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Alabama at Tennessee: Advanced stats tale of the tape

Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0) vs. Tennessee Volunteers (5-1)

October 15, 2016
October 15, 2016 (3:30 PM ET, CBS)
Spread: Alabama -13
S&P+ Projection: Alabama (33.4 - 22.2)

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category Alabama Tennessee
S&P+ (Rk) 1 15
Category Alabama offense Tennessee defense Tennessee offense Alabama defense
Yards per play (Rk) 6.40 (17) 5.14 (53) 5.64 (64) 4.47 (16)
Yards per game (Rk) 471.7 (32) 398.5 (64) 432.3 (51) 304.0 (14)
Points per possession (Rk) 3.54 (8) 1.78 (43) 2.23 (71) 1.14 (8)
Category Alabama offense Tennessee defense Tennessee offense Alabama defense
S&P+ (Rk) 41.4 (8) 21.4 (17) 36.2 (27) 12.4 (5)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 131.0 (7) 108.6 (43) 122.4 (18) 174.3 (2)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 111.3 (44) 111.8 (34) 140.4 (4) 152.2 (3)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 113.6 (30) 103.6 (50) 121.9 (11) 133.7 (5)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 138.7 (17) 127.8 (18) 140.0 (15) 235.3 (3)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 143.5 (7) 98.5 (75) 124.6 (24) 157.4 (6)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 116.1 (38) 121.1 (27) 127.6 (18) 166.4 (6)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 117.2 (28) 124.1 (19) 117.2 (29) 195.3 (1)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 103.9 (58) 94.4 (88) 150.7 (1) 97.8 (70)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

Alabama

  1. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 14 defense vs. No. 99 offense)
  2. Second Down S&P+ (No. 6 offense vs. No. 62 defense)
  3. Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 19 offense vs. No. 65 defense)
  4. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 1 offense vs. No. 41 defense)
  5. Q1 S&P+ (No. 3 vs. No. 41 )

Tennessee

  1. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 52 offense vs. No. 122 defense)
  2. Q4 S&P+ (No. 6 vs. No. 67)
  3. Run Stuffs (No. 37 defense vs. No. 57 offense)
  4. Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 29 defense vs. No. 46 offense)
  5. Field Position (No. 39 defense vs. No. 56 offense)
Five Factors
Category Alabama offense Tennessee defense Tennessee offense Alabama defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.31 (57) 1.17 (26) 1.23 (88) 1.58 (126)
EFFICIENCY 48.3% (13) 40.1% (52) 42.9% (55) 25.5% (2)
FIELD POSITION 30.6 (56) 27.9 (39) 35.6 (5) 26.1 (13)
FINISHING DRIVES 6.4 (3) 4.7 (70) 4.5 (87) 3.5 (16)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
Alabama 4.83 (8)
Tennessee -6.42 (127)
ACTUAL
Alabama 5 (18)
Tennessee -3 (97)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Alabama offense Tennessee offense
Adj. Pace -0.1 (62) 3.1 (41)
Plays per game 73.7 (71) 76.7 (47)
Possessions per game 12.7 (86) 15.2 (9)
Std. Downs Run Rate 59.3% (66) 63.8% (41)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 41.6% (23) 38.2% (36)
% of solo tackles 76.6% (47) 67.2% (108)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Alabama defense Tennessee defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 52.8% (109) 61.8% (43)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 24.7% (117) 40.9% (23)
Overall Havoc Rate 21.4% (10) 15.6% (81)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 13.0% (17) 9.9% (55)
DB Havoc Rate 8.4% (19) 5.6% (92)
PD to INC 32.3% (69) 32.5% (65)

When Alabama has the ball…

Standard Downs
Alabama Offense Tennessee Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 113.6 30 103.6 50 Alabama
Standard Downs Success Rate 53.5 12 46.3 64 Alabama big
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.08 86 1.58 54 Tennessee
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.30 24 3.09 94 Alabama big
SD Sack Rate 5.4% 74 2.8% 105 Alabama
Passing Downs
Alabama Offense Tennessee Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 138.7 17 127.8 18
Passing Downs Success Rate 36.6 21 27.0 37 Alabama
Passing Downs IsoPPP 2.05 19 1.57 14
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.36 62 2.81 37 Tennessee
PD Sack Rate 5.1% 36 7.4% 65 Alabama

When Tennessee has the ball…

Standard Downs
Tennessee Offense Alabama Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 121.9 11 133.7 5
Standard Downs Success Rate 47.6 56 32.4 3 Alabama big
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.11 74 1.07 128 Tennessee big
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.06 57 2.23 10 Alabama
SD Sack Rate 7.1% 99 9% 14 Alabama big
Passing Downs
Tennessee Offense Alabama Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 140.0 15 235.3 3 Alabama
Passing Downs Success Rate 32.4 53 15.5 4 Alabama
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.64 86 1.50 27 Alabama big
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.55 47 2.27 15 Alabama
PD Sack Rate 7.1% 54 9.6% 42 Alabama
Individual Passing Stats
Team Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Alabama Jalen Hurts 6'2, 209 FR 97 152 1242 9 2 63.8% 5 3.2% 7.7
Alabama Blake Barnett 6'5, 211 FR 11 19 219 2 0 57.9% 4 17.4% 8.7
Alabama Cooper Bateman 6'3, 220 JR 8 9 56 0 0 88.9% 1 10.0% 4.7
Tennessee Joshua Dobbs 6'3, 210 SR 105 180 1433 14 8 58.3% 14 7.2% 6.8
Individual Rushing Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Alabama Jalen Hurts QB 6'2, 209 FR 57 333 5 5.8 4.6 49.1%
Alabama Damien Harris RB 5'11, 214 SO 56 478 1 8.5 11.8 42.9%
Alabama Bo Scarbrough RB 6'2, 228 SO 38 164 4 4.3 3.9 31.6%
Alabama Joshua Jacobs RB 5'10, 204 FR 37 307 3 8.3 7.4 54.1%
Tennessee Jalen Hurd RB 6'4, 240 JR 103 409 2 4.0 2.9 37.9%
Tennessee Joshua Dobbs QB 6'3, 210 SR 69 433 5 6.3 5.8 47.8%
Tennessee Alvin Kamara RB 5'10, 215 JR 56 292 2 5.2 5.9 35.7%
Tennessee John Kelly RB 5'9, 212 SO 16 107 2 6.7 4.1 50.0%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Individual Receiving Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate
Alabama Calvin Ridley WR 6'1, 188 SO 56 34 412 4 12.1 7.4 60.7%
Alabama ArDarius Stewart WR 6'1, 204 JR 26 18 325 3 18.1 12.5 69.2%
Alabama O.J. Howard TE 6'6, 251 SR 17 13 186 1 14.3 10.9 76.5%
Alabama Gehrig Dieter WR 6'3, 207 SR 17 8 175 1 21.9 10.3 47.1%
Alabama Cam Sims WR 6'5, 203 JR 9 6 65 0 10.8 7.2 66.7%
Alabama Trevon Diggs WR 6'2, 195 FR 9 6 51 0 8.5 5.7 66.7%
Alabama Damien Harris RB 5'11, 214 SO 7 7 81 1 11.6 11.6 100.0%
Tennessee Josh Malone WR 6'3, 200 JR 35 17 341 5 20.1 9.7 48.6%
Tennessee Alvin Kamara RB 5'10, 215 JR 28 20 253 3 12.7 9.0 71.4%
Tennessee Jauan Jennings WR 6'3, 205 SO 23 17 281 3 16.5 12.2 73.9%
Tennessee Josh Smith WR 6'1, 213 JR 20 7 42 0 6.0 2.1 35.0%
Tennessee Tyler Byrd WR 6'0, 195 FR 14 9 119 0 13.2 8.5 64.3%
Tennessee Ethan Wolf TE 6'6, 245 JR 14 8 81 1 10.1 5.8 57.1%
Tennessee Jason Croom TE 6'5, 246 SR 12 8 119 0 14.9 9.9 66.7%
Individual Defensive Stats
Team Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Alabama Reuben Foster LB 6'1, 236 SR 28.0 9.4% 2.5 0.5 0 1 0 0
Alabama Shaun Dion Hamilton LB 6'0, 232 JR 26.0 8.7% 5.5 2.0 0 0 1 0
Alabama Minkah Fitzpatrick DB 6'1, 203 SO 21.5 7.2% 2.0 1.5 3 5 1 0
Alabama Ronnie Harrison DB 6'3, 216 SO 21.0 7.0% 0.0 0.0 1 1 0 1
Alabama Jonathan Allen DL 6'3, 291 SR 18.5 6.2% 4.5 4.0 0 2 0 1
Alabama Rashaan Evans LB 6'3, 231 JR 17.5 5.9% 1.5 1.5 0 0 1 0
Alabama Ryan Anderson LB 6'2, 253 SR 16.5 5.5% 7.5 4.5 0 0 2 0
Alabama Eddie Jackson DB 6'0, 194 SR 14.5 4.9% 1.5 0.0 1 2 0 0
Alabama Anthony Averett DB 6'0, 183 JR 14.5 4.9% 1.0 0.0 0 2 1 0
Alabama Marlon Humphrey DB 6'1, 196 SO 13.5 4.5% 1.0 0.0 1 3 1 0
Alabama Dalvin Tomlinson DL 6'3, 305 SR 11.5 3.9% 1.0 1.0 0 2 0 0
Alabama Keith Holcombe LB 6'4, 227 SO 11.0 3.7% 1.0 0.0 0 1 0 0
Alabama Tim Williams LB 6'4, 252 SR 10.0 3.4% 5.5 3.5 0 1 2 1
Tennessee Colton Jumper LB 6'2, 224 JR 31.5 9.4% 2.5 0.0 1 1 1 0
Tennessee Todd Kelly Jr. DB 5'11, 208 JR 31.0 9.2% 1.0 0.0 2 1 1 0
Tennessee Micah Abernathy DB 6'0, 195 SO 25.5 7.6% 1.0 0.0 0 2 0 0
Tennessee Cortez McDowell LB 6'0, 235 JR 25.0 7.4% 2.0 0.0 0 1 0 0
Tennessee Emmanuel Moseley DB 5'11, 180 JR 24.5 7.3% 0.5 0.0 0 4 0 0
Tennessee Rashaan Gaulden DB 6'1, 185 SO 24.0 7.1% 0.5 0.0 0 2 0 0
Tennessee Derek Barnett DE 6'3, 265 JR 23.5 7.0% 9.5 5.0 0 2 1 0
Tennessee Jalen Reeves-Maybin LB 6'0, 230 SR 16.0 4.8% 2.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Tennessee Darrin Kirkland Jr. LB 6'1, 230 SO 13.5 4.0% 1.0 1.0 0 0 0 0
Tennessee Kendal Vickers DL 6'3, 295 JR 13.0 3.9% 4.5 1.0 0 0 1 0
Tennessee Corey Vereen DL 6'2, 249 SR 12.0 3.6% 3.5 2.0 0 3 0 0
Tennessee Danny O'Brien DL 6'2, 301 SR 11.0 3.3% 3.0 0.0 0 1 0 0
Tennessee Malik Foreman DB 5'10, 190 SR 10.5 3.1% 0.5 0.0 1 2 1 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Alabama JK Scott 6'6, 202 JR 22 46.5 4 9 10 86.4%
Tennessee Trevor Daniel 6'1, 248 JR 35 42.5 3 18 16 97.1%
Team Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Alabama Adam Griffith 5'10, 191 SR 45 63.3 26 57.8% 0 1 0 0
Alabama Andy Pappanastos 5'11, 198 JR 2 57.0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0
Tennessee Aaron Medley 6'2, 194 JR 35 64.1 22 62.9% 0 1 0 0
Team Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Alabama Adam Griffith 5'10, 191 SR 33-33 8-11 72.7%
Alabama Andy Pappanastos 5'11, 198 JR 2-2 0-0 #DIV/0!
Tennessee Aaron Medley 6'2, 194 JR 26-26 5-7 71.4%
Team Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Alabama Trevon Diggs 6'2, 195 FR 7 23.7 0 0 0 (0)
Alabama Xavian Marks 5'8, 166 SO 7 17.6 0 0 0 (0)
Tennessee Evan Berry 5'11, 207 JR 9 27.0 0 0 1 (1)
Tennessee Micah Abernathy 6'0, 195 SO 5 21.6 0 0 1 (0)
Team Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Alabama Eddie Jackson 6'0, 194 SR 5 24.8 1 4 0 (0)
Alabama Xavian Marks 5'8, 166 SO 5 21.0 1 2 0 (0)
Tennessee Alvin Kamara 5'10, 215 JR 16 7.8 0 1 3 (0)
Tennessee Cameron Sutton 5'11, 186 SR 4 3.5 0 4 1 (1)

Stats via SportSource Analytics