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Tennessee 59, Bowling Green 30: Luckily, the Vols' offense also got the ball

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Tennessee 59, Bowling Green 30

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Basics Bowling Green Tennessee Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 85 87
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 79.7%
Avg Starting FP 20.9 39.7 29.6
Possessions 15 15
Scoring Opportunities*
8 11
Points Per Opportunity 3.75 5.36 4.96
Leverage Rate** 62.5% 70.8% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.639 0.688 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Bowling Green Tennessee
Total 53.0 59.5
Rushing 14.4 40.1
Passing 38.6 19.4
Success Rate (what's this?) Bowling Green Tennessee Nat'l Avg
All (close) 38.9% 52.3% 41.3%
Rushing (close) 42.3% 53.5% 42.9%
Passing (close) 37.0% 50.0% 39.6%
Standard Downs 55.6% 50.0% 46.8%
Passing Downs 11.1% 57.9% 29.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Bowling Green Tennessee Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.64 1.35 1.28
Rushing (close) 1.29 1.18 1.06
Passing (close) 1.87 1.70 1.53
Standard Downs 1.58 1.16 1.11
Passing Downs 2.12 1.74 1.84
Line Stats Bowling Green Tennessee Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.30 3.91 2.82
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 8.3% 5.8%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 14.3% 0.0% 6.5%
Turnovers Bowling Green Tennessee
Turnovers 1 0
Turnover Points (what's this?) 5.5 0.0
Turnover Margin Tennessee +1
Exp. TO Margin Tennessee +2.05
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Bowling Green +1.05
TO Points Margin Tennessee +5.5 points
Situational Bowling Green Tennessee
Q1 S&P 0.674 0.759
Q2 S&P 0.599 0.642
Q3 S&P 0.697 0.970
Q4 S&P 0.591 0.704
1st Down S&P 0.620 0.705
2nd Down S&P 0.668 0.640
3rd Down S&P 0.596 0.712
Projected Scoring Margin: Tennessee by 11.9
Actual Scoring Margin: Tennessee by 29

I was thrown off by this result at first until I remember that a) BGSU had Matt Johnson back (he missed almost all of last season with injury and is quite good), and b) Tennessee's secondary had quite a bit going against it. The DBs coach was suspended, one safety was lost for the season, another was hobbling. That's a recipe for points and yards, and Bowling Green delivered.

Fortunately for the Vols, their offense also got the ball. 11 scoring opportunities in 15 possessions (and a high conversation rate among those opps) is going to win you most games.