The final 2016 S&P+ projections are complete, but since I teased the idea of win probabilities in the primary SB Nation post, I wanted to use Study Hall as a repository for total win projections. Below you’ll find odds of each possible given record (overall and conference-only) for each team in the Big 12. Enjoy.
Big 12 total win projections
(Click on the images to zoom.)
Big 12 conference-play win projections
Your conference favorites: Oklahoma and...well... Nobody else is within 1.6 projected wins of the Sooners, and while OU has about a 68% chance of finishing 8-1 or better in conference play, nobody else is higher than 15%. I personally like TCU a lot more than S&P+, but per the numbers, this conference is OU’s to lose. (And before you bring up 2014, S&P+ did not like OU in 2014 like it does now.)
Your national title contender: Oklahoma. Duh. Baylor does have a 7.7% chance of finishing 11-1 or better, so you could consider the Bears a contender (if you remember that S&P+ only cares about what’s on paper, not what happened in Waco this offseason).
By the way, Texas Tech has a 0.2% chance of finishing 11-1. I know what “so you’re telling me there’s a chance” scenario I will be rooting for...