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2016 Indie football win projections: Will defense cost Notre Dame a title shot?

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Full 2016 S&P+ projections and win probabilities for college football independents.

Notre Dame v Virginia Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images

The final 2016 S&P+ projections are complete, but since I teased the idea of win probabilities in the primary SB Nation post, I wanted to use Study Hall as a repository for total win projections. Below you’ll find odds of each possible given record (overall and conference-only) for each team in the independent ranks. (And here’s your reminder that UMass is independent this year!) Enjoy.

Indie total win projections

(Click on the images to zoom.)

Indie win projections

Your national title contender: Notre Dame. That’s about it, though there are two slightly surprising things here. 1) Notre Dame’s chances of finishing at least 11-1 are only 9.5%, and 2) BYU’s on the board at 1.3%. S&P+ does not like the Irish defense very much, projecting the Irish 48th in Def. S&P+ and fifth in Off. S&P+.

Oh, and 3) Army has a 13% chance of finishing at least 6-6. That’d be fantastic.