Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0) vs. Tennessee Volunteers (5-1)
October 15, 2016
October 15, 2016 (3:30 PM ET, CBS)
Spread: Alabama -13
S&P+ Projection: Alabama (33.4 - 22.2)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Alabama | Tennessee | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 1 | 15 | ||
| Category | Alabama offense | Tennessee defense | Tennessee offense | Alabama defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 6.40 (17) | 5.14 (53) | 5.64 (64) | 4.47 (16) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 471.7 (32) | 398.5 (64) | 432.3 (51) | 304.0 (14) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 3.54 (8) | 1.78 (43) | 2.23 (71) | 1.14 (8) |
| Category | Alabama offense | Tennessee defense | Tennessee offense | Alabama defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 41.4 (8) | 21.4 (17) | 36.2 (27) | 12.4 (5) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 131.0 (7) | 108.6 (43) | 122.4 (18) | 174.3 (2) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 111.3 (44) | 111.8 (34) | 140.4 (4) | 152.2 (3) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 113.6 (30) | 103.6 (50) | 121.9 (11) | 133.7 (5) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 138.7 (17) | 127.8 (18) | 140.0 (15) | 235.3 (3) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 143.5 (7) | 98.5 (75) | 124.6 (24) | 157.4 (6) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 116.1 (38) | 121.1 (27) | 127.6 (18) | 166.4 (6) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 117.2 (28) | 124.1 (19) | 117.2 (29) | 195.3 (1) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 103.9 (58) | 94.4 (88) | 150.7 (1) | 97.8 (70) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Alabama
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 14 defense vs. No. 99 offense)
- Second Down S&P+ (No. 6 offense vs. No. 62 defense)
- Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 19 offense vs. No. 65 defense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 1 offense vs. No. 41 defense)
- Q1 S&P+ (No. 3 vs. No. 41 )
Tennessee
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 52 offense vs. No. 122 defense)
- Q4 S&P+ (No. 6 vs. No. 67)
- Run Stuffs (No. 37 defense vs. No. 57 offense)
- Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 29 defense vs. No. 46 offense)
- Field Position (No. 39 defense vs. No. 56 offense)
Five Factors
| Category | Alabama offense | Tennessee defense | Tennessee offense | Alabama defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.31 (57) | 1.17 (26) | 1.23 (88) | 1.58 (126) |
| EFFICIENCY | 48.3% (13) | 40.1% (52) | 42.9% (55) | 25.5% (2) |
| FIELD POSITION | 30.6 (56) | 27.9 (39) | 35.6 (5) | 26.1 (13) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 6.4 (3) | 4.7 (70) | 4.5 (87) | 3.5 (16) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN |
EXPECTED: Alabama 4.83 (8) Tennessee -6.42 (127) |
ACTUAL Alabama 5 (18) Tennessee -3 (97) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Alabama offense | Tennessee offense |
| Adj. Pace | -0.1 (62) | 3.1 (41) |
| Plays per game | 73.7 (71) | 76.7 (47) |
| Possessions per game | 12.7 (86) | 15.2 (9) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 59.3% (66) | 63.8% (41) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 41.6% (23) | 38.2% (36) |
| % of solo tackles | 76.6% (47) | 67.2% (108) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Alabama defense | Tennessee defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 52.8% (109) | 61.8% (43) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 24.7% (117) | 40.9% (23) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 21.4% (10) | 15.6% (81) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 13.0% (17) | 9.9% (55) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 8.4% (19) | 5.6% (92) |
| PD to INC | 32.3% (69) | 32.5% (65) |
When Alabama has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Alabama Offense | Tennessee Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 113.6 | 30 | 103.6 | 50 | Alabama |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 53.5 | 12 | 46.3 | 64 | Alabama big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.08 | 86 | 1.58 | 54 | Tennessee |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.30 | 24 | 3.09 | 94 | Alabama big |
| SD Sack Rate | 5.4% | 74 | 2.8% | 105 | Alabama |
Passing Downs
| Alabama Offense | Tennessee Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 138.7 | 17 | 127.8 | 18 | |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 36.6 | 21 | 27.0 | 37 | Alabama |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 2.05 | 19 | 1.57 | 14 | |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.36 | 62 | 2.81 | 37 | Tennessee |
| PD Sack Rate | 5.1% | 36 | 7.4% | 65 | Alabama |
When Tennessee has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Tennessee Offense | Alabama Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 121.9 | 11 | 133.7 | 5 | |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 47.6 | 56 | 32.4 | 3 | Alabama big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.11 | 74 | 1.07 | 128 | Tennessee big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.06 | 57 | 2.23 | 10 | Alabama |
| SD Sack Rate | 7.1% | 99 | 9% | 14 | Alabama big |
Passing Downs
| Tennessee Offense | Alabama Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 140.0 | 15 | 235.3 | 3 | Alabama |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 32.4 | 53 | 15.5 | 4 | Alabama |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.64 | 86 | 1.50 | 27 | Alabama big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.55 | 47 | 2.27 | 15 | Alabama |
| PD Sack Rate | 7.1% | 54 | 9.6% | 42 | Alabama |
Individual Passing Stats
| Team | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate |
Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
| Alabama | Jalen Hurts | 6'2, 209 | FR | 97 | 152 | 1242 | 9 | 2 | 63.8% | 5 | 3.2% | 7.7 |
| Alabama | Blake Barnett | 6'5, 211 | FR | 11 | 19 | 219 | 2 | 0 | 57.9% | 4 | 17.4% | 8.7 |
| Alabama | Cooper Bateman | 6'3, 220 | JR | 8 | 9 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 88.9% | 1 | 10.0% | 4.7 |
| Tennessee | Joshua Dobbs | 6'3, 210 | SR | 105 | 180 | 1433 | 14 | 8 | 58.3% | 14 | 7.2% | 6.8 |
Individual Rushing Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry |
Hlt Yds/ Opp. |
Opp. Rate |
| Alabama | Jalen Hurts | QB | 6'2, 209 | FR | 57 | 333 | 5 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 49.1% |
| Alabama | Damien Harris | RB | 5'11, 214 | SO | 56 | 478 | 1 | 8.5 | 11.8 | 42.9% |
| Alabama | Bo Scarbrough | RB | 6'2, 228 | SO | 38 | 164 | 4 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 31.6% |
| Alabama | Joshua Jacobs | RB | 5'10, 204 | FR | 37 | 307 | 3 | 8.3 | 7.4 | 54.1% |
| Tennessee | Jalen Hurd | RB | 6'4, 240 | JR | 103 | 409 | 2 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 37.9% |
| Tennessee | Joshua Dobbs | QB | 6'3, 210 | SR | 69 | 433 | 5 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 47.8% |
| Tennessee | Alvin Kamara | RB | 5'10, 215 | JR | 56 | 292 | 2 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 35.7% |
| Tennessee | John Kelly | RB | 5'9, 212 | SO | 16 | 107 | 2 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 50.0% |
| NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. | ||||||||||
Individual Receiving Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch |
Yds/ Target |
Catch Rate |
| Alabama | Calvin Ridley | WR | 6'1, 188 | SO | 56 | 34 | 412 | 4 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 60.7% |
| Alabama | ArDarius Stewart | WR | 6'1, 204 | JR | 26 | 18 | 325 | 3 | 18.1 | 12.5 | 69.2% |
| Alabama | O.J. Howard | TE | 6'6, 251 | SR | 17 | 13 | 186 | 1 | 14.3 | 10.9 | 76.5% |
| Alabama | Gehrig Dieter | WR | 6'3, 207 | SR | 17 | 8 | 175 | 1 | 21.9 | 10.3 | 47.1% |
| Alabama | Cam Sims | WR | 6'5, 203 | JR | 9 | 6 | 65 | 0 | 10.8 | 7.2 | 66.7% |
| Alabama | Trevon Diggs | WR | 6'2, 195 | FR | 9 | 6 | 51 | 0 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 66.7% |
| Alabama | Damien Harris | RB | 5'11, 214 | SO | 7 | 7 | 81 | 1 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 100.0% |
| Tennessee | Josh Malone | WR | 6'3, 200 | JR | 35 | 17 | 341 | 5 | 20.1 | 9.7 | 48.6% |
| Tennessee | Alvin Kamara | RB | 5'10, 215 | JR | 28 | 20 | 253 | 3 | 12.7 | 9.0 | 71.4% |
| Tennessee | Jauan Jennings | WR | 6'3, 205 | SO | 23 | 17 | 281 | 3 | 16.5 | 12.2 | 73.9% |
| Tennessee | Josh Smith | WR | 6'1, 213 | JR | 20 | 7 | 42 | 0 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 35.0% |
| Tennessee | Tyler Byrd | WR | 6'0, 195 | FR | 14 | 9 | 119 | 0 | 13.2 | 8.5 | 64.3% |
| Tennessee | Ethan Wolf | TE | 6'6, 245 | JR | 14 | 8 | 81 | 1 | 10.1 | 5.8 | 57.1% |
| Tennessee | Jason Croom | TE | 6'5, 246 | SR | 12 | 8 | 119 | 0 | 14.9 | 9.9 | 66.7% |
Individual Defensive Stats
| Team | Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
| Alabama | Reuben Foster | LB | 6'1, 236 | SR | 28.0 | 9.4% | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alabama | Shaun Dion Hamilton | LB | 6'0, 232 | JR | 26.0 | 8.7% | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Alabama | Minkah Fitzpatrick | DB | 6'1, 203 | SO | 21.5 | 7.2% | 2.0 | 1.5 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Alabama | Ronnie Harrison | DB | 6'3, 216 | SO | 21.0 | 7.0% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Alabama | Jonathan Allen | DL | 6'3, 291 | SR | 18.5 | 6.2% | 4.5 | 4.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Alabama | Rashaan Evans | LB | 6'3, 231 | JR | 17.5 | 5.9% | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Alabama | Ryan Anderson | LB | 6'2, 253 | SR | 16.5 | 5.5% | 7.5 | 4.5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Alabama | Eddie Jackson | DB | 6'0, 194 | SR | 14.5 | 4.9% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Alabama | Anthony Averett | DB | 6'0, 183 | JR | 14.5 | 4.9% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Alabama | Marlon Humphrey | DB | 6'1, 196 | SO | 13.5 | 4.5% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Alabama | Dalvin Tomlinson | DL | 6'3, 305 | SR | 11.5 | 3.9% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Alabama | Keith Holcombe | LB | 6'4, 227 | SO | 11.0 | 3.7% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alabama | Tim Williams | LB | 6'4, 252 | SR | 10.0 | 3.4% | 5.5 | 3.5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Tennessee | Colton Jumper | LB | 6'2, 224 | JR | 31.5 | 9.4% | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tennessee | Todd Kelly Jr. | DB | 5'11, 208 | JR | 31.0 | 9.2% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tennessee | Micah Abernathy | DB | 6'0, 195 | SO | 25.5 | 7.6% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tennessee | Cortez McDowell | LB | 6'0, 235 | JR | 25.0 | 7.4% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tennessee | Emmanuel Moseley | DB | 5'11, 180 | JR | 24.5 | 7.3% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Tennessee | Rashaan Gaulden | DB | 6'1, 185 | SO | 24.0 | 7.1% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tennessee | Derek Barnett | DE | 6'3, 265 | JR | 23.5 | 7.0% | 9.5 | 5.0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Tennessee | Jalen Reeves-Maybin | LB | 6'0, 230 | SR | 16.0 | 4.8% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tennessee | Darrin Kirkland Jr. | LB | 6'1, 230 | SO | 13.5 | 4.0% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tennessee | Kendal Vickers | DL | 6'3, 295 | JR | 13.0 | 3.9% | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tennessee | Corey Vereen | DL | 6'2, 249 | SR | 12.0 | 3.6% | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Tennessee | Danny O'Brien | DL | 6'2, 301 | SR | 11.0 | 3.3% | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tennessee | Malik Foreman | DB | 5'10, 190 | SR | 10.5 | 3.1% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. | ||||||||||||
Individual Special Teams Stats
| Team | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
| Alabama | JK Scott | 6'6, 202 | JR | 22 | 46.5 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 86.4% |
| Tennessee | Trevor Daniel | 6'1, 248 | JR | 35 | 42.5 | 3 | 18 | 16 | 97.1% |
| Team | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches |
Onside Att |
Onside Success |
| Alabama | Adam Griffith | 5'10, 191 | SR | 45 | 63.3 | 26 | 57.8% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alabama | Andy Pappanastos | 5'11, 198 | JR | 2 | 57.0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tennessee | Aaron Medley | 6'2, 194 | JR | 35 | 64.1 | 22 | 62.9% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
| Alabama | Adam Griffith | 5'10, 191 | SR | 33-33 | 8-11 | 72.7% |
| Alabama | Andy Pappanastos | 5'11, 198 | JR | 2-2 | 0-0 | #DIV/0! |
| Tennessee | Aaron Medley | 6'2, 194 | JR | 26-26 | 5-7 | 71.4% |
| Team | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Alabama | Trevon Diggs | 6'2, 195 | FR | 7 | 23.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Alabama | Xavian Marks | 5'8, 166 | SO | 7 | 17.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Tennessee | Evan Berry | 5'11, 207 | JR | 9 | 27.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 (1) |
| Tennessee | Micah Abernathy | 6'0, 195 | SO | 5 | 21.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 (0) |
| Team | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Alabama | Eddie Jackson | 6'0, 194 | SR | 5 | 24.8 | 1 | 4 | 0 (0) |
| Alabama | Xavian Marks | 5'8, 166 | SO | 5 | 21.0 | 1 | 2 | 0 (0) |
| Tennessee | Alvin Kamara | 5'10, 215 | JR | 16 | 7.8 | 0 | 1 | 3 (0) |
| Tennessee | Cameron Sutton | 5'11, 186 | SR | 4 | 3.5 | 0 | 4 | 1 (1) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics