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Auburn 31, Louisville 24: Cardinals' mistakes were costlier

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John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Auburn 31, Louisville 24

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Auburn Louisville Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 62 81
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 86.0%
Avg Starting FP 30.6 29.1 29.6
Possessions 10 11
Scoring Opportunities*
5 7
Points Per Opportunity 4.80 3.43 4.96
Leverage Rate** 75.8% 63.9% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.607 0.545 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Auburn Louisville
Total 30.0 38.2
Rushing 17.0 24.8
Passing 13.0 13.4
Success Rate (what's this?) Auburn Louisville Nat'l Avg
All (close) 53.2% 42.6% 41.3%
Rushing (close) 58.5% 50.0% 42.9%
Passing (close) 42.9% 35.5% 39.6%
Standard Downs 59.6% 43.6% 46.8%
Passing Downs 33.3% 40.9% 29.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Auburn Louisville Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.91 1.02 1.28
Rushing (close) 0.71 1.07 1.06
Passing (close) 1.44 0.96 1.53
Standard Downs 0.72 0.94 1.11
Passing Downs 1.96 1.18 1.84
Line Stats Auburn Louisville Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.55 3.47 2.82
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 15.8% 5.8%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 8.3% 6.5%
Turnovers Auburn Louisville
Turnovers 3 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 8.2 16.9
Turnover Margin Louisville +1
Exp. TO Margin Auburn +0.43
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Louisville +1.43
TO Points Margin Auburn +8.7 points
Situational Auburn Louisville
Q1 S&P 0.611 0.484
Q2 S&P 0.565 0.511
Q3 S&P 0.711 0.613
Q4 S&P 0.536 0.723
1st Down S&P 0.582 0.622
2nd Down S&P 0.626 0.547
3rd Down S&P 0.676 0.628
Projected Scoring Margin: Auburn by 0.4
Actual Scoring Margin: Auburn by 7

Louisville's offense outgained Auburn's in terms of both yards and EqPts, but mistakes were deadly. Auburn turned the ball over three times, but two were of the armpunt variety. Louisville, meanwhile, committed two turnovers, but one was returned for a touchdown. That turned the tables.

Some other notes:

  • Auburn was all-efficiency on the ground and all-explosiveness through the air. (Losing two running backs to injury probably didn't help the ground numbers, huh?)
  • Louisville's got an interesting quarterback situation to navigate. Reggie Bonnafon was a better passer than Lamar Jackson, but he took more sacks, and Jackson's rushing was key to the Cardinals' near-comeback. (And his dumb interception on the first play of the game was key to Auburn building a lead.)
  • Auburn's rebuilt pass rush certainly looks the part so far.