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2016 MWC win projections: Just go ahead and sell Boise-SDSU title game tickets now

Full 2016 S&P+ projections and win probabilities for the Mountain West.

NCAA Football: San Diego State at Boise State Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports

The final 2016 S&P+ projections are complete, but since I teased the idea of win probabilities in the primary SB Nation post, I wanted to use Study Hall as a repository for total win projections. Below you’ll find odds of each possible given record (overall and conference-only) for each team in the MWC. Enjoy.

Since Hawaii plays tonight, I figured I should knock out the MWC before then.

MWC total win projections

(Click on the images to zoom.)

MWC win projections

MWC conference-play win projections

MWC conference win projections

Your Mountain division favorite: Boise State. We saw last year that surprises can happen (this is college football, after all), but BSU once again begins the season with the best odds, basically 1.8 projected conference wins ahead of everyone else.

Your West division favorite: SDSU. The Aztecs are 1.7 wins ahead of everyone in the West. This is setting up to be maybe the two least competitive division races in FBS. (At least until fate reads this and says “You think so, huh?)

Your G5 Bowl contenders: Boise State and SDSU. Surprise! Boise has a 23.5% chance of reaching at least 11-1, and SDSU is at 13.4%. Air Force is next at 3.6%.