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Auburn 31, Louisville 24
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Auburn | Louisville | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 62 | 81 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 86.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 30.6 | 29.1 | 29.6 |
| Possessions | 10 | 11 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
5 | 7 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 4.80 | 3.43 | 4.96 |
| Leverage Rate** | 75.8% | 63.9% | 68.3% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.607 | 0.545 | 0.586 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Auburn | Louisville | |
| Total | 30.0 | 38.2 | |
| Rushing | 17.0 | 24.8 | |
| Passing | 13.0 | 13.4 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Auburn | Louisville | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 53.2% | 42.6% | 41.3% |
| Rushing (close) | 58.5% | 50.0% | 42.9% |
| Passing (close) | 42.9% | 35.5% | 39.6% |
| Standard Downs | 59.6% | 43.6% | 46.8% |
| Passing Downs | 33.3% | 40.9% | 29.5% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Auburn | Louisville | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.91 | 1.02 | 1.28 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.71 | 1.07 | 1.06 |
| Passing (close) | 1.44 | 0.96 | 1.53 |
| Standard Downs | 0.72 | 0.94 | 1.11 |
| Passing Downs | 1.96 | 1.18 | 1.84 |
| Line Stats | Auburn | Louisville | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.55 | 3.47 | 2.82 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 15.8% | 5.8% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 8.3% | 6.5% |
| Turnovers | Auburn | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 3 | 2 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 8.2 | 16.9 |
| Turnover Margin | Louisville +1 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Auburn +0.43 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Louisville +1.43 | |
| TO Points Margin | Auburn +8.7 points | |
| Situational | Auburn | Louisville |
| Q1 S&P | 0.611 | 0.484 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.565 | 0.511 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.711 | 0.613 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.536 | 0.723 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.582 | 0.622 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.626 | 0.547 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.676 | 0.628 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Auburn by 0.4 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Auburn by 7 | ||
Louisville's offense outgained Auburn's in terms of both yards and EqPts, but mistakes were deadly. Auburn turned the ball over three times, but two were of the armpunt variety. Louisville, meanwhile, committed two turnovers, but one was returned for a touchdown. That turned the tables.
Some other notes:
- Auburn was all-efficiency on the ground and all-explosiveness through the air. (Losing two running backs to injury probably didn't help the ground numbers, huh?)
- Louisville's got an interesting quarterback situation to navigate. Reggie Bonnafon was a better passer than Lamar Jackson, but he took more sacks, and Jackson's rushing was key to the Cardinals' near-comeback. (And his dumb interception on the first play of the game was key to Auburn building a lead.)
- Auburn's rebuilt pass rush certainly looks the part so far.
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