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In under two hours, the 2015 FBS season will officially kick off in Charlotte and Orlando.
You already knew that, but I wanted to just see it typed out. We made it!
Below you'll find all the Week 1 F/+ picks you can stomach. Some notes about this year's picks:
- When I made changes to S&P+ last winter, one of the main goals was to create much more sound win probability numbers. They're strapped to a bell curve now instead of simply pasted together with previous data in Excel. That should make things a lot more palatable.
- The more I thought about it, the more I realized that win probabilities were the most important piece of data to me -- your record against the spread can be pretty sporadic (in simulating 2005-14, these picks ended up falling anywhere between 49% and 55%), and your straight-up record can depend in part on how many competitive games there are in a given year: if every game is Eastern Michigan-Ohio State, you should nail well over 90+% of your straight-up picks; if every game is Alabama-Ohio State, you'll be lucky to nail 50% of your picks. If the win probabilities are properly lined up with reality, then I feel pretty comfortable with where the ratings are at as a whole.
- (As I may have written before, the primary purpose of these picks is to simply demonstrate the general quality of my ratings as a whole. I don't use them to gamble, and if you do ... well, good luck with that. My goal is to show that these are perfectly acceptable ratings, then use them to dive into rushing, passing, standard downs, passing downs, etc., in my writing.)
- That said, the F/+ picks should still usually hit the same 52-53% mark as usual. Anything more than that is a bonus, but anything less is a little bit disappointing.
Thanks to payout games, we've got a loaded damn slate of games this week: 87 in all. But only 39 pit two FBS teams against each other. That leaves a whopping 48 FBS vs. FCS affairs. As I wrote yesterday, scheduling today is as good as it's ever been, but there's no question that most teams use one of their 12 games as an exhibition of sorts. (Of course, games like South Dakota State-Kansas, Fordham-Army, and Villanova-UConn are more tossup than exhibition.)
Alright, enough jibber jabber. Here we go.
Thursday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 6:00 PM | ESPN | North Carolina vs. South Carolina | -3 | South Carolina (38.6-33.6) | 5.0 | 61.4% | South Carolina |
| 6:00 PM | CBSSN | Florida International at Central Florida | -13 | Central Florida (23.8-12.9) | 10.9 | 73.6% | Florida International |
| 7:00 PM | ESPNU | Oklahoma State at Central Michigan | +24 | Oklahoma State (32.1-21.6) | 10.5 | 72.8% | Central Michigan |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Stony Brook at Toledo | Toledo (40.5-23.4) | 17.1 | 83.9% | ||
| 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | VMI at Ball State | Ball State (38.9-20.7) | 18.2 | 85.4% | ||
| 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Elon at Wake Forest | Wake Forest (26.4-12.2) | 14.2 | 79.5% | ||
| 7:30 PM | ESPN3 | Alcorn State at Georgia Tech | Georgia Tech (47.0-19.4) | 27.6 | 94.5% | ||
| 7:30 PM | ESPN3 | Villanova at Connecticut | Connecticut (25.0-20.9) | 4.1 | 59.4% | ||
| 8:00 PM | SECN | Western Kentucky at Vanderbilt | +3 | Western Kentucky (34.2-31.6) | 2.6 | 55.9% | Vanderbilt |
| 8:30 PM | FS1 | Michigan at Utah | -6 | Utah (22.9-20.9) | 2.0 | 54.6% | Michigan |
| 9:00 PM | ESPN3 | Ohio at Idaho | +7 | Ohio (32.2-28.0) | 4.2 | 59.6% | Idaho |
| 9:00 PM | Southern Utah at Utah State | Utah State (36.2-16.2) | 20.0 | 87.6% | |||
| 9:00 PM | ESPN | TCU at Minnesota | +17 | TCU (31.8-22.8) | 9.0 | 69.8% | Minnesota |
| 9:30 PM | CBSSN | Duke at Tulane | +7 | Duke (26.9-19.5) | 7.5 | 66.7% | Duke |
| 10:00 PM | MWC Video | Abilene Christian at Fresno State | Fresno State (33.8-23.9) | 9.9 | 71.7% | ||
| 10:00 PM | MWC Video | UC Davis at Nevada | Nevada (38.2-20.8) | 17.4 | 84.3% | ||
| 10:00 PM | New Hampshire at San Jose State | San Jose State (31.6-25.0) | 6.6 | 64.8% | |||
| 10:00 PM | Pac-12 | UTSA at Arizona | -32 | Arizona (34.2-9.3) | 24.9 | 92.5% | UTSA |
| 1:00 AM | CBSSN | Colorado at Hawaii | +7.5 | Colorado (32.0-28.1) | 3.9 | 58.9% | Hawaii |
Friday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 3:30 PM | ESPNU | Charlotte at Georgia State | -8 | Georgia State (38.8-37.2) | 1.6 | 53.6% | Charlotte |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN | Baylor at SMU | +36 | Baylor (42.3-16.5) | 25.9 | 93.3% | SMU |
| 7:00 PM | CBSSN | Fordham at Army | Army (31.2-31.0) | 0.2 | 50.5% | ||
| 7:00 PM | ESPNU | Michigan State at Western Michigan | +17 | Michigan State (40.2-26.1) | 14.0 | 79.1% | Western Michigan |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Rhode Island at Syracuse | Syracuse (33.8-18.1) | 15.7 | 81.8% | ||
| 8:00 PM | Pac-12 | Weber State at Oregon State | Oregon State (38.3-24.0) | 14.3 | 79.6% | ||
| 9:00 PM | BTN | Kent State at Illinois | -14.5 | Illinois (28.4-22.8) | 5.7 | 62.8% | Kent State |
| 10:15 PM | ESPN | Washington at Boise State | -12 | Boise State (35.1-21.8) | 13.4 | 78.0% | Boise State |
Saturday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 12:00 PM | CBSSN | Colgate at Navy | Navy (40.3-22.1) | 18.2 | 85.4% | ||
| 12:00 PM | BTN | Illinois State at Iowa | Iowa (34.5-19.9) | 14.6 | 80.0% | ||
| 12:00 PM | ESPNN | Norfolk State at Rutgers | Rutgers (38.8-22.1) | 16.7 | 83.3% | ||
| 12:00 PM | SECN | UL-Monroe at Georgia | -36 | Georgia (39.3-12.5) | 26.8 | 93.9% | UL-Monroe |
| 12:00 PM | ESPNU | Richmond at Maryland | Maryland (33.9-20.0) | 13.9 | 79.0% | ||
| 12:00 PM | FSN affiliates | South Dakota State at Kansas | Kansas (27.2-24.9) | 2.3 | 55.2% | ||
| 12:00 PM | ESPN | Stanford at Northwestern | +12 | Stanford (26.5-16.7) | 9.9 | 71.6% | Northwestern |
| 12:00 PM | SECN | UT Martin at Ole Miss | Ole Miss (40.6-7.9) | 32.7 | 97.0% | ||
| 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | Wofford at Clemson | Clemson (35.6-8.8) | 26.8 | 93.9% | ||
| 1:00 PM | ESPN3 | Maine at Boston College | Boston College (34.7-16.3) | 18.4 | 85.6% | ||
| 1:00 PM | ESPN3 | Youngstown State at Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh (41.5-22.0) | 19.5 | 87.1% | ||
| 2:00 PM | Pac-12 | Portland State at Washington State | Washington State (41.0-23.2) | 17.8 | 84.8% | ||
| 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Albany at Buffalo | Buffalo (34.5-29.1) | 5.4 | 62.2% | ||
| 3:30 PM | ABC | BYU at Nebraska | -7 | Nebraska (32.3-28.2) | 4.1 | 59.4% | BYU |
| 3:30 PM | CBSSN | Florida Atlantic at Tulsa | -7 | Tulsa (35.8-32.3) | 3.5 | 58.0% | Florida Atlantic |
| 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Howard at Appalachian State | Appalachian State (36.9-20.1) | 16.8 | 83.5% | ||
| 3:30 PM | CBSSN | Louisville vs. Auburn | -11 | Auburn (28.6-22.9) | 5.8 | 63.0% | Louisville |
| 3:30 PM | RSRM | Morgan State at Air Force | Air Force (36.6-23.1) | 13.5 | 78.2% | ||
| 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Old Dominion at Eastern Michigan | +4.5 | Old Dominion (38.5-30.0) | 8.5 | 68.8% | Old Dominion |
| 3:30 PM | ESPN | Penn State at Temple | +7 | Penn State (13.1-9.9) | 3.2 | 57.4% | Temple |
| 3:30 PM | FSN affiliates | Sam Houston at Texas Tech | Texas Tech (43.3-27.1) | 16.2 | 82.5% | ||
| 3:30 PM | ESPNU | UTEP at Arkansas | -33 | Arkansas (39.3-15.5) | 23.8 | 91.5% | UTEP |
| 3:30 PM | Fox | Virginia at UCLA | -19.5 | UCLA (34.4-19.8) | 14.7 | 80.2% | Virginia |
| 3:30 PM | CSCA | Wagner at Rice | Rice (35.4-25.4) | 10.0 | 71.7% | ||
| 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Presbyterian at Miami-OH | Miami-OH (29.8-25.1) | 4.7 | 60.7% | ||
| 4:00 PM | SECN | Bowling Green at Tennessee | -21.5 | Tennessee (37.9-21.2) | 16.7 | 83.3% | Bowling Green |
| 4:00 PM | North Dakota at Wyoming | Wyoming (34.5-25.4) | 9.1 | 70.0% | |||
| 4:00 PM | MWC Video | Savannah State at Colorado State | Colorado State (45.3-18.8) | 26.5 | 93.7% | ||
| 4:00 PM | SECN | SEMO at Missouri | Missouri (40.0-11.7) | 28.3 | 94.9% | ||
| 4:00 PM | ESPNN | Southern Illinois at Indiana | Indiana (34.6-24.9) | 9.7 | 71.3% | ||
| 5:00 PM | Pac-12 | Grambling State at California | California (43.3-23.8) | 19.4 | 86.9% | ||
| 6:00 PM | ESPN3 | Bethune-Cookman at Miami-FL | Miami-FL (39.2-16.0) | 23.2 | 91.0% | ||
| 6:00 PM | ESPN3 | Towson at East Carolina | East Carolina (39.7-20.3) | 19.4 | 86.9% | ||
| 6:00 PM | ESPN3 | Troy at NC State | -26 | NC State (41.3-22.6) | 18.8 | 86.1% | Troy |
| 6:00 PM | ESPN3 | Gardner-Webb at South Alabama | South Alabama (30.4-19.7) | 10.7 | 73.1% | ||
| 7:00 PM | FSN PPV | Akron at Oklahoma | -31.5 | Oklahoma (40.1-14.7) | 25.4 | 92.9% | Akron |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Alabama A&M at Cincinnati | Cincinnati (46.8-16.9) | 30.0 | 95.8% | ||
| 7:00 PM | ESPN | Arizona State vs. Texas A&M | -3.5 | Arizona State (32.8-31.9) | 0.8 | 51.9% | Arizona State |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Florida A&M at South Florida | South Florida (30.4-19.4) | 11.0 | 73.7% | ||
| 7:00 PM | $CSLive | Jackson State at Middle Tennessee | Middle Tennessee (42.8-19.4) | 23.4 | 91.2% | ||
| 7:00 PM | Miss. Valley St. at New Mexico | New Mexico (43.1-25.0) | 18.1 | 85.2% | |||
| 7:00 PM | ASN | Southern U. at Louisiana Tech | Louisiana Tech (37.3-18.0) | 19.3 | 86.8% | ||
| 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Missouri State at Memphis | Memphis (34.0-19.9) | 14.0 | 79.2% | ||
| 7:00 PM | ESPNU | UL-Lafayette at Kentucky | -17 | Kentucky (32.9-26.1) | 6.8 | 65.2% | UL-Lafayette |
| 7:10 PM | $ Video | South Dakota at Kansas State | Kansas State (43.0-17.9) | 25.0 | 92.6% | ||
| 7:30 PM | FSN affiliates | Georgia Southern at West Virginia | -19.5 | West Virginia (34.6-26.7) | 7.9 | 67.6% | Georgia Southern |
| 7:30 PM | SECN | McNeese State at LSU | LSU (40.9-11.1) | 29.8 | 95.7% | ||
| 7:30 PM | CBSSN | UNLV at Northern Illinois | -23 | Northern Illinois (37.8-23.2) | 14.6 | 80.1% | UNLV |
| 7:30 PM | SECN | New Mexico State at Florida | -37 | Florida (33.1-12.3) | 20.8 | 88.5% | New Mexico State |
| 7:30 PM | NBC | Texas at Notre Dame | -10 | Notre Dame (29.3-18.7) | 10.6 | 73.0% | Notre Dame |
| 8:00 PM | Pac-12 | Eastern Washington at Oregon | Oregon (49.7-17.4) | 32.2 | 96.9% | ||
| 8:00 PM | cable IA | Northern Iowa at Iowa State | Iowa State (36.1-27.4) | 8.7 | 69.3% | ||
| 8:00 PM | MWC Video | San Diego at San Diego State | San Diego State (36.7-17.5) | 19.2 | 86.6% | ||
| 8:00 PM | ESPNN | Texas State at Florida State | -29 | Florida State (43.9-19.7) | 24.1 | 91.9% | Texas State |
| 8:00 PM | ESPN3 | Tennessee Tech at Houston | Houston (33.5-18.7) | 14.8 | 80.4% | ||
| 8:00 PM | ABC | Wisconsin at Alabama | -12 | Alabama (32.3-20.2) | 12.1 | 75.7% | Alabama |
| 10:00 PM | FS1 | Mississippi State at Southern Miss | +21 | Mississippi State (40.6-21.1) | 19.5 | 87.0% | Southern Miss |
| 11:00 PM | Pac-12 | Arkansas State at USC | -27 | USC (41.8-24.9) | 17.0 | 83.6% | Arkansas State |
Sunday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 3:00 PM | FS1 | Purdue at Marshall | -7.5 | Marshall (35.5-25.1) | 10.4 | 72.6% | Marshall |
Monday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 8:00 PM | ESPN | Ohio State at Virginia Tech | +14 | Ohio State (30.7-20.3) | 10.4 | 72.5% | Virginia Tech |
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