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Florida State at Miami: Advanced stats tale of the tape

By Bill C.
Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

Florida State Seminoles (3-2) vs. Miami Hurricanes (4-0)

October 08, 2016 (8:00 PM ET, ABC)
Spread: Miami -3
S&P+ Projection: Miami (35.5-32.0)

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category Florida State Miami
S&P+ (Rk) 13 10
Category Florida State offense Miami defense Miami offense Florida State defense
Yards per play (Rk) 6.07 (40) 3.35 (1) 7.57 (4) 6.95 (127)
Yards per game (Rk) 496.4 (25) 245.8 (5) 448.3 (47) 453.4 (103)
Points per possession (Rk) 3.09 (20) 0.80 (2) 3.55 (7) 2.68 (110)
Category Florida State offense Miami defense Miami offense Florida State defense
S&P+ (Rk) 45.4 (3) 18.7 (11) 35.6 (30) 31.7 (79)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 124.2 (15) 112.7 (32) 111.6 (40) 101.2 (65)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 132.1 (13) 145.6 (4) 133.1 (10) 106.7 (52)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 116.7 (24) 116.8 (23) 115.5 (26) 109.4 (34)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 173.1 (4) 121.3 (28) 130.2 (24) 96.1 (79)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 152.0 (7) 171.8 (3) 111.9 (55) 101.5 (65)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 111.5 (48) 105.4 (59) 108.9 (54) 103.4 (64)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 134.5 (13) 105.5 (54) 133.1 (17) 142.5 (11)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 107.5 (50) 138.5 (4) 142.8 (2) 96.8 (71)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

Florida State

  1. Passing Efficiency (Success Rate+) (No. 22 defense vs. No. 104 offense)
  2. Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate+) (No. 39 defense vs. No. 116 offense)
  3. Second Down S&P+ (No. 11 offense vs. No. 86 defense)
  4. Efficiency (Success Rate+) (No. 36 defense vs. No. 106 offense)
  5. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 31 offense vs. No. 95 defense)

Miami

  1. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 16 defense vs. No. 107 offense)
  2. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 8 defense vs. No. 84 offense)
  3. Redzone S&P+ (No. 16 offense vs. No. 81 defense)
  4. Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 4 offense vs. No. 69 defense)
  5. Adj. Line Yards (No. 20 defense vs. No. 83 offense)
Five Factors
Category Florida State offense Miami defense Miami offense Florida State defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.37 (40) 1.12 (16) 1.68 (1) 1.40 (105)
EFFICIENCY 51.2% (6) 32.2% (13) 47.4% (20) 48.2% (120)
FIELD POSITION 31.2 (41) 25.4 (11) 35.9 (7) 27.7 (45)
FINISHING DRIVES 4.8 (64) 3.1 (9) 6.1 (6) 5.5 (116)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
Florida State -0.74 (87)
Miami 5.63 (1)		 ACTUAL
Florida State 7 (5)
Miami 3 (27)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Florida State offense Miami offense
Adj. Pace 5.3 (31) -14.2 (127)
Plays per game 81.8 (25) 59.3 (127)
Possessions per game 13.4 (56) 13.3 (63)
Std. Downs Run Rate 59.7% (60) 58.5% (70)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 23.6% (114) 30.8% (77)
% of solo tackles 75.6% (55) 82.9% (14)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Florida State defense Miami defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 53.8% (98) 73.0% (6)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 31.3% (81) 37.3% (40)
Overall Havoc Rate 15.0% (90) 24.4% (2)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 9.9% (55) 18.4% (1)
DB Havoc Rate 4.8% (107) 5.5% (94)
PD to INC 25.9% (109) 37.3% (35)

When Florida State has the ball…

Standard Downs
Florida State Offense Miami Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 116.7 24 116.8 23
Standard Downs Success Rate 51.6% 25 41.0% 24
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.22 37 1.33 4 Miami
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.14 49 2.00 7 Miami
SD Sack Rate 8% 107 9.1% 16 Miami big
Passing Downs
Florida State Offense Miami Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 173.1 4 121.3 28 Florida State
Passing Downs Success Rate 50.0% 3 19.3% 8
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.76 63 1.61 77 Florida State
PD Line Yards per Carry 4.02 19 3.65 98 Florida State big
PD Sack Rate 9.1% 84 15.4% 8 Miami big

