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Northern Illinois 38, UNLV 30
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Northern Illinois | UNLV | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 68 | 87 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 31.2 | 24.7 | 29.6 |
| Possessions | 13 | 13 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
7 | 6 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 5.43 | 5.00 | 4.96 |
| Leverage Rate** | 73.5% | 65.5% | 68.3% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.694 | 0.577 | 0.586 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Northern Illinois | UNLV | |
| Total | 51.1 | 44.2 | |
| Rushing | 19.1 | 16.0 | |
| Passing | 32.0 | 28.2 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Northern Illinois | UNLV | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 45.6% | 41.4% | 41.3% |
| Rushing (close) | 41.0% | 39.5% | 42.9% |
| Passing (close) | 51.7% | 43.2% | 39.6% |
| Standard Downs | 52.0% | 49.1% | 46.8% |
| Passing Downs | 27.8% | 26.7% | 29.5% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Northern Illinois | UNLV | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.65 | 1.23 | 1.28 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.20 | 0.94 | 1.06 |
| Passing (close) | 2.13 | 1.49 | 1.53 |
| Standard Downs | 1.48 | 1.01 | 1.11 |
| Passing Downs | 2.50 | 2.01 | 1.84 |
| Line Stats | Northern Illinois | UNLV | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.21 | 2.85 | 2.82 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 5.9% | 8.3% | 5.8% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 16.7% | 10.0% | 6.5% |
| Turnovers | Northern Illinois | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 0.0 | 2.9 |
| Turnover Margin | Northern Illinois +1 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Northern Illinois +0.81 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Northern Illinois +0.19 | |
| TO Points Margin | Northern Illinois +2.9 points | |
| Situational | Northern Illinois | UNLV |
| Q1 S&P | 0.578 | 0.673 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.559 | 0.510 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.777 | 0.612 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.859 | 0.532 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.723 | 0.617 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.745 | 0.570 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.691 | 0.549 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Northern Illinois by 9.7 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Northern Illinois by 8 | ||
Few coaches won the offseason more than UNLV's Tony Sanchez, a Vegas high school success who got the job, signed a staff with impressive experience, and pulled off an impressive rebrand.
Winning the offseason only matters till the games start, though, and I was curious what UNLV would have to offer. The Rebels eventually succumbed to one of FBS' steadiest mid-majors, but in jumping out to a 17-3 lead, staying close, and getting the ball back with a chance to tie late, they put in an impressive showing.
"Impressive" is relative, mind you. The offensive output was basically average, with Blake Decker still a little all-or-nothing in passing -- over 15 yards per completion, but with a 54% completion rate, a pick, and three sacks -- and passing downs were basically forfeits. And yeah, after the slow start (three points in five possessions, four of which reached UNLV territory), the NIU offense looked awfully effective. Drew Hare completed 21 of 26 passes, Kenny Golladay caught nine passes for 213 yards, and Joel Bouagnon rushed 21 times for 152 yards. That'll do.
Still. Baby steps. UNLV lost to NIU at home by 14 points early last year and lost on the road by eight this year. Both UNLV (improvement!) and NIU (offense!) were given reasons for encouragement.