The final 2016 S&P+ projections are complete, but since I teased the idea of win probabilities in the primary SB Nation post, I wanted to use Study Hall as a repository for total win projections. Below you’ll find odds of each possible given record (overall and conference-only) for each team in the MAC. Enjoy.
MAC total win projections
(Click on the images to zoom.)
MAC conference-play win projections
Your East division favorite: Bowling Green. Obviously the coaching change brings this into question, but S&P+ doesn’t care about coaching changes. The Falcons are nearly 2 full projected conference wins ahead of anybody else in the East. They might have some margin for error even if Mike Jinks makes a couple of “first-time head coach” missteps along the way.
Your West division favorite: Toledo and WMU ... with NIU and CMU nearby. This isn’t the ACC Coastal, but it’s still going to be a hell of a title race. And yes, NIU will probably win it, just because.
Your G5 Bowl contender: Toledo. The Rockets have a 7.9% chance of finishing 11-1 or better, which means they’re just barely a contender, especially with no major-conference opponents on the schedule.