clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Texas A&M at Alabama: Advanced stats tale of the tape

Texas A&M Aggies (6-0) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0)

October 22, 2016 ( 3:30 PM ET, CBS )
Spread: Alabama -19
S&P+ Projection: Alabama (35.2-21.5)

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category Texas A&M Alabama
S&P+ (Rk) 11 2
Category Texas A&M offense Alabama defense Alabama offense Texas A&M defense
Yards per play (Rk) 6.52 (16) 4.23 (8) 6.57 (14) 5.17 (51)
Yards per game (Rk) 538.0 (6) 286.0 (7) 487.0 (22) 448.3 (106)
Points per possession (Rk) 2.59 (45) 1.07 (5) 3.57 (5) 1.22 (12)
Category Texas A&M offense Alabama defense Alabama offense Texas A&M defense
S&P+ (Rk) 38.8 (17) 11.6 (3) 40.5 (10) 22.4 (25)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 113.0 (40) 177.8 (2) 142.0 (3) 88.2 (109)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 123.1 (18) 158.3 (2) 109.7 (45) 107.5 (46)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 115.3 (22) 138.6 (3) 116.4 (19) 96.8 (83)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 127.4 (26) 233.2 (2) 153.0 (4) 105.7 (50)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 112.8 (49) 165.3 (4) 134.6 (13) 90.1 (100)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 132.4 (9) 168.1 (3) 123.6 (23) 104.3 (62)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 115.1 (33) 183.3 (1) 131.8 (17) 135.9 (12)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 114.7 (28) 104.3 (49) 113.0 (31) 91.4 (99)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

Texas A&M

  1. Run Stuffs (No. 5 defense vs. No. 51 offense)
  2. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 48 defense vs. No. 80 offense)
  3. Field Position (No. 39 defense vs. No. 65 offense)
  4. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 103 offense vs. No. 125 defense)
  5. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 2 defense vs. No. 19 offense)

Alabama

  1. Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 3 offense vs. No. 121 defense)
  2. Rushing S&P+ (No. 3 offense vs. No. 109 defense)
  3. Adj. Line Yards (No. 17 offense vs. No. 100 defense)
  4. Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 8 offense vs. No. 91 defense)
  5. Q1 S&P+ (No. 3 vs. No. 72 )
Five Factors
Category Texas A&M offense Alabama defense Alabama offense Texas A&M defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.44 (9) 1.42 (118) 1.29 (62) 1.24 (65)
EFFICIENCY 42.9% (58) 25.6% (2) 49.7% (10) 37.7% (36)
FIELD POSITION 31.8 (33) 26.9 (24) 29.8 (65) 27.7 (39)
FINISHING DRIVES 5.0 (51) 3.4 (15) 6.4 (1) 3.1 (7)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
Texas A&M 5.04 (8)
Alabama 4.91 (11)
ACTUAL
Texas A&M 6 (12)
Alabama 4 (28)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Texas A&M offense Alabama offense
Adj. Pace 6.0 (20) 0.7 (58)
Plays per game 82.5 (14) 74.1 (69)
Possessions per game 15.5 (2) 12.7 (83)
Std. Downs Run Rate 55.9% (86) 59.6% (69)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 36.4% (47) 41.4% (27)
% of solo tackles 74.7% (59) 78.1% (35)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Texas A&M defense Alabama defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 55.5% (93) 54.7% (99)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 31.5% (87) 23.9% (122)
Overall Havoc Rate 22.2% (4) 22.4% (3)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 12.6% (15) 13.9% (7)
DB Havoc Rate 9.6% (5) 8.5% (14)
PD to INC 39.6% (21) 34.9% (50)

When Texas A&M has the ball…

Standard Downs
Texas A&M Offense Alabama Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 115.3 22 138.6 3 Alabama
Standard Downs Success Rate 46.1 78 32.0 2 Alabama big
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.22 26 1.11 127 Texas A&M big
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.12 41 2.29 13 Alabama
SD Sack Rate 1.5% 11 9% 15
Passing Downs
Texas A&M Offense Alabama Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 127.4 26 233.2 2 Alabama
Passing Downs Success Rate 34.8 34 16.2 3 Alabama
Passing Downs IsoPPP 2.18 7 1.61 1
PD Line Yards per Carry 4.51 3 1.79 3
PD Sack Rate 2.7% 9 11.2% 20 Texas A&M

When Alabama has the ball…

Standard Downs
Alabama Offense Texas A&M Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 116.4 19 96.8 83 Alabama big
Standard Downs Success Rate 54.8 7 42.1 26 Alabama
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.06 91 1.46 71 Texas A&M
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.41 13 2.65 36 Alabama
SD Sack Rate 5.4% 80 5.6% 48 Texas A&M
Passing Downs
Alabama Offense Texas A&M Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 153.0 4 105.7 50 Alabama
Passing Downs Success Rate 37.9 17 29.5 59 Alabama
Passing Downs IsoPPP 2.09 15 1.30 35 Alabama
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.71 41 2.95 51
PD Sack Rate 5.9% 44 9.8% 42
Individual Passing Stats
Team Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Texas A&M Trevor Knight 6'1, 215 SR 115 215 1500 9 5 53.5% 4 1.8% 6.8
Texas A&M Jake Hubenak 6'3, 215 JR 5 11 50 0 0 45.5% 2 15.4% 2.2
Texas A&M Conner McQueen 5'10, 175 SR 1 1 1 0 0 100.0% 0 0.0% 1.0
Alabama Jalen Hurts 6'2, 209 FR 113 178 1385 9 3 63.5% 7 3.8% 7.2
Alabama Blake Barnett 6'5, 211 FR 11 19 219 2 0 57.9% 4 17.4% 8.7
Alabama Cooper Bateman 6'3, 220 JR 9 10 69 0 0 90.0% 1 9.1% 5.5
Individual Rushing Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Texas A&M Trayveon Williams RB 5'9, 200 FR 82 704 5 8.6 10.3 45.1%
Texas A&M Trevor Knight QB 6'1, 215 SR 62 522 9 8.4 10.4 46.8%
Texas A&M Keith Ford RB 5'11, 215 JR 49 242 3 4.9 5.5 34.7%
Texas A&M James White RB 6'0, 217 JR 16 70 1 4.4 2.5 43.8%
Alabama Damien Harris RB 5'11, 214 SO 70 572 1 8.2 10.0 45.7%
Alabama Jalen Hurts QB 6'2, 209 FR 67 484 8 7.2 6.2 53.7%
Alabama Joshua Jacobs RB 5'10, 204 FR 43 345 3 8.0 7.4 53.5%
Alabama Bo Scarbrough RB 6'2, 228 SO 43 273 5 6.3 8.6 34.9%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Individual Receiving Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate
Texas A&M Christian Kirk WR 5'11, 200 SO 60 40 352 4 8.8 5.9 66.7%
Texas A&M Josh Reynolds WR 6'4, 193 SR 40 25 488 4 19.5 12.2 62.5%
Texas A&M Ricky Seals-Jones WR 6'5, 240 JR 28 10 175 0 17.5 6.3 35.7%
Texas A&M Speedy Noil WR 5'11, 200 JR 20 8 116 1 14.5 5.8 40.0%
Texas A&M Trayveon Williams RB 5'9, 200 FR 19 13 71 0 5.5 3.7 68.4%
Texas A&M Jeremy Tabuyo WR 5'11, 195 SR 17 8 149 0 18.6 8.8 47.1%
Texas A&M Frank Iheanacho WR 6'6, 230 SO 8 6 48 0 8.0 6.0 75.0%
Alabama Calvin Ridley WR 6'1, 188 SO 64 39 477 4 12.2 7.5 60.9%
Alabama ArDarius Stewart WR 6'1, 204 JR 35 26 379 3 14.6 10.8 74.3%
Alabama O.J. Howard TE 6'6, 251 SR 19 14 209 1 14.9 11.0 73.7%
Alabama Gehrig Dieter WR 6'3, 207 SR 19 8 175 1 21.9 9.2 42.1%
Alabama Trevon Diggs WR 6'2, 195 FR 11 7 64 0 9.1 5.8 63.6%
Alabama Cam Sims WR 6'5, 203 JR 9 6 65 0 10.8 7.2 66.7%
Alabama Josh Jacobs RB 5'10, 204 FR 8 6 75 0 12.5 9.4 75.0%
Individual Defensive Stats
Team Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Texas A&M Justin Evans DB 6'1, 200 SR 40.5 10.9% 3.0 0.0 3 6 0 0
Texas A&M Shaan Washington LB 6'3, 240 SR 33.0 8.8% 4.5 2.0 0 5 2 0
Texas A&M Nick Harvey DB 5'10, 185 JR 32.0 8.6% 1.5 0.0 0 6 0 0
Texas A&M Armani Watts DB 5'11, 200 JR 30.0 8.0% 4.5 1.0 2 3 2 0
Texas A&M Donovan Wilson DB 6'1, 206 JR 25.5 6.8% 4.0 1.0 0 2 0 0
Texas A&M Otaro Alaka LB 6'3, 240 SO 22.0 5.9% 3.0 0.0 0 1 0 0
Texas A&M Claude George LB 6'2, 240 SR 21.5 5.8% 6.0 2.0 0 1 0 0
Texas A&M Priest Willis DB 6'2, 200 JR 20.0 5.4% 0.5 0.0 1 7 0 0
Texas A&M Daeshon Hall DL 6'6, 270 SR 18.5 5.0% 9.0 3.5 0 1 1 0
Texas A&M Tyrel Dodson LB 6'2, 245 FR 11.5 3.1% 1.5 0.0 0 0 0 0
Texas A&M Myles Garrett DL 6'5, 270 JR 11.0 2.9% 6.0 4.0 0 0 1 0
Texas A&M Alex Sezer Jr. DB 5'9, 180 SR 11.0 2.9% 0.0 0.0 0 1 0 0
Texas A&M Zaycoven Henderson DL 6'2, 300 JR 10.0 2.7% 2.5 0.5 0 0 0 0
Alabama Shaun Dion Hamilton LB 6'0, 232 JR 31.5 8.9% 7.5 2.0 0 0 1 0
Alabama Reuben Foster LB 6'1, 236 SR 31.0 8.8% 4.0 1.5 0 2 0 0
Alabama Ronnie Harrison DB 6'3, 216 SO 27.5 7.8% 0.0 0.0 2 3 0 1
Alabama Minkah Fitzpatrick DB 6'1, 203 SO 26.5 7.5% 2.0 1.5 3 5 1 0
Alabama Jonathan Allen DL 6'3, 291 SR 22.0 6.2% 5.5 5.0 0 2 0 1
Alabama Rashaan Evans LB 6'3, 231 JR 19.5 5.5% 1.5 1.5 0 0 1 0
Alabama Ryan Anderson LB 6'2, 253 SR 18.5 5.2% 8.5 4.5 0 1 2 0
Alabama Anthony Averett DB 6'0, 183 JR 18.5 5.2% 1.0 0.0 0 4 1 0
Alabama Eddie Jackson DB 6'0, 194 SR 16.5 4.7% 2.5 0.0 1 2 0 0
Alabama Dalvin Tomlinson DL 6'3, 305 SR 15.0 4.2% 1.0 1.0 0 2 0 0
Alabama Marlon Humphrey DB 6'1, 196 SO 14.5 4.1% 1.0 0.0 1 3 1 0
Alabama Keith Holcombe LB 6'4, 227 SO 13.5 3.8% 1.0 0.0 0 1 0 0
Alabama Tim Williams LB 6'4, 252 SR 12.0 3.4% 7.5 4.5 0 1 2 1
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Texas A&M Shane Tripucka 6'3, 210 JR 33 43.6 0 6 9 45.5%
Alabama JK Scott 6'6, 202 JR 26 47.0 4 9 10 73.1%
Team Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Texas A&M Braden Mann 5'11, 205 FR 40 64.4 28 70.0% 0 1 0 0
Texas A&M Daniel LaCamera 6'4, 223 SO 4 68.0 2 50.0% 0 1 0 0
Alabama Adam Griffith 5'10, 191 SR 53 63.3 30 56.6% 0 1 0 0
Alabama Andy Pappanastos 5'11, 198 JR 2 57.0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0
Team Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Texas A&M Daniel LaCamera 6'4, 223 SO 29-29 12-16 75.0%
Alabama Adam Griffith 5'10, 191 SR 40-40 8-12 66.7%
Alabama Andy Pappanastos 5'11, 198 JR 2-2 0-0 #DIV/0!
Team Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Texas A&M Justin Evans 6'1, 200 SR 6 23.7 0 0 0 (0)
Texas A&M Speedy Noil 5'11, 200 JR 4 22.5 0 0 0 (0)
Alabama Trevon Diggs 6'2, 195 FR 7 23.7 0 0 0 (0)
Alabama Xavian Marks 5'8, 166 SO 7 17.6 0 0 0 (0)
Team Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Texas A&M Christian Kirk 5'11, 200 SO 5 5.2 0 20 1 (1)
Texas A&M Nick Harvey 5'10, 185 JR 1 73.0 1 3 0 (0)
Alabama Eddie Jackson 6'0, 194 SR 9 25.8 2 8 0 (0)
Alabama Xavian Marks 5'8, 166 SO 5 21.0 1 2 0 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics