Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (4-1)
October 15, 2016 (8:00 PM ET, ABC)
Spread: Ohio State -10
S&P+ Projection: Ohio State (29.8 - 16.3)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Ohio State | Wisconsin | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 3 | 25 | ||
| Category | Ohio State offense | Wisconsin defense | Wisconsin offense | Ohio State defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 6.41 (16) | 4.70 (23) | 5.04 (102) | 3.62 (3) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 511.4 (15) | 290.2 (9) | 368.6 (100) | 246.6 (4) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 4.09 (1) | 1.03 (6) | 2.17 (75) | 0.78 (2) |
| Category | Ohio State offense | Wisconsin defense | Wisconsin offense | Ohio State defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 40.3 (11) | 13.8 (6) | 24.2 (100) | 13.9 (7) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 144.6 (3) | 137.8 (9) | 110.9 (43) | 144.4 (4) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 110.7 (46) | 124.7 (15) | 134.3 (13) | 136.8 (5) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 131.2 (2) | 125.6 (11) | 113.0 (32) | 131.0 (6) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 113.7 (48) | 141.5 (11) | 137.1 (18) | 162.9 (6) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 116.4 (42) | 144.2 (9) | 143.3 (8) | 127.4 (19) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 134.9 (11) | 155.8 (7) | 110.8 (53) | 144.8 (9) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 124.3 (22) | 127.2 (16) | 114.2 (37) | 157.3 (2) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 114.4 (36) | 115.7 (25) | 92.6 (100) | 156.9 (3) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Ohio State
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 16 offense vs. No. 100 defense)
- Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 5 defense vs. No. 86 offense)
- Second Down S&P+ (No. 2 defense vs. No. 76 offense)
- Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 6 defense vs. No. 58 offense)
- Q4 S&P+ (No. 3 vs. No. 50 )
Wisconsin
- Third Down S&P+ (No. 2 offense vs. No. 93 defense)
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 32 offense vs. No. 111 defense)
- Third Down S&P+ (No. 2 defense vs. No. 59 offense)
- Adj. Sack Rate (No. 48 offense vs. No. 101 defense)
- Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 12 defense vs. No. 52 offense)
Five Factors
| Category | Ohio State offense | Wisconsin defense | Wisconsin offense | Ohio State defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.21 (94) | 1.18 (31) | 1.14 (115) | 1.16 (20) |
| EFFICIENCY | 54.5% (2) | 34.2% (16) | 40.1% (89) | 32.9% (12) |
| FIELD POSITION | 35.6 (6) | 25.8 (11) | 31.6 (42) | 24.5 (5) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 6.5 (1) | 2.9 (3) | 4.2 (104) | 3.2 (9) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN |
EXPECTED: Ohio State 4.03 (13) Wisconsin 1.90 (44) |
ACTUAL Ohio State 8 (5) Wisconsin 0 (56) |
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Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Ohio State offense | Wisconsin offense |
| Adj. Pace | 7.0 (19) | -1.1 (73) |
| Plays per game | 79.8 (35) | 73.2 (77) |
| Possessions per game | 13.0 (67) | 12.0 (111) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 65.8% (28) | 68.2% (21) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 46.3% (15) | 30.0% (86) |
| % of solo tackles | 73.6% (69) | 67.4% (107) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Ohio State defense | Wisconsin defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 67.1% (16) | 59.9% (61) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 23.7% (122) | 24.7% (118) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 22.1% (7) | 19.9% (21) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 12.8% (19) | 10.1% (53) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 9.2% (11) | 9.5% (9) |
| PD to INC | 42.7% (10) | 41.5% (12) |
When Ohio State has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Ohio State Offense | Wisconsin Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 131.2 | 2 | 125.6 | 11 | |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 62.6 | 1 | 40.1 | 16 | Ohio State |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.06 | 92 | 1.00 | 24 | Wisconsin big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 4.24 | 1 | 2.79 | 51 | Ohio State |
| SD Sack Rate | 1.5% | 16 | 3.2% | 100 | Ohio State big |
Passing Downs
| Ohio State Offense | Wisconsin Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 113.7 | 48 | 141.5 | 11 | Wisconsin |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 31.3 | 58 | 23.6 | 19 | Wisconsin |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 2.05 | 18 | 1.73 | 65 | Ohio State |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 4.19 | 7 | 1.47 | 3 | |
| PD Sack Rate | 5.6% | 39 | 11.9% | 19 | Wisconsin |
When Wisconsin has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Wisconsin Offense | Ohio State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 113.0 | 32 | 131.0 | 6 | Ohio State |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 43.3 | 107 | 39.9 | 14 | Ohio State big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.09 | 84 | 1.00 | 25 | Ohio State big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.08 | 53 | 2.32 | 13 | Ohio State |
| SD Sack Rate | 2.9% | 32 | 2.1% | 111 | Wisconsin big |
Passing Downs
| Wisconsin Offense | Ohio State Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 137.1 | 18 | 162.9 | 6 | Ohio State |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 33.0 | 47 | 19.7 | 8 | Ohio State |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.30 | 125 | 1.73 | 66 | Ohio State big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 1.66 | 128 | 1.29 | 1 | Ohio State big |
| PD Sack Rate | 8.6% | 74 | 6.9% | 70 | |
Individual Passing Stats
| Team | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate |
Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
| Ohio State | J.T. Barrett | 6'2, 222 | JR | 79 | 123 | 981 | 15 | 3 | 64.2% | 3 | 2.4% | 7.7 |
| Ohio State | Joe Burrow | 6'3, 218 | FR | 10 | 13 | 89 | 1 | 0 | 76.9% | 0 | 0.0% | 6.8 |
| Wisconsin | Bart Houston | 6'4, 235 | SR | 44 | 71 | 527 | 2 | 2 | 62.0% | 4 | 5.3% | 6.8 |
| Wisconsin | Alex Hornibrook | 6'4, 219 | FR | 38 | 68 | 466 | 4 | 5 | 55.9% | 4 | 5.6% | 6.2 |
Individual Rushing Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry |
Hlt Yds/ Opp. |
Opp. Rate |
| Ohio State | Mike Weber | RB | 5'10, 212 | FR | 83 | 566 | 4 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 47.0% |
| Ohio State | J.T. Barrett | QB | 6'2, 222 | JR | 67 | 355 | 4 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 46.3% |
| Ohio State | Curtis Samuel | HB | 5'11, 197 | JR | 50 | 410 | 3 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 70.0% |
| Ohio State | Demario McCall | RB | 5'9, 182 | FR | 20 | 144 | 2 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 35.0% |
| Wisconsin | Corey Clement | RB | 5'11, 227 | SR | 82 | 319 | 5 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 25.6% |
| Wisconsin | Dare Ogunbowale | RB | 5'11, 205 | SR | 44 | 185 | 1 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 31.8% |
| Wisconsin | Bradrick Shaw | RB | 6'1, 211 | FR | 24 | 136 | 1 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 54.2% |
| Wisconsin | Taiwan Deal | RB | 6'1, 224 | SO | 20 | 94 | 0 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 45.0% |
| NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. | ||||||||||
Individual Receiving Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch |
Yds/ Target |
Catch Rate |
| Ohio State | Curtis Samuel | HB | 5'11, 197 | JR | 28 | 23 | 345 | 3 | 15.0 | 12.3 | 82.1% |
| Ohio State | Dontre Wilson | WR | 5'10, 195 | SR | 19 | 15 | 189 | 4 | 12.6 | 10.0 | 78.9% |
| Ohio State | Noah Brown | WR | 6'2, 218 | SO | 17 | 12 | 165 | 5 | 13.8 | 9.7 | 70.6% |
| Ohio State | Marcus Baugh | TE | 6'5, 258 | JR | 13 | 6 | 71 | 1 | 11.8 | 5.5 | 46.2% |
| Ohio State | Parris Campbell | WR | 6'1, 208 | SO | 10 | 6 | 57 | 0 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 60.0% |
| Ohio State | Johnnie Dixon | WR | 5'11, 198 | SO | 9 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 55.6% |
| Ohio State | Mike Weber | RB | 5'10, 212 | FR | 8 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 75.0% |
| Wisconsin | Jazz Peavy | WR | 6'0, 184 | JR | 38 | 17 | 281 | 2 | 16.5 | 7.4 | 44.7% |
| Wisconsin | Robert Wheelwright | WR | 6'3, 211 | SR | 28 | 18 | 274 | 0 | 15.2 | 9.8 | 64.3% |
| Wisconsin | Troy Fumagalli | TE | 6'6, 248 | JR | 22 | 16 | 181 | 0 | 11.3 | 8.2 | 72.7% |
| Wisconsin | George Rushing | WR | 6'1, 192 | JR | 9 | 8 | 82 | 0 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 88.9% |
| Wisconsin | Dare Ogunbowale | RB | 5'11, 205 | SR | 9 | 6 | 36 | 1 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 66.7% |
| Wisconsin | Kyle Penniston | TE | 6'4, 236 | FR | 6 | 3 | 35 | 1 | 11.7 | 5.8 | 50.0% |
| Wisconsin | Alec Ingold | FB | 6'2, 238 | SO | 6 | 4 | 21 | 1 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 66.7% |
Individual Defensive Stats
| Team | Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
| Ohio State | Raekwon McMillan | LB | 6'2, 243 | JR | 22.5 | 8.9% | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Ohio State | Jerome Baker | LB | 6'1, 225 | SO | 20.5 | 8.1% | 3.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ohio State | Malik Hooker | S | 6'2, 205 | SO | 20.0 | 7.9% | 1.5 | 0.5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ohio State | Chris Worley | LB | 6'2, 228 | JR | 16.0 | 6.3% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Ohio State | Damon Webb | CB | 5'10, 195 | JR | 15.5 | 6.1% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ohio State | Marshon Lattimore | CB | 6'0, 192 | SO | 13.0 | 5.1% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Ohio State | Tyquan Lewis | DL | 6'4, 266 | JR | 11.0 | 4.3% | 4.5 | 3.0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Ohio State | Robert Landers | DL | 6'1, 285 | FR | 10.5 | 4.1% | 7.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ohio State | Nick Bosa | DE | 6'4, 265 | FR | 10.5 | 4.1% | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ohio State | Dre'Mont Jones | DL | 6'3, 280 | FR | 10.5 | 4.1% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ohio State | Jalyn Holmes | DE | 6'5, 274 | JR | 10.0 | 3.9% | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Ohio State | Sam Hubbard | DE | 6'5, 266 | SO | 9.0 | 3.5% | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ohio State | Gareon Conley | CB | 6'0, 195 | JR | 8.0 | 3.1% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Jack Cichy | ILB | 6'2, 233 | JR | 31.5 | 13.8% | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | T.J. Watt | OLB | 6'5, 243 | JR | 24.0 | 10.5% | 7.5 | 5.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | T.J. Edwards | ILB | 6'1, 244 | SO | 21.0 | 9.2% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Leo Musso | S | 5'10, 194 | SR | 19.0 | 8.3% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Wisconsin | Derrick Tindal | CB | 5'11, 175 | JR | 13.5 | 5.9% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Sojourn Shelton | CB | 5'9, 168 | SR | 13.0 | 5.7% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| Wisconsin | D'Cota Dixon | S | 5'10, 197 | JR | 12.0 | 5.2% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Garret Dooley | OLB | 6'3, 247 | JR | 10.0 | 4.4% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Lubern Figaro | S | 6'0, 182 | JR | 9.0 | 3.9% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Ryan Connelly | ILB | 6'3, 235 | SO | 9.0 | 3.9% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Alec James | DE | 6'3, 266 | JR | 7.5 | 3.3% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Vince Biegel | OLB | 6'4, 245 | SR | 7.5 | 3.3% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Zack Baun | OLB | 6'3, 231 | FR | 7.0 | 3.1% | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. | ||||||||||||
Individual Special Teams Stats
| Team | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
| Ohio State | Cameron Johnston | 5'11, 198 | SR | 17 | 50.1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 94.1% |
| Wisconsin | Anthony Lotti | 6'0, 186 | FR | 14 | 37.5 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 57.1% |
| Wisconsin | P.J. Rosowski | 6'3, 211 | SO | 8 | 38.8 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 62.5% |
| Team | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches |
Onside Att |
Onside Success |
| Ohio State | Tyler Durbin | 6'3, 210 | SR | 46 | 60.5 | 16 | 34.8% | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | P.J. Rosowski | 6'3, 211 | SO | 27 | 63.7 | 16 | 59.3% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | Andrew Endicott | 5'9, 173 | SR | 1 | 42.0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
| Ohio State | Tyler Durbin | 6'3, 210 | SR | 35-36 | 5-5 | 100.0% |
| Wisconsin | Rafael Gaglianone | 5'11, 219 | JR | 10-10 | 7-8 | 87.5% |
| Wisconsin | Andrew Endicott | 5'9, 173 | SR | 4-5 | 1-1 | 100.0% |
| Team | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Ohio State | Parris Campbell | 6'1, 208 | SO | 6 | 34.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Ohio State | Dontre Wilson | 5'10, 195 | SR | 3 | 20.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Wisconsin | Dare Ogunbowale | 5'11, 205 | SR | 6 | 22.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Wisconsin | Natrell Jamerson | 6'0, 188 | JR | 3 | 20.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Team | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Ohio State | Dontre Wilson | 5'10, 195 | SR | 10 | 9.6 | 0 | 7 | 1 (0) |
| Ohio State | Demario McCall | 5'9, 182 | FR | 2 | -0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Wisconsin | Jazz Peavy | 6'0, 184 | JR | 7 | 5.7 | 0 | 5 | 0 (0) |
| Wisconsin | Ricky Finco | 5'8, 188 | SO | 1 | 15.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
Stats via SportSource Analytics