clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Ohio State at Wisconsin: Advanced stats tale of the tape

Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (4-1)

October 15, 2016 (8:00 PM ET, ABC)
Spread: Ohio State -10
S&P+ Projection: Ohio State (29.8 - 16.3)

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category Ohio State Wisconsin
S&P+ (Rk) 3 25
Category Ohio State offense Wisconsin defense Wisconsin offense Ohio State defense
Yards per play (Rk) 6.41 (16) 4.70 (23) 5.04 (102) 3.62 (3)
Yards per game (Rk) 511.4 (15) 290.2 (9) 368.6 (100) 246.6 (4)
Points per possession (Rk) 4.09 (1) 1.03 (6) 2.17 (75) 0.78 (2)
Category Ohio State offense Wisconsin defense Wisconsin offense Ohio State defense
S&P+ (Rk) 40.3 (11) 13.8 (6) 24.2 (100) 13.9 (7)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 144.6 (3) 137.8 (9) 110.9 (43) 144.4 (4)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 110.7 (46) 124.7 (15) 134.3 (13) 136.8 (5)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 131.2 (2) 125.6 (11) 113.0 (32) 131.0 (6)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 113.7 (48) 141.5 (11) 137.1 (18) 162.9 (6)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 116.4 (42) 144.2 (9) 143.3 (8) 127.4 (19)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 134.9 (11) 155.8 (7) 110.8 (53) 144.8 (9)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 124.3 (22) 127.2 (16) 114.2 (37) 157.3 (2)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 114.4 (36) 115.7 (25) 92.6 (100) 156.9 (3)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

Ohio State

  1. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 16 offense vs. No. 100 defense)
  2. Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 5 defense vs. No. 86 offense)
  3. Second Down S&P+ (No. 2 defense vs. No. 76 offense)
  4. Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 6 defense vs. No. 58 offense)
  5. Q4 S&P+ (No. 3 vs. No. 50 )

Wisconsin

  1. Third Down S&P+ (No. 2 offense vs. No. 93 defense)
  2. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 32 offense vs. No. 111 defense)
  3. Third Down S&P+ (No. 2 defense vs. No. 59 offense)
  4. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 48 offense vs. No. 101 defense)
  5. Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 12 defense vs. No. 52 offense)
Five Factors
Category Ohio State offense Wisconsin defense Wisconsin offense Ohio State defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.21 (94) 1.18 (31) 1.14 (115) 1.16 (20)
EFFICIENCY 54.5% (2) 34.2% (16) 40.1% (89) 32.9% (12)
FIELD POSITION 35.6 (6) 25.8 (11) 31.6 (42) 24.5 (5)
FINISHING DRIVES 6.5 (1) 2.9 (3) 4.2 (104) 3.2 (9)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
Ohio State 4.03 (13)
Wisconsin 1.90 (44)
ACTUAL
Ohio State 8 (5)
Wisconsin 0 (56)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Ohio State offense Wisconsin offense
Adj. Pace 7.0 (19) -1.1 (73)
Plays per game 79.8 (35) 73.2 (77)
Possessions per game 13.0 (67) 12.0 (111)
Std. Downs Run Rate 65.8% (28) 68.2% (21)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 46.3% (15) 30.0% (86)
% of solo tackles 73.6% (69) 67.4% (107)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Ohio State defense Wisconsin defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 67.1% (16) 59.9% (61)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 23.7% (122) 24.7% (118)
Overall Havoc Rate 22.1% (7) 19.9% (21)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 12.8% (19) 10.1% (53)
DB Havoc Rate 9.2% (11) 9.5% (9)
PD to INC 42.7% (10) 41.5% (12)

When Ohio State has the ball…

Standard Downs
Ohio State Offense Wisconsin Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 131.2 2 125.6 11
Standard Downs Success Rate 62.6 1 40.1 16 Ohio State
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.06 92 1.00 24 Wisconsin big
SD Line Yards per Carry 4.24 1 2.79 51 Ohio State
SD Sack Rate 1.5% 16 3.2% 100 Ohio State big
Passing Downs
Ohio State Offense Wisconsin Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 113.7 48 141.5 11 Wisconsin
Passing Downs Success Rate 31.3 58 23.6 19 Wisconsin
Passing Downs IsoPPP 2.05 18 1.73 65 Ohio State
PD Line Yards per Carry 4.19 7 1.47 3
PD Sack Rate 5.6% 39 11.9% 19 Wisconsin

When Wisconsin has the ball…

Standard Downs
Wisconsin Offense Ohio State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 113.0 32 131.0 6 Ohio State
Standard Downs Success Rate 43.3 107 39.9 14 Ohio State big
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.09 84 1.00 25 Ohio State big
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.08 53 2.32 13 Ohio State
SD Sack Rate 2.9% 32 2.1% 111 Wisconsin big
Passing Downs
Wisconsin Offense Ohio State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 137.1 18 162.9 6 Ohio State
Passing Downs Success Rate 33.0 47 19.7 8 Ohio State
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.30 125 1.73 66 Ohio State big
PD Line Yards per Carry 1.66 128 1.29 1 Ohio State big
PD Sack Rate 8.6% 74 6.9% 70
Individual Passing Stats
Team Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Ohio State J.T. Barrett 6'2, 222 JR 79 123 981 15 3 64.2% 3 2.4% 7.7
Ohio State Joe Burrow 6'3, 218 FR 10 13 89 1 0 76.9% 0 0.0% 6.8
Wisconsin Bart Houston 6'4, 235 SR 44 71 527 2 2 62.0% 4 5.3% 6.8
Wisconsin Alex Hornibrook 6'4, 219 FR 38 68 466 4 5 55.9% 4 5.6% 6.2
Individual Rushing Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Ohio State Mike Weber RB 5'10, 212 FR 83 566 4 6.8 5.7 47.0%
Ohio State J.T. Barrett QB 6'2, 222 JR 67 355 4 5.3 3.3 46.3%
Ohio State Curtis Samuel HB 5'11, 197 JR 50 410 3 8.2 5.0 70.0%
Ohio State Demario McCall RB 5'9, 182 FR 20 144 2 7.2 8.9 35.0%
Wisconsin Corey Clement RB 5'11, 227 SR 82 319 5 3.9 4.1 25.6%
Wisconsin Dare Ogunbowale RB 5'11, 205 SR 44 185 1 4.2 3.1 31.8%
Wisconsin Bradrick Shaw RB 6'1, 211 FR 24 136 1 5.7 4.2 54.2%
Wisconsin Taiwan Deal RB 6'1, 224 SO 20 94 0 4.7 2.2 45.0%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Individual Receiving Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate
Ohio State Curtis Samuel HB 5'11, 197 JR 28 23 345 3 15.0 12.3 82.1%
Ohio State Dontre Wilson WR 5'10, 195 SR 19 15 189 4 12.6 10.0 78.9%
Ohio State Noah Brown WR 6'2, 218 SO 17 12 165 5 13.8 9.7 70.6%
Ohio State Marcus Baugh TE 6'5, 258 JR 13 6 71 1 11.8 5.5 46.2%
Ohio State Parris Campbell WR 6'1, 208 SO 10 6 57 0 9.5 5.7 60.0%
Ohio State Johnnie Dixon WR 5'11, 198 SO 9 5 24 0 4.8 2.7 55.6%
Ohio State Mike Weber RB 5'10, 212 FR 8 6 19 0 3.2 2.4 75.0%
Wisconsin Jazz Peavy WR 6'0, 184 JR 38 17 281 2 16.5 7.4 44.7%
Wisconsin Robert Wheelwright WR 6'3, 211 SR 28 18 274 0 15.2 9.8 64.3%
Wisconsin Troy Fumagalli TE 6'6, 248 JR 22 16 181 0 11.3 8.2 72.7%
Wisconsin George Rushing WR 6'1, 192 JR 9 8 82 0 10.3 9.1 88.9%
Wisconsin Dare Ogunbowale RB 5'11, 205 SR 9 6 36 1 6.0 4.0 66.7%
Wisconsin Kyle Penniston TE 6'4, 236 FR 6 3 35 1 11.7 5.8 50.0%
Wisconsin Alec Ingold FB 6'2, 238 SO 6 4 21 1 5.3 3.5 66.7%
Individual Defensive Stats
Team Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Ohio State Raekwon McMillan LB 6'2, 243 JR 22.5 8.9% 2.5 0.0 0 1 1 0
Ohio State Jerome Baker LB 6'1, 225 SO 20.5 8.1% 3.5 1.5 1 0 0 1
Ohio State Malik Hooker S 6'2, 205 SO 20.0 7.9% 1.5 0.5 4 2 0 0
Ohio State Chris Worley LB 6'2, 228 JR 16.0 6.3% 1.5 0.0 0 3 0 0
Ohio State Damon Webb CB 5'10, 195 JR 15.5 6.1% 0.0 0.0 0 2 0 0
Ohio State Marshon Lattimore CB 6'0, 192 SO 13.0 5.1% 0.0 0.0 3 6 0 0
Ohio State Tyquan Lewis DL 6'4, 266 JR 11.0 4.3% 4.5 3.0 0 1 2 0
Ohio State Robert Landers DL 6'1, 285 FR 10.5 4.1% 7.0 1.0 0 0 0 0
Ohio State Nick Bosa DE 6'4, 265 FR 10.5 4.1% 4.0 2.0 0 0 0 0
Ohio State Dre'Mont Jones DL 6'3, 280 FR 10.5 4.1% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Ohio State Jalyn Holmes DE 6'5, 274 JR 10.0 3.9% 3.5 1.0 0 0 1 0
Ohio State Sam Hubbard DE 6'5, 266 SO 9.0 3.5% 2.5 1.5 0 1 0 0
Ohio State Gareon Conley CB 6'0, 195 JR 8.0 3.1% 0.0 0.0 1 4 0 0
Wisconsin Jack Cichy ILB 6'2, 233 JR 31.5 13.8% 3.5 0.5 0 2 1 0
Wisconsin T.J. Watt OLB 6'5, 243 JR 24.0 10.5% 7.5 5.5 0 1 0 0
Wisconsin T.J. Edwards ILB 6'1, 244 SO 21.0 9.2% 2.0 1.0 1 0 0 0
Wisconsin Leo Musso S 5'10, 194 SR 19.0 8.3% 0.5 0.0 1 1 0 1
Wisconsin Derrick Tindal CB 5'11, 175 JR 13.5 5.9% 0.5 0.0 3 5 1 0
Wisconsin Sojourn Shelton CB 5'9, 168 SR 13.0 5.7% 1.0 0.0 1 5 0 1
Wisconsin D'Cota Dixon S 5'10, 197 JR 12.0 5.2% 1.0 1.0 1 2 1 0
Wisconsin Garret Dooley OLB 6'3, 247 JR 10.0 4.4% 1.0 1.0 0 0 0 0
Wisconsin Lubern Figaro S 6'0, 182 JR 9.0 3.9% 0.0 0.0 0 2 0 0
Wisconsin Ryan Connelly ILB 6'3, 235 SO 9.0 3.9% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Wisconsin Alec James DE 6'3, 266 JR 7.5 3.3% 3.0 3.0 0 0 0 0
Wisconsin Vince Biegel OLB 6'4, 245 SR 7.5 3.3% 2.0 1.0 0 0 0 0
Wisconsin Zack Baun OLB 6'3, 231 FR 7.0 3.1% 2.5 0.0 0 0 1 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Ohio State Cameron Johnston 5'11, 198 SR 17 50.1 2 7 9 94.1%
Wisconsin Anthony Lotti 6'0, 186 FR 14 37.5 0 3 5 57.1%
Wisconsin P.J. Rosowski 6'3, 211 SO 8 38.8 0 3 2 62.5%
Team Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Ohio State Tyler Durbin 6'3, 210 SR 46 60.5 16 34.8% 0 2 0 0
Wisconsin P.J. Rosowski 6'3, 211 SO 27 63.7 16 59.3% 0 1 0 0
Wisconsin Andrew Endicott 5'9, 173 SR 1 42.0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0
Team Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Ohio State Tyler Durbin 6'3, 210 SR 35-36 5-5 100.0%
Wisconsin Rafael Gaglianone 5'11, 219 JR 10-10 7-8 87.5%
Wisconsin Andrew Endicott 5'9, 173 SR 4-5 1-1 100.0%
Team Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Ohio State Parris Campbell 6'1, 208 SO 6 34.7 0 0 0 (0)
Ohio State Dontre Wilson 5'10, 195 SR 3 20.7 0 0 0 (0)
Wisconsin Dare Ogunbowale 5'11, 205 SR 6 22.0 0 0 0 (0)
Wisconsin Natrell Jamerson 6'0, 188 JR 3 20.0 0 0 0 (0)
Team Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Ohio State Dontre Wilson 5'10, 195 SR 10 9.6 0 7 1 (0)
Ohio State Demario McCall 5'9, 182 FR 2 -0.5 0 0 0 (0)
Wisconsin Jazz Peavy 6'0, 184 JR 7 5.7 0 5 0 (0)
Wisconsin Ricky Finco 5'8, 188 SO 1 15.0 0 0 0 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics