clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Tennessee at Texas A&M: Advanced stats tale of the tape

New, 3 comments
Todd Bennett/Getty Images

Tennessee Volunteers (5-0) vs. Texas A&M Aggies (5-0)

October 08, 2016 (3:30 PM ET, CBS)
Spread: Texas A&M -7
S&P+ Projection: Texas A&M (33.2-28.2)

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category Tennessee Texas A&M
S&P+ (Rk) 19 11
Category Tennessee offense Texas A&M defense Texas A&M offense Tennessee defense
Yards per play (Rk) 5.37 (79) 4.83 (32) 6.44 (21) 4.73 (26)
Yards per game (Rk) 385.4 (86) 404.6 (70) 524.2 (13) 356.8 (39)
Points per possession (Rk) 2.36 (61) 1.05 (9) 2.72 (44) 1.67 (43)
Category Tennessee offense Texas A&M defense Texas A&M offense Tennessee defense
S&P+ (Rk) 33.5 (41) 22.4 (20) 37.2 (22) 21.2 (17)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 117.0 (26) 96.8 (81) 118.5 (23) 101.8 (62)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 142.4 (3) 109.2 (46) 123.1 (22) 114.0 (32)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 119.6 (16) 96.9 (82) 122.7 (9) 98.0 (77)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 129.8 (25) 122.1 (27) 124.5 (31) 137.0 (13)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 108.8 (65) 104.4 (54) 119.5 (37) 105.4 (50)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 143.4 (7) 97.2 (80) 153.3 (3) 100.5 (70)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 91.1 (102) 182.5 (2) 117.6 (35) 127.1 (19)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 169.1 (1) 89.4 (98) 111.0 (39) 94.3 (85)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

Tennessee

  1. Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 18 offense vs. No. 90 defense)
  2. Q4 S&P+ (No. 4 vs. No. 70 )
  3. Standard Downs S&P+ (No. 16 offense vs. No. 82 defense)
  4. Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 3 offense vs. No. 61 defense)
  5. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 28 defense vs. No. 84 offense)

Texas A&M

  1. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 8 offense vs. No. 106 defense)
  2. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 39 defense vs. No. 110 offense)
  3. Standard Downs S&P+ (No. 9 offense vs. No. 77 defense)
  4. First Down S&P+ (No. 9 offense vs. No. 75 defense)
  5. Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 6 offense vs. No. 68 defense)
Five Factors
Category Tennessee offense Texas A&M defense Texas A&M offense Tennessee defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.21 (93) 1.22 (55) 1.40 (28) 1.07 (6)
EFFICIENCY 43.1% (61) 36.3% (27) 45.0% (44) 41.4% (70)
FIELD POSITION 37.2 (2) 26.9 (28) 31.2 (42) 26.0 (19)
FINISHING DRIVES 4.7 (70) 2.9 (1) 4.9 (62) 4.4 (50)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
Tennessee -2.55 (105)
Texas A&M 1.17 (52)
ACTUAL
Tennessee 1 (46)
Texas A&M 2 (36)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Tennessee offense Texas A&M offense
Adj. Pace -1.8 (77) 5.2 (32)
Plays per game 71.8 (85) 81.4 (27)
Possessions per game 14.0 (27) 14.4 (17)
Std. Downs Run Rate 66.3% (31) 52.8% (102)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 40.6% (26) 37.0% (45)
% of solo tackles 66.2% (109) 75.4% (59)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Tennessee defense Texas A&M defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 59.9% (57) 55.6% (90)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 42.3% (19) 31.9% (79)
Overall Havoc Rate 15.9% (74) 21.5% (9)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 10.3% (50) 12.8% (22)
DB Havoc Rate 5.5% (93) 8.7% (17)
PD to INC 31.8% (68) 34.5% (52)

When Tennessee has the ball…

Standard Downs
Tennessee Offense Texas A&M Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 119.6 16 96.9 82 Tennessee big
Standard Downs Success Rate 48.8 52 41.6 29 Texas A&M
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.08 84 1.00 52 Texas A&M
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.04 64 2.50 27 Texas A&M
SD Sack Rate 8.6% 110 6.3% 39 Texas A&M big
Passing Downs
Tennessee Offense Texas A&M Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 129.8 25 122.1 27
Passing Downs Success Rate 30.2 74 26.9 43 Texas A&M
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.68 77 1.36 51 Texas A&M
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.13 82 2.33 17 Texas A&M big
PD Sack Rate 4.8% 35 8.6% 54 Tennessee

When Texas A&M has the ball…

Standard Downs
Texas A&M Offense Tennessee Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 122.7 9 98.0 77 Texas A&M big
Standard Downs Success Rate 48.8 51 49.3 98 Texas A&M
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.18 51 1.07 25 Tennessee
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.19 39 3.14 100 Texas A&M big
SD Sack Rate 0.8% 8 2.2% 106 Texas A&M big
Passing Downs
Texas A&M Offense Tennessee Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 124.5 31 137.0 13 Tennessee
Passing Downs Success Rate 34.8 38 25.2 28 Tennessee
Passing Downs IsoPPP 2.25 8 1.64 5
PD Line Yards per Carry 4.27 8 2.31 15
PD Sack Rate 3.4% 17 9.4% 47 Texas A&M
Individual Passing Stats
Team Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Tennessee Joshua Dobbs 6'3, 210 SR 77 133 1035 13 6 57.9% 10 7.0% 6.7
Texas A&M Trevor Knight 6'1, 215 SR 98 181 1261 7 3 54.1% 3 1.6% 6.8
Texas A&M Jake Hubenak 6'3, 215 JR 5 11 50 0 0 45.5% 2 15.4% 2.2
Individual Rushing Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Tennessee Jalen Hurd RB 6'4, 240 JR 103 409 2 4.0 2.9 37.9%
Tennessee Joshua Dobbs QB 6'3, 210 SR 56 351 5 6.3 5.6 48.2%
Tennessee Alvin Kamara RB 5'10, 215 JR 38 165 0 4.3 3.8 36.8%
Tennessee Carlin Fils-Aime RB 5'11, 175 FR 4 19 0 4.8 0.8 75.0%
Texas A&M Trayveon Williams RB 5'9, 200 FR 54 487 4 9.0 10.7 46.3%
Texas A&M Trevor Knight QB 6'1, 215 SR 48 403 6 8.4 10.1 47.9%
Texas A&M Keith Ford RB 5'11, 215 JR 43 213 3 5.0 5.0 37.2%
Texas A&M James White RB 6'0, 217 JR 16 70 1 4.4 2.5 43.8%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Individual Receiving Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate
Tennessee Josh Malone WR 6'3, 200 JR 26 15 310 5 20.7 11.9 57.7%
Tennessee Alvin Kamara RB 5'10, 215 JR 19 12 92 2 7.7 4.8 63.2%
Tennessee Jauan Jennings WR 6'3, 205 SO 15 12 213 3 17.8 14.2 80.0%
Tennessee Josh Smith WR 6'1, 213 JR 15 4 38 0 9.5 2.5 26.7%
Tennessee Preston Williams WR 6'4, 209 SO 12 9 89 0 9.9 7.4 75.0%
Tennessee Jalen Hurd RB 6'4, 240 JR 11 7 82 2 11.7 7.5 63.6%
Tennessee Ethan Wolf TE 6'6, 245 JR 10 6 67 1 11.2 6.7 60.0%
Texas A&M Christian Kirk WR 5'11, 200 SO 50 33 272 3 8.2 5.4 66.0%
Texas A&M Josh Reynolds WR 6'4, 193 SR 31 20 399 3 20.0 12.9 64.5%
Texas A&M Ricky Seals-Jones WR 6'5, 240 JR 28 10 175 0 17.5 6.3 35.7%
Texas A&M Trayveon Williams RB 5'9, 200 FR 16 12 71 0 5.9 4.4 75.0%
Texas A&M Speedy Noil WR 5'11, 200 JR 15 6 84 1 14.0 5.6 40.0%
Texas A&M Jeremy Tabuyo WR 5'11, 195 SR 14 8 149 0 18.6 10.6 57.1%
Texas A&M Frank Iheanacho WR 6'6, 230 SO 7 5 24 0 4.8 3.4 71.4%
Individual Defensive Stats
Team Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Tennessee Todd Kelly Jr. DB 5'11, 208 JR 25.5 9.0% 1.0 0.0 1 1 1 0
Tennessee Micah Abernathy DB 6'0, 195 SO 23.5 8.3% 1.0 0.0 0 2 0 0
Tennessee Colton Jumper LB 6'2, 224 JR 23.0 8.1% 1.5 0.0 0 1 1 0
Tennessee Emmanuel Moseley DB 5'11, 180 JR 23.0 8.1% 0.5 0.0 0 3 0 0
Tennessee Rashaan Gaulden DB 6'1, 185 SO 21.5 7.6% 0.5 0.0 0 2 0 0
Tennessee Cortez McDowell LB 6'0, 235 JR 21.0 7.4% 2.0 0.0 0 1 0 0
Tennessee Derek Barnett DE 6'3, 265 JR 18.5 6.5% 8.5 4.0 0 1 1 0
Tennessee Jalen Reeves-Maybin LB 6'0, 230 SR 16.0 5.6% 2.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Tennessee Darrin Kirkland Jr. LB 6'1, 230 SO 13.5 4.8% 1.0 1.0 0 0 0 0
Tennessee Kendal Vickers DL 6'3, 295 JR 11.0 3.9% 4.0 1.0 0 0 1 0
Tennessee Corey Vereen DL 6'2, 249 SR 10.0 3.5% 3.5 2.0 0 3 0 0
Tennessee Danny O'Brien DL 6'2, 301 SR 9.0 3.2% 3.0 0.0 0 1 0 0
Tennessee Malik Foreman DB 5'10, 190 SR 7.5 2.6% 0.5 0.0 1 0 0 0
Texas A&M Justin Evans DB 6'1, 200 SR 31.5 10.7% 2.0 0.0 2 4 0 0
Texas A&M Shaan Washington LB 6'3, 240 SR 28.0 9.5% 4.5 2.0 0 5 2 0
Texas A&M Nick Harvey DB 5'10, 185 JR 27.0 9.2% 1.5 0.0 0 4 0 0
Texas A&M Armani Watts DB 5'11, 200 JR 22.5 7.7% 4.5 1.0 1 2 1 0
Texas A&M Donovan Wilson DB 6'1, 206 JR 20.5 7.0% 3.0 0.0 0 2 0 0
Texas A&M Otaro Alaka LB 6'3, 240 SO 18.0 6.1% 3.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Texas A&M Daeshon Hall DL 6'6, 270 SR 17.5 6.0% 8.5 3.0 0 0 1 0
Texas A&M Priest Willis DB 6'2, 200 JR 17.5 6.0% 0.5 0.0 1 4 0 0
Texas A&M Claude George LB 6'2, 240 SR 17.0 5.8% 5.0 2.0 0 1 0 0
Texas A&M Tyrel Dodson LB 6'2, 245 FR 9.0 3.1% 1.5 0.0 0 0 0 0
Texas A&M Myles Garrett DL 6'5, 270 JR 8.5 2.9% 5.0 3.0 0 0 0 0
Texas A&M Alex Sezer Jr. DB 5'9, 180 SR 7.5 2.6% 0.0 0.0 0 1 0 0
Texas A&M Richard Moore LB 6'1, 218 SO 7.0 2.4% 2.0 1.0 0 1 0 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Tennessee Trevor Daniel 6'1, 248 JR 29 42.0 2 15 14 100.0%
Texas A&M Shane Tripucka 6'3, 210 JR 23 44.3 0 6 6 52.2%
Team Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Tennessee Aaron Medley 6'2, 194 JR 29 63.9 16 55.2% 0 1 0 0
Texas A&M Braden Mann 5'11, 205 FR 34 64.7 27 79.4% 0 0 0 0
Texas A&M Daniel LaCamera 6'4, 223 SO 4 68.0 2 50.0% 0 1 0 0
Team Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Tennessee Aaron Medley 6'2, 194 JR 21-21 4-6 66.7%
Texas A&M Daniel LaCamera 6'4, 223 SO 23-23 11-14 78.6%
Team Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Tennessee Evan Berry 5'11, 207 JR 6 29.7 0 0 0 (0)
Tennessee Micah Abernathy 6'0, 195 SO 5 21.6 0 0 1 (0)
Texas A&M Justin Evans 6'1, 200 SR 6 23.7 0 0 0 (0)
Texas A&M Speedy Noil 5'11, 200 JR 4 22.5 0 0 0 (0)
Team Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Tennessee Alvin Kamara 5'10, 215 JR 13 8.9 0 1 2 (0)
Tennessee Cameron Sutton 5'11, 186 SR 4 3.5 0 4 1 (1)
Texas A&M Christian Kirk 5'11, 200 SO 5 5.2 0 17 1 (1)
Texas A&M Nick Harvey 5'10, 185 JR 1 73.0 1 3 0 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics