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BYU 33, Nebraska 28: A dead-even game decided by chaos

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Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports

BYU 33, Nebraska 28

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics BYU Nebraska Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 72 78
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 29.9 28.7 29.6
Possessions 14 14
Scoring Opportunities*
7 6
Points Per Opportunity 4.86 4.67 4.96
Leverage Rate** 66.7% 62.8% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.641 0.590 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) BYU Nebraska
Total 46.2 41.5
Rushing 12.4 13.8
Passing 33.8 27.7
Success Rate (what's this?) BYU Nebraska Nat'l Avg
All (close) 41.7% 42.3% 41.3%
Rushing (close) 47.8% 35.3% 42.9%
Passing (close) 38.8% 47.7% 39.6%
Standard Downs 47.9% 42.9% 46.8%
Passing Downs 29.2% 41.4% 29.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) BYU Nebraska Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.54 1.26 1.28
Rushing (close) 1.13 1.15 1.06
Passing (close) 1.78 1.32 1.53
Standard Downs 1.43 1.12 1.11
Passing Downs 1.89 1.49 1.84
Line Stats BYU Nebraska Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.72 2.81 2.82
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 6.7% 5.3% 5.8%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 5.3% 8.0% 6.5%
Turnovers BYU Nebraska
Turnovers 1 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 6.0 6.6
Turnover Margin BYU +1
Exp. TO Margin Nebraska +0.15
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) BYU +1.15
TO Points Margin BYU +0.7 points
Situational BYU Nebraska
Q1 S&P 0.658 0.732
Q2 S&P 0.705 0.405
Q3 S&P 0.593 0.668
Q4 S&P 0.704 0.531
1st Down S&P 0.661 0.536
2nd Down S&P 0.599 0.551
3rd Down S&P 0.630 0.653
Projected Scoring Margin: BYU by 5.4
Actual Scoring Margin: BYU by 5

The hug of the ref is one of the greatest things I've ever seen.

I love it when the projected and actual scoring margins match up so cleanly ... especially considering all the on-the-field chaos it took for the clean tables to form.

Man oh man, was this an even game. Best of Week 1.