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Florida State Seminoles (3-2) vs. Miami Hurricanes (4-0)
October 08, 2016 (8:00 PM ET, ABC)
Spread: Miami -3
S&P+ Projection: Miami (35.5-32.0)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
Category | Florida State | Miami | ||
S&P+ (Rk) | 13 | 10 | ||
Category | Florida State offense | Miami defense | Miami offense | Florida State defense |
Yards per play (Rk) | 6.07 (40) | 3.35 (1) | 7.57 (4) | 6.95 (127) |
Yards per game (Rk) | 496.4 (25) | 245.8 (5) | 448.3 (47) | 453.4 (103) |
Points per possession (Rk) | 3.09 (20) | 0.80 (2) | 3.55 (7) | 2.68 (110) |
Category | Florida State offense | Miami defense | Miami offense | Florida State defense |
S&P+ (Rk) | 45.4 (3) | 18.7 (11) | 35.6 (30) | 31.7 (79) |
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 124.2 (15) | 112.7 (32) | 111.6 (40) | 101.2 (65) |
Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 132.1 (13) | 145.6 (4) | 133.1 (10) | 106.7 (52) |
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 116.7 (24) | 116.8 (23) | 115.5 (26) | 109.4 (34) |
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 173.1 (4) | 121.3 (28) | 130.2 (24) | 96.1 (79) |
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 152.0 (7) | 171.8 (3) | 111.9 (55) | 101.5 (65) |
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 111.5 (48) | 105.4 (59) | 108.9 (54) | 103.4 (64) |
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 134.5 (13) | 105.5 (54) | 133.1 (17) | 142.5 (11) |
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 107.5 (50) | 138.5 (4) | 142.8 (2) | 96.8 (71) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Florida State
- Passing Efficiency (Success Rate+) (No. 22 defense vs. No. 104 offense)
- Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate+) (No. 39 defense vs. No. 116 offense)
- Second Down S&P+ (No. 11 offense vs. No. 86 defense)
- Efficiency (Success Rate+) (No. 36 defense vs. No. 106 offense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 31 offense vs. No. 95 defense)
Miami
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 16 defense vs. No. 107 offense)
- Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 8 defense vs. No. 84 offense)
- Redzone S&P+ (No. 16 offense vs. No. 81 defense)
- Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 4 offense vs. No. 69 defense)
- Adj. Line Yards (No. 20 defense vs. No. 83 offense)
Five Factors
Category | Florida State offense | Miami defense | Miami offense | Florida State defense |
EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.37 (40) | 1.12 (16) | 1.68 (1) | 1.40 (105) |
EFFICIENCY | 51.2% (6) | 32.2% (13) | 47.4% (20) | 48.2% (120) |
FIELD POSITION | 31.2 (41) | 25.4 (11) | 35.9 (7) | 27.7 (45) |
FINISHING DRIVES | 4.8 (64) | 3.1 (9) | 6.1 (6) | 5.5 (116) |
TURNOVER MARGIN |
EXPECTED: Florida State -0.74 (87) Miami 5.63 (1) |
ACTUAL Florida State 7 (5) Miami 3 (27) |
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) | Florida State offense | Miami offense |
Adj. Pace | 5.3 (31) | -14.2 (127) |
Plays per game | 81.8 (25) | 59.3 (127) |
Possessions per game | 13.4 (56) | 13.3 (63) |
Std. Downs Run Rate | 59.7% (60) | 58.5% (70) |
Pass. Downs Run Rate | 23.6% (114) | 30.8% (77) |
% of solo tackles | 75.6% (55) | 82.9% (14) |
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) | Florida State defense | Miami defense |
Std. Downs Run Rate | 53.8% (98) | 73.0% (6) |
Pass. Downs Run Rate | 31.3% (81) | 37.3% (40) |
Overall Havoc Rate | 15.0% (90) | 24.4% (2) |
Front 7 Havoc Rate | 9.9% (55) | 18.4% (1) |
DB Havoc Rate | 4.8% (107) | 5.5% (94) |
PD to INC | 25.9% (109) | 37.3% (35) |
When Florida State has the ball…
Standard Downs
Florida State Offense | Miami Defense | ||||
Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
Standard Downs S&P+ | 116.7 | 24 | 116.8 | 23 | |
Standard Downs Success Rate | 51.6% | 25 | 41.0% | 24 | |
Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.22 | 37 | 1.33 | 4 | Miami |
SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.14 | 49 | 2.00 | 7 | Miami |
SD Sack Rate | 8% | 107 | 9.1% | 16 | Miami big |
Passing Downs
Florida State Offense | Miami Defense | ||||
Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
Passing Downs S&P+ | 173.1 | 4 | 121.3 | 28 | Florida State |
Passing Downs Success Rate | 50.0% | 3 | 19.3% | 8 | |
Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.76 | 63 | 1.61 | 77 | Florida State |
PD Line Yards per Carry | 4.02 | 19 | 3.65 | 98 | Florida State big |
PD Sack Rate | 9.1% | 84 | 15.4% | 8 | Miami big |
When Miami has the ball…
Standard Downs
Miami Offense | Florida State Defense | ||||
Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
Standard Downs S&P+ | 115.5 | 26 | 109.4 | 34 | |
Standard Downs Success Rate | 50.4% | 40 | 50.6% | 105 | Miami big |
Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.51 | 3 | 0.90 | 115 | Miami big |
SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.16 | 46 | 3.27 | 108 | Miami big |
SD Sack Rate | 2% | 26 | 9.7% | 13 | Florida State |
Passing Downs
Miami Offense | Florida State Defense | ||||
Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
Passing Downs S&P+ | 130.2 | 24 | 96.1 | 79 | Miami big |
Passing Downs Success Rate | 40.4% | 13 | 42.2% | 124 | Miami big |
Passing Downs IsoPPP | 2.20 | 11 | 1.78 | 43 | Miami |
PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.39 | 61 | 4.26 | 120 | Miami big |
PD Sack Rate | 0% | 1 | 11.4% | 25 | Miami |
Individual Passing Stats
Team | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate |
Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
Florida State | Deondre Francois | 6'2, 205 | FR | 96 | 153 | 1323 | 7 | 2 | 62.7% | 15 | 8.9% | 7.2 |
Florida State | J.J. Cosentino | 6'5, 230 | SO | 2 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 22.2% | 1 | 10.0% | 1.4 |
Miami | Brad Kaaya | 6'4, 215 | JR | 63 | 95 | 935 | 8 | 3 | 66.3% | 2 | 2.1% | 9.5 |
Miami | Malik Rosier | 6'1, 215 | SO | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 50.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 8.0 |
Individual Rushing Stats
Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry |
Hlt Yds/ Opp. |
Opp. Rate |
Florida State | Dalvin Cook | RB | 5'11, 213 | JR | 107 | 635 | 7 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 40.2% |
Florida State | Jacques Patrick | RB | 6'2, 231 | SO | 39 | 253 | 3 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 38.5% |
Florida State | Deondre Francois | QB | 6'2, 205 | FR | 32 | 244 | 2 | 7.6 | 10.2 | 43.8% |
Florida State | Freddie Stevenson | FB | 6'1, 241 | SR | 7 | 20 | 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 28.6% |
Miami | Mark Walton | RB | 5'9, 205 | SO | 63 | 445 | 8 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 41.3% |
Miami | Joseph Yearby | RB | 5'9, 200 | JR | 44 | 321 | 5 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 47.7% |
Miami | Gus Edwards | RB | 6'1, 230 | JR | 13 | 127 | 1 | 9.8 | 13.3 | 46.2% |
Miami | Travis Homer | RB | 5'11, 200 | FR | 5 | 35 | 0 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 60.0% |
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. |
Individual Receiving Stats
Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch |
Yds/ Target |
Catch Rate |
Florida State | Jesus Wilson | WR | 5'10, 184 | SR | 36 | 22 | 340 | 1 | 15.5 | 9.4 | 61.1% |
Florida State | Travis Rudolph | WR | 6'1, 192 | JR | 29 | 17 | 242 | 3 | 14.2 | 8.3 | 58.6% |
Florida State | Dalvin Cook | RB | 5'11, 213 | JR | 26 | 20 | 311 | 0 | 15.6 | 12.0 | 76.9% |
Florida State | Kermit Whitfield | WR | 5'8, 182 | SR | 16 | 9 | 78 | 0 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 56.2% |
Florida State | Ryan Izzo | TE | 6'5, 245 | SO | 13 | 10 | 138 | 1 | 13.8 | 10.6 | 76.9% |
Florida State | Auden Tate | WR | 6'5, 225 | SO | 11 | 5 | 84 | 3 | 16.8 | 7.6 | 45.5% |
Florida State | Nyqwan Murray | WR | 5'11, 176 | SO | 9 | 5 | 46 | 0 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 55.6% |
Miami | Stacy Coley | WR | 6'1, 195 | SR | 24 | 15 | 211 | 4 | 14.1 | 8.8 | 62.5% |
Miami | Ahmmon Richards | WR | 6'1, 192 | FR | 16 | 11 | 246 | 1 | 22.4 | 15.4 | 68.8% |
Miami | David Njoku | TE | 6'4, 245 | JR | 12 | 7 | 133 | 1 | 19.0 | 11.1 | 58.3% |
Miami | Mark Walton | RB | 5'9, 205 | SO | 10 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 40.0% |
Miami | Christopher Herndon IV | TE | 6'4, 253 | JR | 9 | 7 | 128 | 1 | 18.3 | 14.2 | 77.8% |
Miami | Dayall Harris | WR | 6'3, 200 | SO | 7 | 6 | 54 | 0 | 9.0 | 7.7 | 85.7% |
Miami | Joseph Yearby | RB | 5'9, 200 | JR | 6 | 6 | 54 | 0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 100.0% |
Individual Defensive Stats
Team | Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
Florida State | Matthew Thomas | LB | 6'3, 227 | JR | 25.5 | 11.1% | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Florida State | DeMarcus Walker | DE | 6'4, 280 | SR | 19.0 | 8.3% | 6.5 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Florida State | Trey Marshall | DB | 6'0, 210 | JR | 19.0 | 8.3% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Florida State | Marcus Lewis | DB | 6'1, 190 | SO | 16.5 | 7.2% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Florida State | Nate Andrews | DB | 6'0, 214 | SR | 14.5 | 6.3% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Florida State | Jacob Pugh | LB | 6'4, 229 | JR | 14.0 | 6.1% | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Florida State | Ro'Derrick Hoskins | LB | 6'2, 240 | JR | 13.5 | 5.9% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Florida State | Derwin James | DB | 6'3, 211 | SO | 10.0 | 4.3% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Florida State | Walvenski Aime | DT | 6'5, 300 | SO | 8.5 | 3.7% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Florida State | Marquez White | DB | 6'0, 184 | SR | 8.5 | 3.7% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Florida State | Dontavious Jackson | LB | 6'2, 249 | FR | 7.5 | 3.3% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Florida State | Brian Burns | DE | 6'5, 218 | FR | 7.0 | 3.0% | 4.0 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Florida State | Fredrick Jones | DT | 6'3, 298 | SO | 6.5 | 2.8% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Miami | Jamal Carter, Sr. | DB | 6'1, 215 | SR | 18.5 | 8.2% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Miami | Rayshawn Jenkins | DB | 6'2, 210 | SR | 18.0 | 8.0% | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Miami | Shaquille Quarterman | LB | 6'1, 240 | FR | 16.0 | 7.1% | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Miami | Michael Pinckney | LB | 6'1, 220 | FR | 16.0 | 7.1% | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Miami | Demetrius Jackson | DL | 6'3, 265 | SO | 14.5 | 6.4% | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Miami | Corn Elder | DB | 5'10, 180 | SR | 14.5 | 6.4% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Miami | Jaquan Johnson | DB | 5'11, 190 | SO | 14.0 | 6.2% | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Miami | Chad Thomas | DL | 6'6, 265 | JR | 12.5 | 5.5% | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Miami | RJ McIntosh | DL | 6'4, 290 | SO | 11.5 | 5.1% | 4.0 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Miami | Kendrick Norton | DL | 6'3, 305 | SO | 10.5 | 4.7% | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Miami | Gerald Willis | DL | 6'4, 285 | SO | 8.5 | 3.8% | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Miami | Sheldrick Redwine | DB | 6'1, 195 | SO | 7.0 | 3.1% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Miami | Trent Harris | DL | 6'2, 250 | JR | 6.5 | 2.9% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. |
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
Florida State | Logan Tyler | 6'0, 201 | FR | 17 | 42.9 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 41.2% |
Miami | Justin Vogel | 6'4, 215 | SR | 16 | 43.3 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 81.3% |
Team | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches |
Onside Att |
Onside Success |
Florida State | Logan Tyler | 6'0, 201 | FR | 42 | 64.7 | 27 | 64.3% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Miami | Michael Badgley | 5'10, 180 | JR | 32 | 63.3 | 15 | 46.9% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Team | Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
Florida State | Ricky Aguayo | 6'2, 196 | FR | 24-24 | 11-15 | 73.3% |
Miami | Michael Badgley | 5'10, 180 | JR | 26-26 | 2-4 | 50.0% |
Team | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
Florida State | Kermit Whitfield | 5'8, 182 | SR | 14 | 26.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
Florida State | Ryan Green | 5'11, 204 | JR | 1 | 6.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
Miami | Braxton Berrios | 5'9, 185 | JR | 1 | 32.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
Miami | Malcolm Lewis | 5'10, 190 | SR | 1 | 28.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
Team | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
Florida State | Jesus Wilson | 5'10, 184 | SR | 7 | 20.4 | 1 | 7 | 1 (0) |
Florida State | Nyqwan Murray | 5'11, 176 | SO | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 (0) |
Miami | Braxton Berrios | 5'9, 185 | JR | 8 | 11.1 | 1 | 12 | 0 (0) |
Miami | Pat Bethel | 6'3, 260 | FR | 1 | 13.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics