The West race is another free-for-all (that NIU will probably win)

Full 2016 S&P+ projections and win probabilities for the MAC.

NCAA Football: Western Michigan at Northern Illinois Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

The final 2016 S&P+ projections are complete, but since I teased the idea of win probabilities in the primary SB Nation post, I wanted to use Study Hall as a repository for total win projections. Below you’ll find odds of each possible given record (overall and conference-only) for each team in the MAC. Enjoy.

MAC total win projections

(Click on the images to zoom.)

MAC win projections

MAC conference-play win projections

MAC conference win projections

Your East division favorite: Bowling Green. Obviously the coaching change brings this into question, but S&P+ doesn’t care about coaching changes. The Falcons are nearly 2 full projected conference wins ahead of anybody else in the East. They might have some margin for error even if Mike Jinks makes a couple of “first-time head coach” missteps along the way.

Your West division favorite: Toledo and WMU ... with NIU and CMU nearby. This isn’t the ACC Coastal, but it’s still going to be a hell of a title race. And yes, NIU will probably win it, just because.

Your G5 Bowl contender: Toledo. The Rockets have a 7.9% chance of finishing 11-1 or better, which means they’re just barely a contender, especially with no major-conference opponents on the schedule.