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Utah 24, Michigan 17: Turnovers tilted a dead-even affair

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Jeff Swinger-USA TODAY Sports

Utah 24, Michigan 17

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Michigan Utah Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 72 70
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 30.9 28.6 29.6
Possessions 11 11
Scoring Opportunities*
6 6
Points Per Opportunity 2.83 2.83 4.96
Leverage Rate** 70.8% 72.9% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.548 0.544 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Michigan Utah
Total 32.2 31.3
Rushing 6.4 12.2
Passing 25.8 19.1
Success Rate (what's this?) Michigan Utah Nat'l Avg
All (close) 41.7% 40.0% 41.3%
Rushing (close) 31.0% 36.1% 42.9%
Passing (close) 48.8% 44.1% 39.6%
Standard Downs 45.1% 51.0% 46.8%
Passing Downs 33.3% 10.5% 29.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Michigan Utah Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.07 1.12 1.28
Rushing (close) 0.71 0.94 1.06
Passing (close) 1.23 1.28 1.53
Standard Downs 0.81 0.95 1.11
Passing Downs 1.95 3.37 1.84
Line Stats Michigan Utah Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.38 2.74 2.82
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 5.8%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 7.1% 6.5%
Turnovers Michigan Utah
Turnovers 3 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 16.9 3.1
Turnover Margin Utah +2
Exp. TO Margin Michigan +0.07
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Utah +2.07
TO Points Margin Utah +13.8 points
Situational Michigan Utah
Q1 S&P 0.674 0.514
Q2 S&P 0.409 0.507
Q3 S&P 0.604 0.812
Q4 S&P 0.633 0.492
1st Down S&P 0.568 0.535
2nd Down S&P 0.600 0.523
3rd Down S&P 0.536 0.612
Projected Scoring Margin: Utah by 13.0
Actual Scoring Margin: Utah by 7

As with Stanford-Northwestern, I haven't spent much time acknowledging the winner of this game. Sorry about that.

There were some damn even games this week, weren't there? In terms of opportunities/conversion, efficiency, explosiveness, etc., this was an almost completely even game. But Utah had a pick six, and Michigan did not.

Aside from Jake Rudock's arm, I think as or more highly of each of these teams than I did when the game began. That's as good as a win, right, Michigan?