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Alabama 35, Wisconsin 17: Tide eased ahead, then hit the gas

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Alabama 35, Wisconsin 17

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Basics Alabama Wisconsin Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 66 60
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 74.6%
Avg Starting FP 30.8 29.4 29.6
Possessions 12 12
Scoring Opportunities*
8 4
Points Per Opportunity 4.38 4.25 4.96
Leverage Rate** 71.7% 66.7% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.719 0.495 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Alabama Wisconsin
Total 47.4 25.0
Rushing 25.7 5.2
Passing 21.7 19.8
Success Rate (what's this?) Alabama Wisconsin Nat'l Avg
All (close) 50.0% 31.3% 41.3%
Rushing (close) 56.5% 13.3% 42.9%
Passing (close) 43.5% 39.4% 39.6%
Standard Downs 60.6% 31.3% 46.8%
Passing Downs 23.1% 31.3% 29.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Alabama Wisconsin Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.59 1.23 1.28
Rushing (close) 1.47 1.31 1.06
Passing (close) 1.76 1.21 1.53
Standard Downs 1.30 1.28 1.11
Passing Downs 3.56 1.13 1.84
Line Stats Alabama Wisconsin Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 4.08 2.07 2.82
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 5.9% 5.8%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 22.2% 6.3% 6.5%
Turnovers Alabama Wisconsin
Turnovers 0 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 5.2
Turnover Margin Alabama +1
Exp. TO Margin Alabama +1.1
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Wisconsin +0.1
TO Points Margin Alabama +5.2 points
Situational Alabama Wisconsin
Q1 S&P 0.541 0.464
Q2 S&P 0.747 0.655
Q3 S&P 0.889 0.323
Q4 S&P 0.590 0.596
1st Down S&P 0.660 0.451
2nd Down S&P 0.667 0.555
3rd Down S&P 0.648 0.504
Projected Scoring Margin: Alabama by 27.6
Actual Scoring Margin: Alabama by 18

Alabama's per-quarter S&P advantages: +0.077 in Q1, +0.092 in Q2, +0.566 in Q3. The Tide eased ahead and laid the hammer down. In fact, considering turnovers and everything else, it probably should have been worse than 18 points. But Wisconsin's epic first-half field position advantage and a couple of second-half missed field goals by Adam Griffith kept it respectable.