We all love looking at preseason polls and projections. What I don't do enough of is look at how those projections fleshed out.
I compared Bill Connelly's S&P+ projections from August to the current ratings as of December 3, 2016.
It was a good year for football in Colorado.
On the Money - Closest to Projections
| Team | Pre-Season S&P+ | Pre-Season Rk | Actual S&P+ | Actual Rk | S&P+ Diff. | Rk Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | 11.1 | 30 | 11.1 | 22 | 0.0 | +8 |
| UL-Monroe | -20.2 | 127 | -20.0 | 126 | 0.2 | +1 |
| Georgia St. | -10.8 | 104 | -10.6 | 106 | 0.2 | -2 |
| South Florida | 7.3 | 42 | 7.5 | 39 | 0.2 | +3 |
| Minnesota | 8.3 | 38 | 7.8 | 37 | -0.5 | +1 |
| Iowa St. | -0.2 | 75 | -0.7 | 67 | -0.5 | +8 |
| Charlotte | -17.5 | 121 | -18.2 | 124 | -0.7 | -3 |
| Central Michigan | -3.1 | 80 | -3.9 | 81 | -0.8 | -1 |
| Kent St. | -11.4 | 106 | -12.2 | 113 | -0.8 | -7 |
| Utah | 8.2 | 39 | 7.3 | 40 | -0.9 | -1 |
Hopes-and-Dreams Crushers - Farthest BELOW Projections
| Team | Pre-Season S&P+ | Pre-Season Rk | Actual S&P+ | Actual Rk | S&P+ Diff. | Rk Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 17.9 | 12 | -0.6 | 66 | -18.5 | -54 |
| Oregon | 17.6 | 14 | -0.8 | 69 | -18.4 | -55 |
| Texas St. | -16.7 | 120 | -34.1 | 128 | -17.4 | -8 |
| Baylor | 14.9 | 19 | -1.4 | 73 | -16.3 | -54 |
| Bowling Green | 2.5 | 61 | -12.9 | 116 | -15.4 | -55 |
| UCLA | 17.4 | 15 | 2.2 | 57 | -15.2 | -42 |
| Marshall | 0.1 | 73 | -14.6 | 119 | -14.7 | -46 |
| Arkansas | 16.9 | 17 | 3.6 | 53 | -13.3 | -36 |
| Rutgers | -4.0 | 83 | -16.5 | 120 | -12.5 | -37 |
| Tennessee | 19.2 | 8 | 7.1 | 43 | -12.1 | -35 |
Others Breaking Hearts: Ole Miss, Michigan St., Mississippi St., Nevada, Syracuse
Bringers of Joy and Happiness - Farthest ABOVE Projections
| Team | Pre-Season S&P+ | Pre-Season Rk | Actual S&P+ | Actual Rk | S&P+ Diff. | Rk Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado St. | -8.0 | 96 | 10.9 | 23 | +18.9 | +73 |
| Colorado | -4.2 | 86 | 13.4 | 17 | +17.6 | +69 |
| Army | -19.9 | 124 | -4.2 | 82 | +15.7 | +42 |
| Wyoming | -14.0 | 110 | -0.8 | 68 | +13.2 | +42 |
| Eastern Michigan | -17.9 | 122 | -4.9 | 84 | +13.0 | +38 |
| Tulsa | -6.4 | 92 | 5.8 | 47 | +12.2 | +45 |
| Miami-OH | -14.1 | 111 | -2.8 | 78 | +11.3 | +33 |
| Tulane | -20.0 | 126 | -8.8 | 102 | +11.2 | +24 |
| Old Dominion | -10.6 | 103 | -0.3 | 63 | +10.3 | +40 |
| Temple | 2.8 | 60 | 12.9 | 18 | +10.1 | +42 |
Others Spreading Delight: Troy, North Texas, New Mexico, Western Kentucky, Ohio St.
