My preseason S&P+ projections are basically a mix of three factors: returning production, two-year recruiting, and recent history. I talked about recruiting and returnees last week at SB Nation, but before posting preliminary 2016 projections at SBN tomorrow, I thought I could go ahead and post the last piece as well.
Here are the last five years of S&P+ ratings for each team. (If a team hasn't been in FBS for five full years, I'm just using the averages of their performances to date.) You'll never believe who's atop the rankings.
| Team | 2011 S&P+ | 2012 S&P+ | 2013 S&P+ | 2014 S&P+ | 2015 S&P+ | 5-YEAR AVERAGE | Rk |
| Alabama | 27.5 | 28.5 | 22.2 | 28.3 | 30.0 | 27.3 | 1 |
| LSU | 28.7 | 15.4 | 15.9 | 16.5 | 18.6 | 19.0 | 2 |
| Ohio State | 6.2 | 12.7 | 18.4 | 30.2 | 24.0 | 18.3 | 3 |
| Oregon | 21.2 | 22.1 | 12.5 | 23.7 | 11.6 | 18.2 | 4 |
| Oklahoma | 21.5 | 17.5 | 10.7 | 17.7 | 22.6 | 18.0 | 5 |
| Stanford | 16.6 | 17.0 | 21.2 | 16.6 | 18.4 | 18.0 | 6 |
| Florida State | 10.9 | 13.8 | 25.6 | 13.7 | 20.0 | 16.8 | 7 |
| Georgia | 15.2 | 18.5 | 16.4 | 22.6 | 10.0 | 16.5 | 8 |
| Notre Dame | 16.4 | 21.7 | 9.6 | 12.1 | 18.8 | 15.7 | 9 |
| Baylor | 10.0 | 11.5 | 21.2 | 17.2 | 15.6 | 15.1 | 10 |
| Texas A&M | 16.7 | 23.0 | 16.4 | 10.4 | 7.7 | 14.8 | 11 |
| Michigan State | 12.8 | 13.9 | 12.2 | 18.6 | 15.9 | 14.7 | 12 |
| Clemson | 5.5 | 9.6 | 14.3 | 15.5 | 27.4 | 14.5 | 13 |
| USC | 13.9 | 12.8 | 15.7 | 14.2 | 14.9 | 14.3 | 14 |
| Wisconsin | 16.5 | 14.1 | 14.1 | 12.8 | 10.3 | 13.6 | 15 |
| Oklahoma State | 25.4 | 14.4 | 17.6 | 0.0 | 9.9 | 13.5 | 16 |
| Michigan | 19.0 | 11.4 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 21.1 | 13.0 | 17 |
| Florida | 6.4 | 22.4 | 9.7 | 11.6 | 14.3 | 12.9 | 18 |
| Boise State | 23.0 | 11.3 | 5.9 | 15.4 | 7.8 | 12.7 | 19 |
| Ole Miss | -2.0 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 23.0 | 21.2 | 12.4 | 20 |
| Arkansas | 12.3 | 7.4 | 0.3 | 23.1 | 15.3 | 11.7 | 21 |
| UCLA | 3.0 | 8.9 | 14.4 | 19.0 | 12.4 | 11.6 | 22 |
| Auburn | 4.6 | -2.6 | 20.4 | 23.6 | 9.7 | 11.1 | 23 |
| Mississippi State | 2.4 | 6.4 | 13.4 | 17.8 | 15.0 | 11.0 | 24 |
| TCU | 11.6 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 19.4 | 11.4 | 10.9 | 25 |
| Team | 2011 S&P+ | 2012 S&P+ | 2013 S&P+ | 2014 S&P+ | 2015 S&P+ | 5-YEAR AVERAGE | Rk |
| Tennessee | 7.2 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 14.2 | 12.5 | 9.6 | 26 |
| Missouri | 10.8 | 7.5 | 18.7 | 13.0 | -2.9 | 9.4 | 27 |
| South Carolina | 9.8 | 15.8 | 17.5 | 7.9 | -4.1 | 9.4 | 28 |
| Penn State | 15.4 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 29 |
