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2016 Big 12 win projections: Who can challenge Oklahoma?

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Full 2016 S&P+ projections and win probabilities for the Big 12.

NCAA Football: Oklahoma at Oklahoma State Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The final 2016 S&P+ projections are complete, but since I teased the idea of win probabilities in the primary SB Nation post, I wanted to use Study Hall as a repository for total win projections. Below you’ll find odds of each possible given record (overall and conference-only) for each team in the Big 12. Enjoy.

Big 12 total win projections

(Click on the images to zoom.)

Big 12 win projections

Big 12 conference-play win projections

Big 12 projected conference wins

Your conference favorites: Oklahoma and...well... Nobody else is within 1.6 projected wins of the Sooners, and while OU has about a 68% chance of finishing 8-1 or better in conference play, nobody else is higher than 15%. I personally like TCU a lot more than S&P+, but per the numbers, this conference is OU’s to lose. (And before you bring up 2014, S&P+ did not like OU in 2014 like it does now.)

Your national title contender: Oklahoma. Duh. Baylor does have a 7.7% chance of finishing 11-1 or better, so you could consider the Bears a contender (if you remember that S&P+ only cares about what’s on paper, not what happened in Waco this offseason).

By the way, Texas Tech has a 0.2% chance of finishing 11-1. I know what “so you’re telling me there’s a chance” scenario I will be rooting for...