S&P+ had itself a decent, unspectacular week in Week 12. Absolute error went up, but the picks still went 30-27 (53%). And I’m thinking part of the reason for the spike in error was that college football just got weird.
Kind of a funky week beneath the surface. 9 teams covered by 28 points or more. Only about 4 teams per week were doing that of late.— Bill Connelly (@SBN_BillC) November 20, 2016
The Big 12 was especially wild: Kansas State covered by 23.5, Oklahma by 25, Kansas by 27, Oklahoma State by 29, and Iowa State by 59. And in a show that it really is Big 12-caliber, Houston covered by 40 for good measure. Throw in Arkansas State (covered by 40), BGSU (38), Pitt (34.5), Vandy (31), NMSU (30.5), and Navy (28), and you’ve got yourself a crazy week.
Nothing like the sport showing signs of volatility before Hate Week. Should be fun.
As your weekly refresher, I’ve been playing with standard deviations and volatility to see if I can come up with a way to determine which picks are most likely to succeed in a given week. The results have been mixed, but on we go.
- Fournette-Nkemdiche Picks — Week 12: 2-3 (80%) | Season to date: 19-13-3 (59%)
- All-Conference Picks — Week 12: 1-2 (33%) | Season to date: 19-13-1 (59%)
- YOU-CAN-WIN-WITH-THEM-IF-YOU’RE-A-GOOD-DEVELOPER-OF-TALENT PICKS— 4-5 (44%) | Season to date: 39-27 (59%)
If nothing else, these picks have fallen into line nicely. 59% across the board. The F-N Picks are supposed to be the most slam-dunkish of the bunch and are clearly not (usually because when S&P+ and Vegas disagree by this much, there’s an injured quarterback involved), but still ... 59% is good. I still like the volatility concept even if I’m not sure how to steer it yet.
This week’s picks:
FOURNETTE-NKEMDICHE PICKS (the top 5 most likely covers of the week)
- Rice (+35.5) at Stanford
- Troy (-27) at Texas State
- Clemson (-24) vs. South Carolina
- Colorado State (+11.5) at San Diego State
- Ball State (+7.5) at Miami-Ohio (success!)
None qualified this week.
- Cincinnati (+22.5) at Tulsa
- Utah State (+18.5) at BYU
- Penn State (-12) vs. Michigan State
- Michigan (+6.5) at Ohio State
- Washington (-6) at Washington State
- Notre Dame (+17) at USC
- Appalachian State (-17.5) at New Mexico State
- North Texas (-3) at UTEP
- South Alabama (+5.5) at Idaho
- Georgia Tech (+4) at Georgia
- UNLV (-8.5) vs. Nevada
- Missouri (+8) vs. Arkansas
- EMU (+1) vs. CMU (success!)
- Kansas (+27) at Kansas State
Here’s the updated Google doc with all picks. Once again, there are three sets listed: S&P+, Weighted S&P+ (which went 29-24-3 last week, not quite as good as overall S&P+), and F/+. And, as always, here’s a completely useless embed, just for fun: