Tennessee at Texas A&M: Advanced stats tale of the tape

Tennessee Volunteers (5-0) vs. Texas A&M Aggies (5-0)

October 08, 2016 (3:30 PM ET, CBS)

Spread: Texas A&M -7

S&P+ Projection: Texas A&M (33.2-28.2)

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Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.}

The Basics

Category	Tennessee		Texas A&M
S&P+ (Rk)	19		11
Category	Tennessee offense	Texas A&M defense	Texas A&M offense	Tennessee defense
Yards per play (Rk)	5.37 (79)	4.83 (32)	6.44 (21)	4.73 (26)
Yards per game (Rk)	385.4 (86)	404.6 (70)	524.2 (13)	356.8 (39)
Points per possession (Rk)	2.36 (61)	1.05 (9)	2.72 (44)	1.67 (43)
Category	Tennessee offense	Texas A&M defense	Texas A&M offense	Tennessee defense
S&P+ (Rk)	33.5 (41)	22.4 (20)	37.2 (22)	21.2 (17)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk)	117.0 (26)	96.8 (81)	118.5 (23)	101.8 (62)
Passing S&P+ (Rk)	142.4 (3)	109.2 (46)	123.1 (22)	114.0 (32)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk)	119.6 (16)	96.9 (82)	122.7 (9)	98.0 (77)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk)	129.8 (25)	122.1 (27)	124.5 (31)	137.0 (13)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk)	108.8 (65)	104.4 (54)	119.5 (37)	105.4 (50)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk)	143.4 (7)	97.2 (80)	153.3 (3)	100.5 (70)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk)	91.1 (102)	182.5 (2)	117.6 (35)	127.1 (19)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk)	169.1 (1)	89.4 (98)	111.0 (39)	94.3 (85)

Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

_{* or smallest disadvantages}

Tennessee

1. Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 18 offense vs. No. 90 defense)
2. Q4 S&P+ (No. 4 vs. No. 70 )
3. Standard Downs S&P+ (No. 16 offense vs. No. 82 defense)
4. Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 3 offense vs. No. 61 defense)
5. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 28 defense vs. No. 84 offense)

Texas A&M

1. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 8 offense vs. No. 106 defense)
2. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 39 defense vs. No. 110 offense)
3. Standard Downs S&P+ (No. 9 offense vs. No. 77 defense)
4. First Down S&P+ (No. 9 offense vs. No. 75 defense)
5. Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 6 offense vs. No. 68 defense)

Five Factors

Category	Tennessee offense	Texas A&M defense	Texas A&M offense	Tennessee defense
EXPLOSIVENESS	1.21 (93)	1.22 (55)	1.40 (28)	1.07 (6)
EFFICIENCY	43.1% (61)	36.3% (27)	45.0% (44)	41.4% (70)
FIELD POSITION	37.2 (2)	26.9 (28)	31.2 (42)	26.0 (19)
FINISHING DRIVES	4.7 (70)	2.9 (1)	4.9 (62)	4.4 (50)
TURNOVER MARGIN	EXPECTED: Tennessee -2.55 (105) Texas A&M 1.17 (52)		ACTUAL Tennessee 1 (46) Texas A&M 2 (36)

Offensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Tennessee offense	Texas A&M offense
Adj. Pace	-1.8 (77)	5.2 (32)
Plays per game	71.8 (85)	81.4 (27)
Possessions per game	14.0 (27)	14.4 (17)
Std. Downs Run Rate	66.3% (31)	52.8% (102)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	40.6% (26)	37.0% (45)
% of solo tackles	66.2% (109)	75.4% (59)

Defensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Tennessee defense	Texas A&M defense
Std. Downs Run Rate	59.9% (57)	55.6% (90)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	42.3% (19)	31.9% (79)
Overall Havoc Rate	15.9% (74)	21.5% (9)
Front 7 Havoc Rate	10.3% (50)	12.8% (22)
DB Havoc Rate	5.5% (93)	8.7% (17)
PD to INC	31.8% (68)	34.5% (52)

When Tennessee has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Tennessee Offense		Texas A&M Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	119.6	16	96.9	82	Tennessee big
Standard Downs Success Rate	48.8	52	41.6	29	Texas A&M
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.08	84	1.00	52	Texas A&M
SD Line Yards per Carry	3.04	64	2.50	27	Texas A&M
SD Sack Rate	8.6%	110	6.3%	39	Texas A&M big

Passing Downs

	Tennessee Offense		Texas A&M Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	129.8	25	122.1	27
Passing Downs Success Rate	30.2	74	26.9	43	Texas A&M
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.68	77	1.36	51	Texas A&M
PD Line Yards per Carry	3.13	82	2.33	17	Texas A&M big
PD Sack Rate	4.8%	35	8.6%	54	Tennessee

When Texas A&M has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Texas A&M Offense		Tennessee Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	122.7	9	98.0	77	Texas A&M big
Standard Downs Success Rate	48.8	51	49.3	98	Texas A&M
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.18	51	1.07	25	Tennessee
SD Line Yards per Carry	3.19	39	3.14	100	Texas A&M big
SD Sack Rate	0.8%	8	2.2%	106	Texas A&M big

Passing Downs

	Texas A&M Offense		Tennessee Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	124.5	31	137.0	13	Tennessee
Passing Downs Success Rate	34.8	38	25.2	28	Tennessee
Passing Downs IsoPPP	2.25	8	1.64	5
PD Line Yards per Carry	4.27	8	2.31	15
PD Sack Rate	3.4%	17	9.4%	47	Texas A&M

Individual Passing Stats

Team	Player	Ht, Wt	Year	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Tennessee	Joshua Dobbs	6'3, 210	SR	77	133	1035	13	6	57.9%	10	7.0%	6.7
Texas A&M	Trevor Knight	6'1, 215	SR	98	181	1261	7	3	54.1%	3	1.6%	6.8
Texas A&M	Jake Hubenak	6'3, 215	JR	5	11	50	0	0	45.5%	2	15.4%	2.2

Individual Rushing Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate
Tennessee	Jalen Hurd	RB	6'4, 240	JR	103	409	2	4.0	2.9	37.9%
Tennessee	Joshua Dobbs	QB	6'3, 210	SR	56	351	5	6.3	5.6	48.2%
Tennessee	Alvin Kamara	RB	5'10, 215	JR	38	165	0	4.3	3.8	36.8%
Tennessee	Carlin Fils-Aime	RB	5'11, 175	FR	4	19	0	4.8	0.8	75.0%
Texas A&M	Trayveon Williams	RB	5'9, 200	FR	54	487	4	9.0	10.7	46.3%
Texas A&M	Trevor Knight	QB	6'1, 215	SR	48	403	6	8.4	10.1	47.9%
Texas A&M	Keith Ford	RB	5'11, 215	JR	43	213	3	5.0	5.0	37.2%
Texas A&M	James White	RB	6'0, 217	JR	16	70	1	4.4	2.5	43.8%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.

Individual Receiving Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Targets	Catches	Yards	TD	Yds/ Catch	Yds/ Target	Catch Rate
Tennessee	Josh Malone	WR	6'3, 200	JR	26	15	310	5	20.7	11.9	57.7%
Tennessee	Alvin Kamara	RB	5'10, 215	JR	19	12	92	2	7.7	4.8	63.2%
Tennessee	Jauan Jennings	WR	6'3, 205	SO	15	12	213	3	17.8	14.2	80.0%
Tennessee	Josh Smith	WR	6'1, 213	JR	15	4	38	0	9.5	2.5	26.7%
Tennessee	Preston Williams	WR	6'4, 209	SO	12	9	89	0	9.9	7.4	75.0%
Tennessee	Jalen Hurd	RB	6'4, 240	JR	11	7	82	2	11.7	7.5	63.6%
Tennessee	Ethan Wolf	TE	6'6, 245	JR	10	6	67	1	11.2	6.7	60.0%
Texas A&M	Christian Kirk	WR	5'11, 200	SO	50	33	272	3	8.2	5.4	66.0%
Texas A&M	Josh Reynolds	WR	6'4, 193	SR	31	20	399	3	20.0	12.9	64.5%
Texas A&M	Ricky Seals-Jones	WR	6'5, 240	JR	28	10	175	0	17.5	6.3	35.7%
Texas A&M	Trayveon Williams	RB	5'9, 200	FR	16	12	71	0	5.9	4.4	75.0%
Texas A&M	Speedy Noil	WR	5'11, 200	JR	15	6	84	1	14.0	5.6	40.0%
Texas A&M	Jeremy Tabuyo	WR	5'11, 195	SR	14	8	149	0	18.6	10.6	57.1%
Texas A&M	Frank Iheanacho	WR	6'6, 230	SO	7	5	24	0	4.8	3.4	71.4%

Individual Defensive Stats

Team	Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	Year	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Tennessee	Todd Kelly Jr.	DB	5'11, 208	JR	25.5	9.0%	1.0	0.0	1	1	1	0
Tennessee	Micah Abernathy	DB	6'0, 195	SO	23.5	8.3%	1.0	0.0	0	2	0	0
Tennessee	Colton Jumper	LB	6'2, 224	JR	23.0	8.1%	1.5	0.0	0	1	1	0
Tennessee	Emmanuel Moseley	DB	5'11, 180	JR	23.0	8.1%	0.5	0.0	0	3	0	0
Tennessee	Rashaan Gaulden	DB	6'1, 185	SO	21.5	7.6%	0.5	0.0	0	2	0	0
Tennessee	Cortez McDowell	LB	6'0, 235	JR	21.0	7.4%	2.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Tennessee	Derek Barnett	DE	6'3, 265	JR	18.5	6.5%	8.5	4.0	0	1	1	0
Tennessee	Jalen Reeves-Maybin	LB	6'0, 230	SR	16.0	5.6%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Tennessee	Darrin Kirkland Jr.	LB	6'1, 230	SO	13.5	4.8%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Tennessee	Kendal Vickers	DL	6'3, 295	JR	11.0	3.9%	4.0	1.0	0	0	1	0
Tennessee	Corey Vereen	DL	6'2, 249	SR	10.0	3.5%	3.5	2.0	0	3	0	0
Tennessee	Danny O'Brien	DL	6'2, 301	SR	9.0	3.2%	3.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Tennessee	Malik Foreman	DB	5'10, 190	SR	7.5	2.6%	0.5	0.0	1	0	0	0
Texas A&M	Justin Evans	DB	6'1, 200	SR	31.5	10.7%	2.0	0.0	2	4	0	0
Texas A&M	Shaan Washington	LB	6'3, 240	SR	28.0	9.5%	4.5	2.0	0	5	2	0
Texas A&M	Nick Harvey	DB	5'10, 185	JR	27.0	9.2%	1.5	0.0	0	4	0	0
Texas A&M	Armani Watts	DB	5'11, 200	JR	22.5	7.7%	4.5	1.0	1	2	1	0
Texas A&M	Donovan Wilson	DB	6'1, 206	JR	20.5	7.0%	3.0	0.0	0	2	0	0
Texas A&M	Otaro Alaka	LB	6'3, 240	SO	18.0	6.1%	3.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Texas A&M	Daeshon Hall	DL	6'6, 270	SR	17.5	6.0%	8.5	3.0	0	0	1	0
Texas A&M	Priest Willis	DB	6'2, 200	JR	17.5	6.0%	0.5	0.0	1	4	0	0
Texas A&M	Claude George	LB	6'2, 240	SR	17.0	5.8%	5.0	2.0	0	1	0	0
Texas A&M	Tyrel Dodson	LB	6'2, 245	FR	9.0	3.1%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Texas A&M	Myles Garrett	DL	6'5, 270	JR	8.5	2.9%	5.0	3.0	0	0	0	0
Texas A&M	Alex Sezer Jr.	DB	5'9, 180	SR	7.5	2.6%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Texas A&M	Richard Moore	LB	6'1, 218	SO	7.0	2.4%	2.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.

Individual Special Teams Stats

Team	Punter	Ht, Wt	Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Tennessee	Trevor Daniel	6'1, 248	JR	29	42.0	2	15	14	100.0%
Texas A&M	Shane Tripucka	6'3, 210	JR	23	44.3	0	6	6	52.2%

Team	Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%	OOB	Fair Catches	Onside Att	Onside Success
Tennessee	Aaron Medley	6'2, 194	JR	29	63.9	16	55.2%	0	1	0	0
Texas A&M	Braden Mann	5'11, 205	FR	34	64.7	27	79.4%	0	0	0	0
Texas A&M	Daniel LaCamera	6'4, 223	SO	4	68.0	2	50.0%	0	1	0	0

Team	Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	PAT	FG	Pct
Tennessee	Aaron Medley	6'2, 194	JR	21-21	4-6	66.7%
Texas A&M	Daniel LaCamera	6'4, 223	SO	23-23	11-14	78.6%

Team	Kick Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Tennessee	Evan Berry	5'11, 207	JR	6	29.7	0	0	0 (0)
Tennessee	Micah Abernathy	6'0, 195	SO	5	21.6	0	0	1 (0)
Texas A&M	Justin Evans	6'1, 200	SR	6	23.7	0	0	0 (0)
Texas A&M	Speedy Noil	5'11, 200	JR	4	22.5	0	0	0 (0)

Team	Punt Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Tennessee	Alvin Kamara	5'10, 215	JR	13	8.9	0	1	2 (0)
Tennessee	Cameron Sutton	5'11, 186	SR	4	3.5	0	4	1 (1)
Texas A&M	Christian Kirk	5'11, 200	SO	5	5.2	0	17	1 (1)
Texas A&M	Nick Harvey	5'10, 185	JR	1	73.0	1	3	0 (0)

_{Stats via SportSource Analytics}