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You have a different team every week. It is a Lou Holtzian truism that we are reminded of every single week of the college football season. A team beats a great opponent, then lays an egg against a lesser one. Good one week, mediocre the next, great the next, WTF the next.
When you rely on the whims of 20-year old males, you are going to find life rather maddening. Still, some teams are more frustrating and volatile than others. Some are all over the map, while others are reasonably steady. (“Steady” can be “steady good” or “steady bad,” mind you.)
My S&P+ ratings are designed to simplify. They are now presented in the form of an adjusted point total — No. 1 Ohio State’s plus-29.4 rating means the Buckeyes are 29.4 points better than the average team at the moment; No. 128 Charlotte is 21.1 points worse than average. This is designed to tell you that, on a neutral field, Ohio State would be expected to beat Charlotte by 50.5 points. And that’s fine. But the frequency of, say, a closer-than-expected 24-point win or an all-time, 77-point blowout is uncertain.
Because I am an endless tinkerer, I’ve been looking into ways to incorporate volatility (in this case, represented by standard deviation) into my S&P+ picks. I haven’t simulated as much as I need to to know my approach is going to work particularly well, but I thought I’d show my work and open up a conversation.
On the team stat profiles, I share a team’s adjusted scoring margin for a given game. It is intended to express, “Based on this game’s stats, you could have expected to win/lose this game by X points.” It is unadjusted for opponent. But if I actually adjust for opponent, I can come up with a pretty solid basis for a standard deviation figure.
If you’re curious, here are the standard deviations for FBS teams in both 2015 and 2016 (sorted by current 2016 average).
Team | 2016 Volatility | Rk | 2015 Volatility | Rk |
Idaho | 12.0 | 20 | 10.1 | 1 |
Washington State | 24.4 | 108 | 10.8 | 2 |
Old Dominion | 24.6 | 110 | 11.3 | 3 |
North Carolina | 13.5 | 33 | 13.0 | 4 |
San Diego State | 19.8 | 82 | 13.5 | 5 |
Western Michigan | 16.6 | 55 | 13.5 | 6 |
Indiana | 9.2 | 10 | 13.7 | 7 |
Minnesota | 8.7 | 7 | 13.9 | 8 |
Ohio State | 11.1 | 16 | 14.2 | 9 |
Central Michigan | 29.8 | 126 | 14.4 | 10 |
South Carolina | 16.0 | 49 | 14.5 | 11 |
Virginia | 23.8 | 104 | 14.6 | 12 |
Florida Atlantic | 17.6 | 61 | 14.9 | 13 |
South Florida | 18.3 | 67 | 15.1 | 14 |
UTEP | 25.7 | 112 | 15.1 | 15 |
Wyoming | 22.7 | 97 | 15.4 | 16 |
North Texas | 28.8 | 124 | 15.5 | 17 |
Alabama | 17.4 | 59 | 15.5 | 18 |
Tulsa | 23.6 | 102 | 15.5 | 19 |
Stanford | 33.0 | 127 | 15.7 | 20 |
Mississippi State | 18.2 | 66 | 15.8 | 21 |
Nevada | 22.5 | 96 | 15.9 | 22 |
Tennessee | 9.1 | 9 | 16.0 | 23 |
Bowling Green | 16.4 | 52 | 16.0 | 24 |
Clemson | 14.1 | 36 | 16.2 | 25 |
Team | 2016 Volatility | Rk | 2015 Volatility | Rk |
Toledo | 10.0 | 12 | 16.2 | 26 |
Florida State | 23.5 | 101 | 16.5 | 27 |
Pittsburgh | 12.0 | 22 | 16.5 | 28 |
Georgia State | 14.2 | 41 | 16.5 | 29 |
Western Kentucky | 19.4 | 76 | 16.6 | 30 |
Arkansas | 24.2 | 106 | 16.7 | 31 |
Connecticut | 8.6 | 6 | 16.8 | 32 |
Appalachian State | 24.5 | 109 | 16.9 | 33 |
Central Florida | 18.5 | 70 | 17.0 | 34 |
Oregon | 18.0 | 64 | 17.0 | 35 |
BYU | 9.2 | 11 | 17.3 | 36 |
Akron | 19.5 | 80 | 17.3 | 37 |
Houston | 13.3 | 30 | 17.4 | 38 |
Arkansas State | 16.4 | 51 | 17.4 | 39 |
Auburn | 21.2 | 89 | 17.5 | 40 |
Ball State | 21.0 | 87 | 17.8 | 41 |
Virginia Tech | 21.4 | 91 | 17.8 | 42 |
Kansas | 23.8 | 105 | 17.8 | 43 |
Nebraska | 13.3 | 31 | 18.0 | 44 |
Arizona State | 15.3 | 47 | 18.0 | 45 |
UL-Lafayette | 23.7 | 103 | 18.0 | 46 |
SMU | 17.9 | 63 | 18.1 | 47 |
Washington | 22.4 | 95 | 18.2 | 48 |
Buffalo | 13.2 | 29 | 18.2 | 49 |
Rice | 12.7 | 25 | 18.3 | 50 |
Team | 2016 Volatility | Rk | 2015 Volatility | Rk |
Southern Miss | 20.3 | 85 | 18.4 | 51 |
East Carolina | 15.9 | 48 | 18.6 | 52 |
Marshall | 33.9 | 128 | 18.7 | 53 |
Utah State | 18.6 | 71 | 18.7 | 54 |
UCLA | 10.1 | 13 | 18.7 | 55 |
Notre Dame | 13.6 | 34 | 18.8 | 56 |
UL-Monroe | 22.9 | 99 | 19.0 | 57 |
Ole Miss | 13.5 | 32 | 19.0 | 58 |
Massachusetts | 14.8 | 46 | 19.2 | 59 |
Navy | 17.1 | 57 | 19.3 | 60 |
Temple | 27.5 | 120 | 19.4 | 61 |
New Mexico State | 12.8 | 27 | 19.4 | 62 |
UTSA | 12.5 | 23 | 19.5 | 63 |
Maryland | 20.1 | 83 | 19.5 | 64 |
Louisville | 17.9 | 62 | 19.6 | 65 |
Baylor | 12.6 | 24 | 19.6 | 66 |
Oklahoma | 18.5 | 69 | 19.8 | 67 |
San Jose State | 19.4 | 78 | 19.9 | 68 |
Michigan State | 12.9 | 28 | 20.0 | 69 |
Hawaii | 27.4 | 119 | 20.1 | 70 |
Texas State | 25.8 | 113 | 20.2 | 71 |
Rutgers | 19.2 | 73 | 20.3 | 72 |
Miami (Ohio) | 7.8 | 4 | 20.3 | 73 |
Troy | 12.0 | 21 | 20.4 | 74 |
Texas | 10.8 | 14 | 20.5 | 75 |
Team | 2016 Volatility | Rk | 2015 Volatility | Rk |
Wake Forest | 14.2 | 38 | 20.5 | 76 |
Utah | 14.3 | 43 | 20.6 | 77 |
Fresno State | 26.9 | 116 | 20.7 | 78 |
Colorado State | 26.6 | 114 | 20.8 | 79 |
Eastern Michigan | 23.0 | 100 | 21.0 | 80 |
Colorado | 16.0 | 50 | 21.1 | 81 |
Oklahoma State | 19.4 | 77 | 21.2 | 82 |
Air Force | 16.4 | 53 | 21.2 | 83 |
Kentucky | 21.8 | 92 | 21.2 | 84 |
UNLV | 21.4 | 90 | 21.3 | 85 |
LSU | 17.0 | 56 | 21.4 | 86 |
Middle Tennessee | 16.6 | 54 | 21.5 | 87 |
Tulane | 14.2 | 39 | 21.5 | 88 |
Louisiana Tech | 11.8 | 19 | 21.5 | 89 |
Georgia | 19.2 | 75 | 21.5 | 90 |
Syracuse | 18.1 | 65 | 21.7 | 91 |
Texas Tech | 18.8 | 72 | 21.7 | 92 |
Iowa | 21.0 | 88 | 21.7 | 93 |
Wisconsin | 17.3 | 58 | 21.8 | 94 |
Northern Illinois | 13.7 | 35 | 21.8 | 95 |
Penn State | 19.2 | 74 | 22.1 | 96 |
South Alabama | 14.2 | 40 | 22.2 | 97 |
Arizona | 14.3 | 42 | 22.4 | 98 |
Army | 21.8 | 93 | 22.5 | 99 |
Miami | 11.1 | 17 | 22.5 | 100 |
Team | 2016 Volatility | Rk | 2015 Volatility | Rk |
Cincinnati | 10.9 | 15 | 22.6 | 101 |
Missouri | 28.2 | 121 | 22.9 | 102 |
Ohio | 3.6 | 1 | 23.0 | 103 |
Charlotte | 22.8 | 98 | 23.4 | 104 |
California | 5.2 | 2 | 23.5 | 105 |
New Mexico | 12.8 | 26 | 23.5 | 106 |
Florida International | 11.7 | 18 | 23.7 | 107 |
Vanderbilt | 14.7 | 45 | 23.9 | 108 |
Iowa State | 28.6 | 123 | 24.1 | 109 |
Michigan | 18.4 | 68 | 24.6 | 110 |
Purdue | 27.2 | 117 | 24.7 | 111 |
Duke | 20.7 | 86 | 24.7 | 112 |
Boston College | 29.6 | 125 | 24.9 | 113 |
Kansas State | 27.3 | 118 | 24.9 | 114 |
Oregon State | 19.7 | 81 | 24.9 | 115 |
Memphis | 26.7 | 115 | 25.0 | 116 |
Georgia Tech | 24.4 | 107 | 25.3 | 117 |
NC State | 8.4 | 5 | 25.6 | 118 |
Texas A&M | 9.0 | 8 | 25.6 | 119 |
USC | 28.3 | 122 | 25.6 | 120 |
TCU | 14.3 | 44 | 25.6 | 121 |
West Virginia | 7.1 | 3 | 26.6 | 122 |
Florida | 20.2 | 84 | 26.7 | 123 |
Georgia Southern | 21.9 | 94 | 26.8 | 124 |
Northwestern | 14.2 | 37 | 27.6 | 125 |
Boise State | 19.4 | 79 | 29.5 | 126 |
Illinois | 25.0 | 111 | 29.8 | 127 |
Kent State | 17.5 | 60 | 30.6 | 128 |
I’m guessing that it’s a bit too early for these to be reliable, and I haven’t finished setting up a simulation for 2015 yet, but like I said — we’re still in experiment stage. So we’ll press forward.
If we have an average (the S&P+ rating) and a standard deviation, we are in position to simulate. So what happens if we take every game on the Week 6 docket and simulate it 10,000 times? In theory, we can come up with different average and median scoring margins. We can also compare these margins to the Vegas spread and take a peek at how frequently Team A covers against Team B in these simulations.
See where I’m going with this?
Date | Game | Spread | Team | Cover% |
8-Oct-16 | BYU at Michigan State | -6.0 | BYU | 69% |
8-Oct-16 | Fresno State at Nevada | -9.5 | Fresno State | 60% |
8-Oct-16 | Florida International at UTEP | -5.5 | Florida International | 60% |
8-Oct-16 | Ball State at Central Michigan | -12.5 | Ball State | 60% |
8-Oct-16 | LSU at Florida | 3.0 | Florida | 60% |
8-Oct-16 | Indiana at Ohio State | -29.0 | Indiana | 59% |
8-Oct-16 | Notre Dame at NC State | -2.5 | NC State | 58% |
8-Oct-16 | Michigan at Rutgers | 28.0 | Michigan | 58% |
8-Oct-16 | Kent State at Buffalo | 1.0 | Kent State | 58% |
8-Oct-16 | East Carolina at South Florida | -20.0 | East Carolina | 58% |
7-Oct-16 | SMU at Tulsa | -17.0 | SMU | 58% |
8-Oct-16 | Texas Tech at Kansas State | -7.5 | Texas Tech | 57% |
8-Oct-16 | Texas vs. Oklahoma | -10.5 | Texas | 57% |
8-Oct-16 | California at Oregon State | 13.5 | Oregon State | 57% |
8-Oct-16 | Northern Illinois at Western Michigan | -19.5 | Northern Illinois | 56% |
8-Oct-16 | Virginia Tech at North Carolina | -2.5 | Virginia Tech | 56% |
8-Oct-16 | Massachusetts at Old Dominion | -7.0 | Old Dominion | 56% |
8-Oct-16 | Maryland at Penn State | 1.0 | Penn State | 56% |
8-Oct-16 | Utah State at Colorado State | 6.0 | Colorado State | 56% |
8-Oct-16 | TCU at Kansas | 29.0 | Kansas | 55% |
8-Oct-16 | Army at Duke | -4.0 | Duke | 55% |
8-Oct-16 | Iowa at Minnesota | 1.5 | Minnesota | 55% |
8-Oct-16 | Miami-OH at Akron | -7.5 | Akron | 55% |
8-Oct-16 | Tennessee at Texas A&M | -6.5 | Tennessee | 55% |
8-Oct-16 | UNLV at San Diego State | -14.5 | UNLV | 55% |
8-Oct-16 | UCLA at Arizona State | 9.5 | Arizona State | 54% |
8-Oct-16 | Georgia at South Carolina | 7.0 | South Carolina | 54% |
8-Oct-16 | Idaho at UL-Monroe | -5.0 | Idaho | 54% |
8-Oct-16 | Toledo at Eastern Michigan | 17.0 | Eastern Michigan | 54% |
8-Oct-16 | Iowa State at Oklahoma State | -17.0 | Iowa State | 54% |
8-Oct-16 | Syracuse at Wake Forest | -2.5 | Wake Forest | 54% |
8-Oct-16 | Bowling Green at Ohio | -12.5 | Bowling Green | 54% |
8-Oct-16 | Hawaii at San Jose State | -3.0 | Hawaii | 53% |
8-Oct-16 | Charlotte at Florida Atlantic | -13.5 | Charlotte | 53% |
8-Oct-16 | Texas State at Georgia State | -10.0 | Texas State | 53% |
8-Oct-16 | Marshall at North Texas | 10.0 | North Texas | 53% |
8-Oct-16 | Auburn at Mississippi State | 3.0 | Mississippi State | 53% |
8-Oct-16 | Washington at Oregon | 8.5 | Oregon | 52% |
8-Oct-16 | Purdue at Illinois | -10.0 | Illinois | 52% |
8-Oct-16 | Cincinnati at Connecticut | 2.5 | Connecticut | 52% |
8-Oct-16 | Alabama at Arkansas | 13.5 | Alabama | 52% |
8-Oct-16 | Air Force at Wyoming | 10.5 | Air Force | 52% |
8-Oct-16 | Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh | -6.5 | Pittsburgh | 51% |
8-Oct-16 | Washington State at Stanford | -7.0 | Stanford | 51% |
8-Oct-16 | Southern Miss at UTSA | 16.5 | Southern Miss | 51% |
7-Oct-16 | Clemson at Boston College | 16.5 | Clemson | 51% |
7-Oct-16 | Boise State at New Mexico | 17.5 | New Mexico | 51% |
8-Oct-16 | Florida State at Miami-FL | -3.0 | Miami-FL | 51% |
8-Oct-16 | Arizona at Utah | -9.5 | Arizona | 51% |
8-Oct-16 | Colorado at USC | -5.0 | USC | 51% |
8-Oct-16 | Houston at Navy | 17.0 | Houston | 50% |
8-Oct-16 | Vanderbilt at Kentucky | -3.0 | Vanderbilt | 50% |
We’re miles from any sort of “Take THESE Picks to the Bank!!” proclamations, but I’m going to be paying particular attention to the five games at the top (not including Florida-LSU, obviously):
- BYU at Michigan State
- Fresno State at Nevada
- Florida International at UTEP
- Ball State at Central Michigan
- Indiana at Ohio State
This is obviously based on the spread listed. Depending on the volatility of the two teams involved, a 0.5-point change in the spread could result in a change of anything between 0.4% (if both teams are crazy-volatile) and about 1.6% (if they’re not).
One week won’t tell us much, but I’ll keep trying to pursue this and see what I find. Coming up with an approximate “odds of covering” figure would be lovely, especially if Vegas and luck continue to be the jerk that they’ve both been so far this year. And if this does go somewhere, it will be fun to figure out the contributing factors to year-to-year volatility.
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