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Texas A&M Aggies (6-0) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0)
October 22, 2016 ( 3:30 PM ET, CBS )
Spread: Alabama -19
S&P+ Projection: Alabama (35.2-21.5)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Texas A&M | Alabama | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 11 | 2 | ||
| Category | Texas A&M offense | Alabama defense | Alabama offense | Texas A&M defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 6.52 (16) | 4.23 (8) | 6.57 (14) | 5.17 (51) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 538.0 (6) | 286.0 (7) | 487.0 (22) | 448.3 (106) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.59 (45) | 1.07 (5) | 3.57 (5) | 1.22 (12) |
| Category | Texas A&M offense | Alabama defense | Alabama offense | Texas A&M defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 38.8 (17) | 11.6 (3) | 40.5 (10) | 22.4 (25) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 113.0 (40) | 177.8 (2) | 142.0 (3) | 88.2 (109) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 123.1 (18) | 158.3 (2) | 109.7 (45) | 107.5 (46) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 115.3 (22) | 138.6 (3) | 116.4 (19) | 96.8 (83) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 127.4 (26) | 233.2 (2) | 153.0 (4) | 105.7 (50) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 112.8 (49) | 165.3 (4) | 134.6 (13) | 90.1 (100) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 132.4 (9) | 168.1 (3) | 123.6 (23) | 104.3 (62) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 115.1 (33) | 183.3 (1) | 131.8 (17) | 135.9 (12) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 114.7 (28) | 104.3 (49) | 113.0 (31) | 91.4 (99) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Texas A&M
- Run Stuffs (No. 5 defense vs. No. 51 offense)
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 48 defense vs. No. 80 offense)
- Field Position (No. 39 defense vs. No. 65 offense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 103 offense vs. No. 125 defense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 2 defense vs. No. 19 offense)
Alabama
- Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 3 offense vs. No. 121 defense)
- Rushing S&P+ (No. 3 offense vs. No. 109 defense)
- Adj. Line Yards (No. 17 offense vs. No. 100 defense)
- Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 8 offense vs. No. 91 defense)
- Q1 S&P+ (No. 3 vs. No. 72 )
Five Factors
| Category | Texas A&M offense | Alabama defense | Alabama offense | Texas A&M defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.44 (9) | 1.42 (118) | 1.29 (62) | 1.24 (65) |
| EFFICIENCY | 42.9% (58) | 25.6% (2) | 49.7% (10) | 37.7% (36) |
| FIELD POSITION | 31.8 (33) | 26.9 (24) | 29.8 (65) | 27.7 (39) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 5.0 (51) | 3.4 (15) | 6.4 (1) | 3.1 (7) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN |
EXPECTED: Texas A&M 5.04 (8) Alabama 4.91 (11) |
ACTUAL Texas A&M 6 (12) Alabama 4 (28) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Texas A&M offense | Alabama offense |
| Adj. Pace | 6.0 (20) | 0.7 (58) |
| Plays per game | 82.5 (14) | 74.1 (69) |
| Possessions per game | 15.5 (2) | 12.7 (83) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 55.9% (86) | 59.6% (69) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 36.4% (47) | 41.4% (27) |
| % of solo tackles | 74.7% (59) | 78.1% (35) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Texas A&M defense | Alabama defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 55.5% (93) | 54.7% (99) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 31.5% (87) | 23.9% (122) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 22.2% (4) | 22.4% (3) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 12.6% (15) | 13.9% (7) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 9.6% (5) | 8.5% (14) |
| PD to INC | 39.6% (21) | 34.9% (50) |
When Texas A&M has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Texas A&M Offense | Alabama Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 115.3 | 22 | 138.6 | 3 | Alabama |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 46.1 | 78 | 32.0 | 2 | Alabama big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.22 | 26 | 1.11 | 127 | Texas A&M big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.12 | 41 | 2.29 | 13 | Alabama |
| SD Sack Rate | 1.5% | 11 | 9% | 15 | |
Passing Downs
| Texas A&M Offense | Alabama Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 127.4 | 26 | 233.2 | 2 | Alabama |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 34.8 | 34 | 16.2 | 3 | Alabama |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 2.18 | 7 | 1.61 | 1 | |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 4.51 | 3 | 1.79 | 3 | |
| PD Sack Rate | 2.7% | 9 | 11.2% | 20 | Texas A&M |
When Alabama has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Alabama Offense | Texas A&M Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 116.4 | 19 | 96.8 | 83 | Alabama big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 54.8 | 7 | 42.1 | 26 | Alabama |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.06 | 91 | 1.46 | 71 | Texas A&M |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.41 | 13 | 2.65 | 36 | Alabama |
| SD Sack Rate | 5.4% | 80 | 5.6% | 48 | Texas A&M |
Passing Downs
| Alabama Offense | Texas A&M Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 153.0 | 4 | 105.7 | 50 | Alabama |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 37.9 | 17 | 29.5 | 59 | Alabama |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 2.09 | 15 | 1.30 | 35 | Alabama |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.71 | 41 | 2.95 | 51 | |
| PD Sack Rate | 5.9% | 44 | 9.8% | 42 | |
Individual Passing Stats
| Team | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate |
Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
| Texas A&M | Trevor Knight | 6'1, 215 | SR | 115 | 215 | 1500 | 9 | 5 | 53.5% | 4 | 1.8% | 6.8 |
| Texas A&M | Jake Hubenak | 6'3, 215 | JR | 5 | 11 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 45.5% | 2 | 15.4% | 2.2 |
| Texas A&M | Conner McQueen | 5'10, 175 | SR | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 1.0 |
| Alabama | Jalen Hurts | 6'2, 209 | FR | 113 | 178 | 1385 | 9 | 3 | 63.5% | 7 | 3.8% | 7.2 |
| Alabama | Blake Barnett | 6'5, 211 | FR | 11 | 19 | 219 | 2 | 0 | 57.9% | 4 | 17.4% | 8.7 |
| Alabama | Cooper Bateman | 6'3, 220 | JR | 9 | 10 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 90.0% | 1 | 9.1% | 5.5 |
Individual Rushing Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry |
Hlt Yds/ Opp. |
Opp. Rate |
| Texas A&M | Trayveon Williams | RB | 5'9, 200 | FR | 82 | 704 | 5 | 8.6 | 10.3 | 45.1% |
| Texas A&M | Trevor Knight | QB | 6'1, 215 | SR | 62 | 522 | 9 | 8.4 | 10.4 | 46.8% |
| Texas A&M | Keith Ford | RB | 5'11, 215 | JR | 49 | 242 | 3 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 34.7% |
| Texas A&M | James White | RB | 6'0, 217 | JR | 16 | 70 | 1 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 43.8% |
| Alabama | Damien Harris | RB | 5'11, 214 | SO | 70 | 572 | 1 | 8.2 | 10.0 | 45.7% |
| Alabama | Jalen Hurts | QB | 6'2, 209 | FR | 67 | 484 | 8 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 53.7% |
| Alabama | Joshua Jacobs | RB | 5'10, 204 | FR | 43 | 345 | 3 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 53.5% |
| Alabama | Bo Scarbrough | RB | 6'2, 228 | SO | 43 | 273 | 5 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 34.9% |
| NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. | ||||||||||
Individual Receiving Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch |
Yds/ Target |
Catch Rate |
| Texas A&M | Christian Kirk | WR | 5'11, 200 | SO | 60 | 40 | 352 | 4 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 66.7% |
| Texas A&M | Josh Reynolds | WR | 6'4, 193 | SR | 40 | 25 | 488 | 4 | 19.5 | 12.2 | 62.5% |
| Texas A&M | Ricky Seals-Jones | WR | 6'5, 240 | JR | 28 | 10 | 175 | 0 | 17.5 | 6.3 | 35.7% |
| Texas A&M | Speedy Noil | WR | 5'11, 200 | JR | 20 | 8 | 116 | 1 | 14.5 | 5.8 | 40.0% |
| Texas A&M | Trayveon Williams | RB | 5'9, 200 | FR | 19 | 13 | 71 | 0 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 68.4% |
| Texas A&M | Jeremy Tabuyo | WR | 5'11, 195 | SR | 17 | 8 | 149 | 0 | 18.6 | 8.8 | 47.1% |
| Texas A&M | Frank Iheanacho | WR | 6'6, 230 | SO | 8 | 6 | 48 | 0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 75.0% |
| Alabama | Calvin Ridley | WR | 6'1, 188 | SO | 64 | 39 | 477 | 4 | 12.2 | 7.5 | 60.9% |
| Alabama | ArDarius Stewart | WR | 6'1, 204 | JR | 35 | 26 | 379 | 3 | 14.6 | 10.8 | 74.3% |
| Alabama | O.J. Howard | TE | 6'6, 251 | SR | 19 | 14 | 209 | 1 | 14.9 | 11.0 | 73.7% |
| Alabama | Gehrig Dieter | WR | 6'3, 207 | SR | 19 | 8 | 175 | 1 | 21.9 | 9.2 | 42.1% |
| Alabama | Trevon Diggs | WR | 6'2, 195 | FR | 11 | 7 | 64 | 0 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 63.6% |
| Alabama | Cam Sims | WR | 6'5, 203 | JR | 9 | 6 | 65 | 0 | 10.8 | 7.2 | 66.7% |
| Alabama | Josh Jacobs | RB | 5'10, 204 | FR | 8 | 6 | 75 | 0 | 12.5 | 9.4 | 75.0% |
Individual Defensive Stats
| Team | Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
| Texas A&M | Justin Evans | DB | 6'1, 200 | SR | 40.5 | 10.9% | 3.0 | 0.0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Texas A&M | Shaan Washington | LB | 6'3, 240 | SR | 33.0 | 8.8% | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Texas A&M | Nick Harvey | DB | 5'10, 185 | JR | 32.0 | 8.6% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Texas A&M | Armani Watts | DB | 5'11, 200 | JR | 30.0 | 8.0% | 4.5 | 1.0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Texas A&M | Donovan Wilson | DB | 6'1, 206 | JR | 25.5 | 6.8% | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Texas A&M | Otaro Alaka | LB | 6'3, 240 | SO | 22.0 | 5.9% | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Texas A&M | Claude George | LB | 6'2, 240 | SR | 21.5 | 5.8% | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Texas A&M | Priest Willis | DB | 6'2, 200 | JR | 20.0 | 5.4% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Texas A&M | Daeshon Hall | DL | 6'6, 270 | SR | 18.5 | 5.0% | 9.0 | 3.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Texas A&M | Tyrel Dodson | LB | 6'2, 245 | FR | 11.5 | 3.1% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Texas A&M | Myles Garrett | DL | 6'5, 270 | JR | 11.0 | 2.9% | 6.0 | 4.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Texas A&M | Alex Sezer Jr. | DB | 5'9, 180 | SR | 11.0 | 2.9% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Texas A&M | Zaycoven Henderson | DL | 6'2, 300 | JR | 10.0 | 2.7% | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alabama | Shaun Dion Hamilton | LB | 6'0, 232 | JR | 31.5 | 8.9% | 7.5 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Alabama | Reuben Foster | LB | 6'1, 236 | SR | 31.0 | 8.8% | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Alabama | Ronnie Harrison | DB | 6'3, 216 | SO | 27.5 | 7.8% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Alabama | Minkah Fitzpatrick | DB | 6'1, 203 | SO | 26.5 | 7.5% | 2.0 | 1.5 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Alabama | Jonathan Allen | DL | 6'3, 291 | SR | 22.0 | 6.2% | 5.5 | 5.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Alabama | Rashaan Evans | LB | 6'3, 231 | JR | 19.5 | 5.5% | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Alabama | Ryan Anderson | LB | 6'2, 253 | SR | 18.5 | 5.2% | 8.5 | 4.5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Alabama | Anthony Averett | DB | 6'0, 183 | JR | 18.5 | 5.2% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Alabama | Eddie Jackson | DB | 6'0, 194 | SR | 16.5 | 4.7% | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Alabama | Dalvin Tomlinson | DL | 6'3, 305 | SR | 15.0 | 4.2% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Alabama | Marlon Humphrey | DB | 6'1, 196 | SO | 14.5 | 4.1% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Alabama | Keith Holcombe | LB | 6'4, 227 | SO | 13.5 | 3.8% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alabama | Tim Williams | LB | 6'4, 252 | SR | 12.0 | 3.4% | 7.5 | 4.5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. | ||||||||||||
Individual Special Teams Stats
| Team | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
| Texas A&M | Shane Tripucka | 6'3, 210 | JR | 33 | 43.6 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 45.5% |
| Alabama | JK Scott | 6'6, 202 | JR | 26 | 47.0 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 73.1% |
| Team | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches |
Onside Att |
Onside Success |
| Texas A&M | Braden Mann | 5'11, 205 | FR | 40 | 64.4 | 28 | 70.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Texas A&M | Daniel LaCamera | 6'4, 223 | SO | 4 | 68.0 | 2 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alabama | Adam Griffith | 5'10, 191 | SR | 53 | 63.3 | 30 | 56.6% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alabama | Andy Pappanastos | 5'11, 198 | JR | 2 | 57.0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
| Texas A&M | Daniel LaCamera | 6'4, 223 | SO | 29-29 | 12-16 | 75.0% |
| Alabama | Adam Griffith | 5'10, 191 | SR | 40-40 | 8-12 | 66.7% |
| Alabama | Andy Pappanastos | 5'11, 198 | JR | 2-2 | 0-0 | #DIV/0! |
| Team | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Texas A&M | Justin Evans | 6'1, 200 | SR | 6 | 23.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Texas A&M | Speedy Noil | 5'11, 200 | JR | 4 | 22.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Alabama | Trevon Diggs | 6'2, 195 | FR | 7 | 23.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Alabama | Xavian Marks | 5'8, 166 | SO | 7 | 17.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Team | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Texas A&M | Christian Kirk | 5'11, 200 | SO | 5 | 5.2 | 0 | 20 | 1 (1) |
| Texas A&M | Nick Harvey | 5'10, 185 | JR | 1 | 73.0 | 1 | 3 | 0 (0) |
| Alabama | Eddie Jackson | 6'0, 194 | SR | 9 | 25.8 | 2 | 8 | 0 (0) |
| Alabama | Xavian Marks | 5'8, 166 | SO | 5 | 21.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 (0) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics