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2016 ACC win projections: Louisville can muddy the waters for the contenders

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Full 2016 S&P+ projections and win probabilities for the ACC.

NCAA Football: Music City Bowl-Texas A&M vs Louisville Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

The final 2016 S&P+ projections are complete, but since I teased the idea of win probabilities in the primary SB Nation post, I wanted to use Study Hall as a repository for total win projections. Below you’ll find odds of each possible given record (overall and conference-only) for each team in the ACC. Enjoy.

This weekend came news that a) Miami has dismissed a couple of starters (Jermaine Grace, Al-Quadin Muhammad), and b) Duke’s Thomas Sirk has been injured for the season. That created the following changes in last week’s projections:

  • Miami doesn’t change much. The two players dismissed were a starting defensive end and linebacker, and since the secondary carries far more weight in the defensive returning production figures, Miami’s projected S&P+ fell only from +10.9 to +10.5, and the Hurricanes still rank 31st.
  • Duke was not as lucky. Returning QB production carries heavy weight, and Sirk’s absence drops Duke’s offensive returning production from 71% to 36%. In turn, that drops Duke’s projected S&P+ from +3.9 to +0.7 ... and with so many teams bunched together, that three-point drop induced a drop from 51st to 71st overall.

These changes are accounted for in the projections below. (Note: I have already run projections for all of the mid-major conferences, too, and they are scheduled to go up in the coming days. I am not changing those posts because of basically one team dropping.)

ACC total win projections

(Click on the images to zoom.)

ACC Projected Wins

ACC conference-play win projections

ACC Projected Conference Wins

Your Atlantic division favorites: Clemson and Florida State. That was obvious. Perhaps the most interesting thing is that Louisville is only 1.4 projected conference wins behind and gets FSU at home. If Louisville beats the ‘Noles, and the ‘Noles beat Clemson ... well ... Clemson probably still wins. But we have more of a race, anyway.

Your Coastal division favorites: Virginia Tech, Pitt, North Carolina, Miami. And Georgia Tech isn’t that far behind. The Coastal is going to be as messy and fun to follow as ever.

Your national title contenders: Duh. S&P+ gives Clemson an astounding 49.8% chance of finishing 11-1 or 12-0, which is crazy-high, and FSU comes in at 12.9%. Louisville is hanging out nearby at 8.1%.