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Tennessee Volunteers (5-0) vs. Texas A&M Aggies (5-0)
October 08, 2016 (3:30 PM ET, CBS)
Spread: Texas A&M -7
S&P+ Projection: Texas A&M (33.2-28.2)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
Category | Tennessee | Texas A&M | ||
S&P+ (Rk) | 19 | 11 | ||
Category | Tennessee offense | Texas A&M defense | Texas A&M offense | Tennessee defense |
Yards per play (Rk) | 5.37 (79) | 4.83 (32) | 6.44 (21) | 4.73 (26) |
Yards per game (Rk) | 385.4 (86) | 404.6 (70) | 524.2 (13) | 356.8 (39) |
Points per possession (Rk) | 2.36 (61) | 1.05 (9) | 2.72 (44) | 1.67 (43) |
Category | Tennessee offense | Texas A&M defense | Texas A&M offense | Tennessee defense |
S&P+ (Rk) | 33.5 (41) | 22.4 (20) | 37.2 (22) | 21.2 (17) |
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 117.0 (26) | 96.8 (81) | 118.5 (23) | 101.8 (62) |
Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 142.4 (3) | 109.2 (46) | 123.1 (22) | 114.0 (32) |
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 119.6 (16) | 96.9 (82) | 122.7 (9) | 98.0 (77) |
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 129.8 (25) | 122.1 (27) | 124.5 (31) | 137.0 (13) |
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 108.8 (65) | 104.4 (54) | 119.5 (37) | 105.4 (50) |
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 143.4 (7) | 97.2 (80) | 153.3 (3) | 100.5 (70) |
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 91.1 (102) | 182.5 (2) | 117.6 (35) | 127.1 (19) |
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 169.1 (1) | 89.4 (98) | 111.0 (39) | 94.3 (85) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Tennessee
- Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 18 offense vs. No. 90 defense)
- Q4 S&P+ (No. 4 vs. No. 70 )
- Standard Downs S&P+ (No. 16 offense vs. No. 82 defense)
- Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 3 offense vs. No. 61 defense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 28 defense vs. No. 84 offense)
Texas A&M
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 8 offense vs. No. 106 defense)
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 39 defense vs. No. 110 offense)
- Standard Downs S&P+ (No. 9 offense vs. No. 77 defense)
- First Down S&P+ (No. 9 offense vs. No. 75 defense)
- Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 6 offense vs. No. 68 defense)
Five Factors
Category | Tennessee offense | Texas A&M defense | Texas A&M offense | Tennessee defense |
EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.21 (93) | 1.22 (55) | 1.40 (28) | 1.07 (6) |
EFFICIENCY | 43.1% (61) | 36.3% (27) | 45.0% (44) | 41.4% (70) |
FIELD POSITION | 37.2 (2) | 26.9 (28) | 31.2 (42) | 26.0 (19) |
FINISHING DRIVES | 4.7 (70) | 2.9 (1) | 4.9 (62) | 4.4 (50) |
TURNOVER MARGIN |
EXPECTED: Tennessee -2.55 (105) Texas A&M 1.17 (52) |
ACTUAL Tennessee 1 (46) Texas A&M 2 (36) |
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) | Tennessee offense | Texas A&M offense |
Adj. Pace | -1.8 (77) | 5.2 (32) |
Plays per game | 71.8 (85) | 81.4 (27) |
Possessions per game | 14.0 (27) | 14.4 (17) |
Std. Downs Run Rate | 66.3% (31) | 52.8% (102) |
Pass. Downs Run Rate | 40.6% (26) | 37.0% (45) |
% of solo tackles | 66.2% (109) | 75.4% (59) |
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) | Tennessee defense | Texas A&M defense |
Std. Downs Run Rate | 59.9% (57) | 55.6% (90) |
Pass. Downs Run Rate | 42.3% (19) | 31.9% (79) |
Overall Havoc Rate | 15.9% (74) | 21.5% (9) |
Front 7 Havoc Rate | 10.3% (50) | 12.8% (22) |
DB Havoc Rate | 5.5% (93) | 8.7% (17) |
PD to INC | 31.8% (68) | 34.5% (52) |
When Tennessee has the ball…
Standard Downs
Tennessee Offense | Texas A&M Defense | ||||
Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
Standard Downs S&P+ | 119.6 | 16 | 96.9 | 82 | Tennessee big |
Standard Downs Success Rate | 48.8 | 52 | 41.6 | 29 | Texas A&M |
Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.08 | 84 | 1.00 | 52 | Texas A&M |
SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.04 | 64 | 2.50 | 27 | Texas A&M |
SD Sack Rate | 8.6% | 110 | 6.3% | 39 | Texas A&M big |
Passing Downs
Tennessee Offense | Texas A&M Defense | ||||
Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
Passing Downs S&P+ | 129.8 | 25 | 122.1 | 27 | |
Passing Downs Success Rate | 30.2 | 74 | 26.9 | 43 | Texas A&M |
Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.68 | 77 | 1.36 | 51 | Texas A&M |
PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.13 | 82 | 2.33 | 17 | Texas A&M big |
PD Sack Rate | 4.8% | 35 | 8.6% | 54 | Tennessee |
When Texas A&M has the ball…
Standard Downs
Texas A&M Offense | Tennessee Defense | ||||
Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
Standard Downs S&P+ | 122.7 | 9 | 98.0 | 77 | Texas A&M big |
Standard Downs Success Rate | 48.8 | 51 | 49.3 | 98 | Texas A&M |
Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.18 | 51 | 1.07 | 25 | Tennessee |
SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.19 | 39 | 3.14 | 100 | Texas A&M big |
SD Sack Rate | 0.8% | 8 | 2.2% | 106 | Texas A&M big |
Passing Downs
Texas A&M Offense | Tennessee Defense | ||||
Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
Passing Downs S&P+ | 124.5 | 31 | 137.0 | 13 | Tennessee |
Passing Downs Success Rate | 34.8 | 38 | 25.2 | 28 | Tennessee |
Passing Downs IsoPPP | 2.25 | 8 | 1.64 | 5 | |
PD Line Yards per Carry | 4.27 | 8 | 2.31 | 15 | |
PD Sack Rate | 3.4% | 17 | 9.4% | 47 | Texas A&M |
Individual Passing Stats
Team | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate |
Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
Tennessee | Joshua Dobbs | 6'3, 210 | SR | 77 | 133 | 1035 | 13 | 6 | 57.9% | 10 | 7.0% | 6.7 |
Texas A&M | Trevor Knight | 6'1, 215 | SR | 98 | 181 | 1261 | 7 | 3 | 54.1% | 3 | 1.6% | 6.8 |
Texas A&M | Jake Hubenak | 6'3, 215 | JR | 5 | 11 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 45.5% | 2 | 15.4% | 2.2 |
Individual Rushing Stats
Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry |
Hlt Yds/ Opp. |
Opp. Rate |
Tennessee | Jalen Hurd | RB | 6'4, 240 | JR | 103 | 409 | 2 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 37.9% |
Tennessee | Joshua Dobbs | QB | 6'3, 210 | SR | 56 | 351 | 5 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 48.2% |
Tennessee | Alvin Kamara | RB | 5'10, 215 | JR | 38 | 165 | 0 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 36.8% |
Tennessee | Carlin Fils-Aime | RB | 5'11, 175 | FR | 4 | 19 | 0 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 75.0% |
Texas A&M | Trayveon Williams | RB | 5'9, 200 | FR | 54 | 487 | 4 | 9.0 | 10.7 | 46.3% |
Texas A&M | Trevor Knight | QB | 6'1, 215 | SR | 48 | 403 | 6 | 8.4 | 10.1 | 47.9% |
Texas A&M | Keith Ford | RB | 5'11, 215 | JR | 43 | 213 | 3 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 37.2% |
Texas A&M | James White | RB | 6'0, 217 | JR | 16 | 70 | 1 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 43.8% |
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. |
Individual Receiving Stats
Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch |
Yds/ Target |
Catch Rate |
Tennessee | Josh Malone | WR | 6'3, 200 | JR | 26 | 15 | 310 | 5 | 20.7 | 11.9 | 57.7% |
Tennessee | Alvin Kamara | RB | 5'10, 215 | JR | 19 | 12 | 92 | 2 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 63.2% |
Tennessee | Jauan Jennings | WR | 6'3, 205 | SO | 15 | 12 | 213 | 3 | 17.8 | 14.2 | 80.0% |
Tennessee | Josh Smith | WR | 6'1, 213 | JR | 15 | 4 | 38 | 0 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 26.7% |
Tennessee | Preston Williams | WR | 6'4, 209 | SO | 12 | 9 | 89 | 0 | 9.9 | 7.4 | 75.0% |
Tennessee | Jalen Hurd | RB | 6'4, 240 | JR | 11 | 7 | 82 | 2 | 11.7 | 7.5 | 63.6% |
Tennessee | Ethan Wolf | TE | 6'6, 245 | JR | 10 | 6 | 67 | 1 | 11.2 | 6.7 | 60.0% |
Texas A&M | Christian Kirk | WR | 5'11, 200 | SO | 50 | 33 | 272 | 3 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 66.0% |
Texas A&M | Josh Reynolds | WR | 6'4, 193 | SR | 31 | 20 | 399 | 3 | 20.0 | 12.9 | 64.5% |
Texas A&M | Ricky Seals-Jones | WR | 6'5, 240 | JR | 28 | 10 | 175 | 0 | 17.5 | 6.3 | 35.7% |
Texas A&M | Trayveon Williams | RB | 5'9, 200 | FR | 16 | 12 | 71 | 0 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 75.0% |
Texas A&M | Speedy Noil | WR | 5'11, 200 | JR | 15 | 6 | 84 | 1 | 14.0 | 5.6 | 40.0% |
Texas A&M | Jeremy Tabuyo | WR | 5'11, 195 | SR | 14 | 8 | 149 | 0 | 18.6 | 10.6 | 57.1% |
Texas A&M | Frank Iheanacho | WR | 6'6, 230 | SO | 7 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 71.4% |
Individual Defensive Stats
Team | Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
Tennessee | Todd Kelly Jr. | DB | 5'11, 208 | JR | 25.5 | 9.0% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Tennessee | Micah Abernathy | DB | 6'0, 195 | SO | 23.5 | 8.3% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Tennessee | Colton Jumper | LB | 6'2, 224 | JR | 23.0 | 8.1% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Tennessee | Emmanuel Moseley | DB | 5'11, 180 | JR | 23.0 | 8.1% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Tennessee | Rashaan Gaulden | DB | 6'1, 185 | SO | 21.5 | 7.6% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Tennessee | Cortez McDowell | LB | 6'0, 235 | JR | 21.0 | 7.4% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Tennessee | Derek Barnett | DE | 6'3, 265 | JR | 18.5 | 6.5% | 8.5 | 4.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Tennessee | Jalen Reeves-Maybin | LB | 6'0, 230 | SR | 16.0 | 5.6% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Tennessee | Darrin Kirkland Jr. | LB | 6'1, 230 | SO | 13.5 | 4.8% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Tennessee | Kendal Vickers | DL | 6'3, 295 | JR | 11.0 | 3.9% | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Tennessee | Corey Vereen | DL | 6'2, 249 | SR | 10.0 | 3.5% | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Tennessee | Danny O'Brien | DL | 6'2, 301 | SR | 9.0 | 3.2% | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Tennessee | Malik Foreman | DB | 5'10, 190 | SR | 7.5 | 2.6% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Texas A&M | Justin Evans | DB | 6'1, 200 | SR | 31.5 | 10.7% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Texas A&M | Shaan Washington | LB | 6'3, 240 | SR | 28.0 | 9.5% | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
Texas A&M | Nick Harvey | DB | 5'10, 185 | JR | 27.0 | 9.2% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Texas A&M | Armani Watts | DB | 5'11, 200 | JR | 22.5 | 7.7% | 4.5 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Texas A&M | Donovan Wilson | DB | 6'1, 206 | JR | 20.5 | 7.0% | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Texas A&M | Otaro Alaka | LB | 6'3, 240 | SO | 18.0 | 6.1% | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Texas A&M | Daeshon Hall | DL | 6'6, 270 | SR | 17.5 | 6.0% | 8.5 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Texas A&M | Priest Willis | DB | 6'2, 200 | JR | 17.5 | 6.0% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Texas A&M | Claude George | LB | 6'2, 240 | SR | 17.0 | 5.8% | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texas A&M | Tyrel Dodson | LB | 6'2, 245 | FR | 9.0 | 3.1% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Texas A&M | Myles Garrett | DL | 6'5, 270 | JR | 8.5 | 2.9% | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Texas A&M | Alex Sezer Jr. | DB | 5'9, 180 | SR | 7.5 | 2.6% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texas A&M | Richard Moore | LB | 6'1, 218 | SO | 7.0 | 2.4% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. |
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
Tennessee | Trevor Daniel | 6'1, 248 | JR | 29 | 42.0 | 2 | 15 | 14 | 100.0% |
Texas A&M | Shane Tripucka | 6'3, 210 | JR | 23 | 44.3 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 52.2% |
Team | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches |
Onside Att |
Onside Success |
Tennessee | Aaron Medley | 6'2, 194 | JR | 29 | 63.9 | 16 | 55.2% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texas A&M | Braden Mann | 5'11, 205 | FR | 34 | 64.7 | 27 | 79.4% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Texas A&M | Daniel LaCamera | 6'4, 223 | SO | 4 | 68.0 | 2 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Team | Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
Tennessee | Aaron Medley | 6'2, 194 | JR | 21-21 | 4-6 | 66.7% |
Texas A&M | Daniel LaCamera | 6'4, 223 | SO | 23-23 | 11-14 | 78.6% |
Team | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
Tennessee | Evan Berry | 5'11, 207 | JR | 6 | 29.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
Tennessee | Micah Abernathy | 6'0, 195 | SO | 5 | 21.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 (0) |
Texas A&M | Justin Evans | 6'1, 200 | SR | 6 | 23.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
Texas A&M | Speedy Noil | 5'11, 200 | JR | 4 | 22.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
Team | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
Tennessee | Alvin Kamara | 5'10, 215 | JR | 13 | 8.9 | 0 | 1 | 2 (0) |
Tennessee | Cameron Sutton | 5'11, 186 | SR | 4 | 3.5 | 0 | 4 | 1 (1) |
Texas A&M | Christian Kirk | 5'11, 200 | SO | 5 | 5.2 | 0 | 17 | 1 (1) |
Texas A&M | Nick Harvey | 5'10, 185 | JR | 1 | 73.0 | 1 | 3 | 0 (0) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics
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