When Miami has the ball…

Standard Downs
Miami Offense Florida State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 115.5 26 109.4 34
Standard Downs Success Rate 50.4% 40 50.6% 105 Miami big
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.51 3 0.90 115 Miami big
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.16 46 3.27 108 Miami big
SD Sack Rate 2% 26 9.7% 13 Florida State
Passing Downs
Miami Offense Florida State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 130.2 24 96.1 79 Miami big
Passing Downs Success Rate 40.4% 13 42.2% 124 Miami big
Passing Downs IsoPPP 2.20 11 1.78 43 Miami
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.39 61 4.26 120 Miami big
PD Sack Rate 0% 1 11.4% 25 Miami
Individual Passing Stats
Team Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate		 Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Florida State Deondre Francois 6'2, 205 FR 96 153 1323 7 2 62.7% 15 8.9% 7.2
Florida State J.J. Cosentino 6'5, 230 SO 2 9 19 1 0 22.2% 1 10.0% 1.4
Miami Brad Kaaya 6'4, 215 JR 63 95 935 8 3 66.3% 2 2.1% 9.5
Miami Malik Rosier 6'1, 215 SO 2 4 32 0 0 50.0% 0 0.0% 8.0
Individual Rushing Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry		 Hlt Yds/
Opp.		 Opp.
Rate
Florida State Dalvin Cook RB 5'11, 213 JR 107 635 7 5.9 6.1 40.2%
Florida State Jacques Patrick RB 6'2, 231 SO 39 253 3 6.5 7.3 38.5%
Florida State Deondre Francois QB 6'2, 205 FR 32 244 2 7.6 10.2 43.8%
Florida State Freddie Stevenson FB 6'1, 241 SR 7 20 3 2.9 3.9 28.6%
Miami Mark Walton RB 5'9, 205 SO 63 445 8 7.1 8.7 41.3%
Miami Joseph Yearby RB 5'9, 200 JR 44 321 5 7.3 7.2 47.7%
Miami Gus Edwards RB 6'1, 230 JR 13 127 1 9.8 13.3 46.2%
Miami Travis Homer RB 5'11, 200 FR 5 35 0 7.0 4.3 60.0%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Individual Receiving Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch		 Yds/
Target		 Catch Rate
Florida State Jesus Wilson WR 5'10, 184 SR 36 22 340 1 15.5 9.4 61.1%
Florida State Travis Rudolph WR 6'1, 192 JR 29 17 242 3 14.2 8.3 58.6%
Florida State Dalvin Cook RB 5'11, 213 JR 26 20 311 0 15.6 12.0 76.9%
Florida State Kermit Whitfield WR 5'8, 182 SR 16 9 78 0 8.7 4.9 56.2%
Florida State Ryan Izzo TE 6'5, 245 SO 13 10 138 1 13.8 10.6 76.9%
Florida State Auden Tate WR 6'5, 225 SO 11 5 84 3 16.8 7.6 45.5%
Florida State Nyqwan Murray WR 5'11, 176 SO 9 5 46 0 9.2 5.1 55.6%
Miami Stacy Coley WR 6'1, 195 SR 24 15 211 4 14.1 8.8 62.5%
Miami Ahmmon Richards WR 6'1, 192 FR 16 11 246 1 22.4 15.4 68.8%
Miami David Njoku TE 6'4, 245 JR 12 7 133 1 19.0 11.1 58.3%
Miami Mark Walton RB 5'9, 205 SO 10 4 28 0 7.0 2.8 40.0%
Miami Christopher Herndon IV TE 6'4, 253 JR 9 7 128 1 18.3 14.2 77.8%
Miami Dayall Harris WR 6'3, 200 SO 7 6 54 0 9.0 7.7 85.7%
Miami Joseph Yearby RB 5'9, 200 JR 6 6 54 0 9.0 9.0 100.0%
Individual Defensive Stats
Team Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Florida State Matthew Thomas LB 6'3, 227 JR 25.5 11.1% 3.0 0.0 0 1 1 0
Florida State DeMarcus Walker DE 6'4, 280 SR 19.0 8.3% 6.5 6.5 0 0 3 0
Florida State Trey Marshall DB 6'0, 210 JR 19.0 8.3% 1.0 0.0 0 1 0 0
Florida State Marcus Lewis DB 6'1, 190 SO 16.5 7.2% 1.0 0.0 1 2 0 0
Florida State Nate Andrews DB 6'0, 214 SR 14.5 6.3% 0.0 0.0 1 0 0 0
Florida State Jacob Pugh LB 6'4, 229 JR 14.0 6.1% 2.5 1.5 0 0 0 0
Florida State Ro'Derrick Hoskins LB 6'2, 240 JR 13.5 5.9% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Florida State Derwin James DB 6'3, 211 SO 10.0 4.3% 0.0 0.0 1 0 0 0
Florida State Walvenski Aime DT 6'5, 300 SO 8.5 3.7% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Florida State Marquez White DB 6'0, 184 SR 8.5 3.7% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Florida State Dontavious Jackson LB 6'2, 249 FR 7.5 3.3% 1.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Florida State Brian Burns DE 6'5, 218 FR 7.0 3.0% 4.0 3.0 0 0 1 0
Florida State Fredrick Jones DT 6'3, 298 SO 6.5 2.8% 1.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Miami Jamal Carter, Sr. DB 6'1, 215 SR 18.5 8.2% 0.0 0.0 0 1 0 0
Miami Rayshawn Jenkins DB 6'2, 210 SR 18.0 8.0% 1.0 0.5 1 1 0 0
Miami Shaquille Quarterman LB 6'1, 240 FR 16.0 7.1% 4.5 0.0 0 0 0 1
Miami Michael Pinckney LB 6'1, 220 FR 16.0 7.1% 3.0 2.5 1 1 0 0
Miami Demetrius Jackson DL 6'3, 265 SO 14.5 6.4% 5.0 2.0 0 1 0 0
Miami Corn Elder DB 5'10, 180 SR 14.5 6.4% 1.0 1.0 1 3 0 0
Miami Jaquan Johnson DB 5'11, 190 SO 14.0 6.2% 2.5 1.5 0 0 0 0
Miami Chad Thomas DL 6'6, 265 JR 12.5 5.5% 5.0 2.0 0 2 0 0
Miami RJ McIntosh DL 6'4, 290 SO 11.5 5.1% 4.0 0.5 0 1 0 0
Miami Kendrick Norton DL 6'3, 305 SO 10.5 4.7% 4.5 0.0 0 0 0 0
Miami Gerald Willis DL 6'4, 285 SO 8.5 3.8% 4.5 1.0 0 0 0 0
Miami Sheldrick Redwine DB 6'1, 195 SO 7.0 3.1% 0.0 0.0 0 2 0 0
Miami Trent Harris DL 6'2, 250 JR 6.5 2.9% 3.0 2.0 0 0 1 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Florida State Logan Tyler 6'0, 201 FR 17 42.9 0 4 3 41.2%
Miami Justin Vogel 6'4, 215 SR 16 43.3 1 7 6 81.3%
Team Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches		 Onside
Att		 Onside
Success
Florida State Logan Tyler 6'0, 201 FR 42 64.7 27 64.3% 0 0 0 0
Miami Michael Badgley 5'10, 180 JR 32 63.3 15 46.9% 0 1 0 0
Team Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Florida State Ricky Aguayo 6'2, 196 FR 24-24 11-15 73.3%
Miami Michael Badgley 5'10, 180 JR 26-26 2-4 50.0%
Team Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Florida State Kermit Whitfield 5'8, 182 SR 14 26.4 0 0 0 (0)
Florida State Ryan Green 5'11, 204 JR 1 6.0 0 0 0 (0)
Miami Braxton Berrios 5'9, 185 JR 1 32.0 0 0 0 (0)
Miami Malcolm Lewis 5'10, 190 SR 1 28.0 0 0 0 (0)
Team Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Florida State Jesus Wilson 5'10, 184 SR 7 20.4 1 7 1 (0)
Florida State Nyqwan Murray 5'11, 176 SO 0 0.0 0 1 0 (0)
Miami Braxton Berrios 5'9, 185 JR 8 11.1 1 12 0 (0)
Miami Pat Bethel 6'3, 260 FR 1 13.0 0 0 0 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics

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