The final 2016 S&P+ projections are complete, but since I teased the idea of win probabilities in the primary SB Nation post, I wanted to use Study Hall as a repository for total win projections. Below you’ll find odds of each possible given record (overall and conference-only) for each team in the Pac-12. Enjoy.
Pac-12 total win projections
(Click on the images to zoom.)
Pac-12 conference-play win projections
Your North division favorites: Washington, Oregon, Stanford. They’re all within 0.5 wins of the top in projected conference wins. And nobody else is within 2.4.
Your South division favorites: UCLA and USC. S&P+ likes the Trojans more but likes the Bruins’ schedule much more. And Utah’s the only other team within shouting distance.
Your national title contenders: Washington and UCLA. They’re the only teams with at least a 10% chance of finishing 11-1 or better, though that might be splitting hairs—Oregon’s at 9.1%. (And yes, I would still personally trust Stanford over any of these teams. That schedule’s a bear, though.)