Tennessee 59, Bowling Green 30
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|Basics||Bowling Green||Tennessee||Nat'l Avg|
|Close Rate (non-garbage time)||79.7%|
|Avg Starting FP||20.9||39.7||29.6|
|Points Per Opportunity||3.75||5.36||4.96|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
|EqPts (what's this?)||Bowling Green||Tennessee|
|Success Rate (what's this?)||Bowling Green||Tennessee||Nat'l Avg|
|IsoPPP (what's this?)||Bowling Green||Tennessee||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Stats||Bowling Green||Tennessee||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Yards/Carry (what's this?)||3.30||3.91||2.82|
|Std. Downs Sack Rt.||0.0%||8.3%||5.8%|
|Pass. Downs Sack Rt.||14.3%||0.0%||6.5%|
|Turnover Points (what's this?)||5.5||0.0|
|Turnover Margin||Tennessee +1|
|Exp. TO Margin||Tennessee +2.05|
|TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin)||Bowling Green +1.05|
|TO Points Margin||Tennessee +5.5 points|
|1st Down S&P||0.620||0.705|
|2nd Down S&P||0.668||0.640|
|3rd Down S&P||0.596||0.712|
|Projected Scoring Margin: Tennessee by 11.9|
|Actual Scoring Margin: Tennessee by 29|
I was thrown off by this result at first until I remember that a) BGSU had Matt Johnson back (he missed almost all of last season with injury and is quite good), and b) Tennessee's secondary had quite a bit going against it. The DBs coach was suspended, one safety was lost for the season, another was hobbling. That's a recipe for points and yards, and Bowling Green delivered.
Fortunately for the Vols, their offense also got the ball. 11 scoring opportunities in 15 possessions (and a high conversation rate among those opps) is going to win you most games.