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2016 Conference USA win projections: A WKU-Southern Miss rematch?

Full 2016 S&P+ projections and win probabilities for Conference USA.

NCAA Football: Conference USA Championship-Western Kentucky vs Southern Mississippi Joshua Lindsey-USA TODAY Sports

The final 2016 S&P+ projections are complete, but since I teased the idea of win probabilities in the primary SB Nation post, I wanted to use Study Hall as a repository for total win projections. Below you’ll find odds of each possible given record (overall and conference-only) for each team in the CUSA. Enjoy.

CUSA total win projections

(Click on the images to zoom.)

Conference USA win projections

CUSA conference-play win projections

Conference USA conference win projections

Your East division favorites: WKU and Marshall. MTSU’s the only other team within 2.4 projected wins of the favored Hilltoppers (who kind of have to replace their star QB and some key assistants).

Your West division favorites: Southern Miss and maybe Louisiana Tech. The Golden Eagles also have to replace their head coach, which is always scary. But Jay Hopson inherits a little bit of margin for error, evidently.

Your P5 Bowl contender: WKU. The ‘Toppers have an 11% chance of going 11-1 or better. Southern Miss is at 6%. But with such question marks for both teams, this conference could very well end up closer than projected.