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Tennessee 59, Bowling Green 30
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Bowling Green | Tennessee | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 85 | 87 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 79.7% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 20.9 | 39.7 | 29.6 |
| Possessions | 15 | 15 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
8 | 11 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 3.75 | 5.36 | 4.96 |
| Leverage Rate** | 62.5% | 70.8% | 68.3% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.639 | 0.688 | 0.586 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Bowling Green | Tennessee | |
| Total | 53.0 | 59.5 | |
| Rushing | 14.4 | 40.1 | |
| Passing | 38.6 | 19.4 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Bowling Green | Tennessee | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 38.9% | 52.3% | 41.3% |
| Rushing (close) | 42.3% | 53.5% | 42.9% |
| Passing (close) | 37.0% | 50.0% | 39.6% |
| Standard Downs | 55.6% | 50.0% | 46.8% |
| Passing Downs | 11.1% | 57.9% | 29.5% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Bowling Green | Tennessee | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.64 | 1.35 | 1.28 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.29 | 1.18 | 1.06 |
| Passing (close) | 1.87 | 1.70 | 1.53 |
| Standard Downs | 1.58 | 1.16 | 1.11 |
| Passing Downs | 2.12 | 1.74 | 1.84 |
| Line Stats | Bowling Green | Tennessee | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.30 | 3.91 | 2.82 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 8.3% | 5.8% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 14.3% | 0.0% | 6.5% |
| Turnovers | Bowling Green | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 5.5 | 0.0 |
| Turnover Margin | Tennessee +1 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Tennessee +2.05 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Bowling Green +1.05 | |
| TO Points Margin | Tennessee +5.5 points | |
| Situational | Bowling Green | Tennessee |
| Q1 S&P | 0.674 | 0.759 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.599 | 0.642 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.697 | 0.970 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.591 | 0.704 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.620 | 0.705 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.668 | 0.640 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.596 | 0.712 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Tennessee by 11.9 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Tennessee by 29 | ||
I was thrown off by this result at first until I remember that a) BGSU had Matt Johnson back (he missed almost all of last season with injury and is quite good), and b) Tennessee's secondary had quite a bit going against it. The DBs coach was suspended, one safety was lost for the season, another was hobbling. That's a recipe for points and yards, and Bowling Green delivered.
Fortunately for the Vols, their offense also got the ball. 11 scoring opportunities in 15 possessions (and a high conversation rate among those opps) is going to win you most games.