| Arizona State | 6.1 | 5.0 | 18.2 | 10.2 | 5.1 | 8.9 | 30 |
| Kansas State | 6.0 | 18.9 | 9.1 | 11.9 | -2.4 | 8.7 | 31 |
| Nebraska | 11.7 | 12.0 | 2.1 | 10.3 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 32 |
| Virginia Tech | 9.2 | 7.7 | 13.0 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 8.6 | 33 |
| Texas | 11.2 | 13.3 | 8.3 | 10.0 | -0.3 | 8.5 | 34 |
| BYU | 2.1 | 12.8 | 10.7 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 35 |
| Louisville | -0.1 | 3.3 | 13.4 | 12.9 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 36 |
| Miami-FL | 7.0 | 4.5 | 8.2 | 12.7 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 37 |
| Georgia Tech | 0.0 | 11.0 | 7.6 | 18.7 | 1.0 | 7.6 | 38 |
| Washington | 2.4 | 5.9 | 12.1 | -1.3 | 17.1 | 7.2 | 39 |
| Toledo | 16.1 | -0.9 | 7.7 | -0.3 | 12.9 | 7.1 | 40 |
| Utah State | -1.5 | 14.9 | 10.1 | 3.6 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 41 |
| North Carolina | 5.9 | 1.9 | 11.1 | 2.1 | 10.6 | 6.3 | 42 |
| Pittsburgh | 1.6 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 43 |
| Utah | 0.6 | -0.9 | 10.8 | 8.0 | 11.4 | 6.0 | 44 |
| Arizona | 0.8 | 8.4 | 11.3 | 9.5 | -0.8 | 5.8 | 45 |
| Georgia Southern | 2.0 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 46 | |||
| West Virginia | 7.4 | 6.6 | -8.2 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 5.2 | 47 |
| Iowa | 1.8 | 0.6 | 10.5 | -0.6 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 48 |
| Cincinnati | 3.6 | 4.8 | -0.3 | 8.8 | -0.5 | 3.3 | 49 |
| Houston | 9.6 | -4.6 | 7.0 | -5.8 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 50 |
| Team | 2011 S&P+ | 2012 S&P+ | 2013 S&P+ | 2014 S&P+ | 2015 S&P+ | 5-YEAR AVERAGE | Rk |
| California | 6.4 | 2.9 | -7.9 | 0.3 | 9.9 | 2.3 | 51 |
| Texas Tech | -3.7 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 52 |
| Marshall | -0.5 | -8.1 | 3.0 | 14.1 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 53 |
| Navy | -2.8 | -6.0 | 0.8 | 5.7 | 13.0 | 2.1 | 54 |
| Minnesota | -3.5 | -2.0 | -2.8 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 2.0 | 55 |
| Northern Illinois | 4.4 | 4.1 | 0.6 | -2.2 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 56 |
| Oregon State | -1.1 | 13.2 | 7.5 | -1.1 | -11.4 | 1.4 | 57 |
| Boston College | -1.1 | -6.7 | 4.8 | 8.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 58 |
| Bowling Green | -0.1 | -4.0 | 4.7 | -9.1 | 14.2 | 1.1 | 59 |
| Syracuse | -2.2 | 7.0 | 2.4 | -2.0 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 60 |
| Northwestern | -3.5 | 6.3 | 0.7 | -3.9 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 61 |
| San Diego State | -0.5 | 4.0 | -3.5 | -2.9 | 7.3 | 0.9 | 62 |
| NC State | -4.1 | -3.4 | -2.0 | 4.0 | 9.7 | 0.8 | 63 |
| Western Kentucky | -10.7 | -2.8 | -4.7 | 3.9 | 17.5 | 0.6 | 64 |
| Louisiana Tech | 5.5 | 4.2 | -23.2 | 9.9 | 5.8 | 0.4 | 65 |
| Duke | -1.5 | -1.7 | 6.1 | -1.0 | -0.6 | 0.3 | 66 |
| Vanderbilt | 11.3 | 3.3 | -0.1 | -10.9 | -2.3 | 0.3 | 67 |
| Arkansas State | -1.4 | 4.6 | -2.2 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 0.2 | 68 |
| Virginia | -1.2 | -6.3 | -1.5 | 7.9 | -0.3 | -0.3 | 69 |
| Central Florida | 2.2 | 8.0 | 10.3 | -0.8 | -22.3 | -0.5 | 70 |
| Iowa State | 0.9 | 5.0 | -1.8 | -8.3 | 0.5 | -0.7 | 71 |
| East Carolina | -1.0 | -5.9 | 4.2 | -0.9 | -0.7 | -0.9 | 72 |
| Illinois | 2.5 | -9.3 | -1.4 | -0.1 | 3.7 | -0.9 | 73 |
| Temple | 4.2 | -9.5 | -8.9 | -0.3 | 6.9 | -1.5 | 74 |
| Indiana | -14.5 | -4.8 | 10.3 | -3.9 | 3.9 | -1.8 | 75 |
| Team | 2011 S&P+ | 2012 S&P+ | 2013 S&P+ | 2014 S&P+ | 2015 S&P+ | 5-YEAR AVERAGE | Rk |
| Tulsa | 12.6 | 3.1 | -3.1 | -15.5 | -6.8 | -2.0 | 76 |
| Maryland | -3.2 | -10.9 | -1.3 | 3.3 | 1.8 | -2.1 | 77 |
| Fresno State | -6.9 | 9.0 | 6.9 | -9.7 | -9.8 | -2.1 | 78 |
| South Florida | 5.0 | -0.7 | -8.5 | -13.7 | 6.5 | -2.3 | 79 |
| Appalachian State | -12.5 | 7.7 | -2.4 | 80 | |||
| Washington State | -9.0 | -9.7 | 3.7 | -0.5 | 2.9 | -2.5 | 81 |
| Purdue | -2.2 | -1.3 | -4.0 | -2.1 | -3.9 | -2.7 | 82 |
| Nevada | 2.4 | -3.8 | -2.9 | -2.2 | -8.8 | -3.1 | 83 |
| Rutgers | 2.2 | -0.1 | -5.8 | -0.6 | -12.4 | -3.3 | 84 |
| San Jose State | -7.2 | 11.3 | -4.0 | -13.6 | -4.4 | -3.6 | 85 |
| Kentucky | -6.4 | -3.3 | -3.4 | 1.5 | -6.9 | -3.7 | 86 |
| Western Michigan | 1.4 | -11.2 | -18.1 | 0.1 | 5.9 | -4.4 | 87 |
| Memphis | -27.3 | -5.6 | -3.0 | 5.1 | 5.8 | -5.0 | 88 |
| Ball State | -0.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | -14.2 | -14.2 | -5.0 | 89 |
| Ohio | -3.4 | -7.8 | -6.5 | -9.4 | 1.6 | -5.1 | 90 |
| Southern Miss | 6.7 | -10.7 | -16.0 | -10.7 | 5.0 | -5.2 | 91 |
| Air Force | -6.3 | -13.0 | -15.0 | 2.2 | 5.9 | -5.2 | 92 |
| Wake Forest | 0.0 | -8.5 | -0.7 | -12.4 | -4.9 | -5.3 | 93 |
| UL-Lafayette | -8.3 | -1.4 | -7.0 | 0.4 | -13.0 | -5.8 | 94 |
| SMU | 5.6 | 1.6 | -5.2 | -19.3 | -12.0 | -5.9 | 95 |
| Colorado State | -15.7 | -10.1 | -4.2 | 2.0 | -2.1 | -6.0 | 96 |
| Connecticut | -3.0 | -3.7 | -6.3 | -16.3 | -3.9 | -6.6 | 97 |
| Kent State | -4.3 | 1.4 | -6.4 | -9.7 | -15.2 | -6.8 | 98 |
| Rice | -7.0 | -9.9 | 0.3 | -1.5 | -17.9 | -7.2 | 99 |
| Middle Tennessee | -19.8 | -7.1 | -6.5 | -4.3 | -2.2 | -8.0 | 100 |
| Team | 2011 S&P+ | 2012 S&P+ | 2013 S&P+ | 2014 S&P+ | 2015 S&P+ | 5-YEAR AVERAGE | Rk |
| Colorado | -7.1 | -16.4 | -6.7 | -1.9 | -8.5 | -8.1 | 101 |
| South Alabama | -21.4 | 0.3 | -2.8 | -11.4 | -8.8 | 102 | |
| Troy | -13.9 | -2.1 | -8.9 | -18.1 | -4.5 | -9.5 | 103 |
| Central Michigan | -11.5 | -13.3 | -16.7 | -5.4 | -0.9 | -9.6 | 104 |
| North Texas | -6.3 | -7.4 | 8.1 | -20.5 | -23.0 | -9.8 | 105 |
| Florida Atlantic | -22.5 | -9.8 | -2.0 | -9.1 | -6.1 | -9.9 | 106 |
| Buffalo | -13.4 | -9.4 | -1.0 | -18.8 | -7.2 | -9.9 | 107 |
| Kansas | -7.7 | -4.0 | -8.8 | -7.1 | -22.5 | -10.0 | 108 |
| UTSA | -17.3 | 3.1 | -12.1 | -14.4 | -10.2 | 109 | |
| UL-Monroe | -7.0 | -5.2 | -11.1 | -8.0 | -20.0 | -10.3 | 110 |
| Wyoming | -7.5 | -9.6 | -11.6 | -11.2 | -14.6 | -10.9 | 111 |
| Akron | -22.1 | -14.3 | -6.6 | -10.9 | -1.7 | -11.1 | 112 |
| UNLV | -13.3 | -12.0 | -3.6 | -15.0 | -12.6 | -11.3 | 113 |
| Texas State | -6.4 | -14.8 | -11.0 | -14.3 | -11.6 | 114 | |
| Miami-OH | 0.2 | -10.5 | -24.4 | -9.6 | -15.9 | -12.0 | 115 |
| Florida International | -5.9 | -5.2 | -24.2 | -12.3 | -13.3 | -12.2 | 116 |
| UTEP | -3.5 | -10.4 | -22.3 | -4.5 | -22.4 | -12.6 | 117 |
| Tulane | -22.4 | -14.9 | -0.2 | -7.5 | -18.2 | -12.6 | 118 |
| Georgia State | -22.6 | -11.5 | -4.7 | -12.9 | 119 | ||
| Hawaii | -10.3 | -15.0 | -4.6 | -18.8 | -16.1 | -13.0 | 120 |
| Old Dominion | -15.1 | -10.6 | -13.8 | -13.2 | 121 | ||
| New Mexico | -22.8 | -13.6 | -13.1 | -6.5 | -10.6 | -13.3 | 122 |
| Idaho | -15.4 | -14.8 | -18.4 | -11.6 | -13.5 | -14.7 | 123 |
| Army | -6.3 | -14.5 | -17.6 | -19.8 | -20.9 | -15.8 | 124 |
| Massachusetts | -20.8 | -20.1 | -17.5 | -8.1 | -16.6 | 125 | |
| Eastern Michigan | -12.8 | -9.4 | -22.4 | -24.6 | -18.3 | -17.5 | 126 |
| New Mexico State | -12.2 | -18.8 | -27.9 | -21.4 | -15.7 | -19.2 | 127 |
| Charlotte | -21.7 | -21.7 | 128 | ||||
For projections, I have previously used a weighted version of S&P+ that features recent seasons more heavily. But because of the way I have changed recording returning production -- shifting to "percentage of production returning" instead of simply "returning starters" -- and because of the enhanced weight this piece will receive in this year's projections, I'm finding better correlations by using a flat average. The returning production piece seems to offer all the necessary extra weight for 2015.
These averages paint you a pretty specific picture. Teams 2-6 are within one point of each other, and teams 7-14 are within 2.5 points of each other. Meanwhile, No. 1 is in a class of its own. There are unique challengers every year, but Alabama is guaranteed to occupy one of the top two spots in the ratings each and every year.
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