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UCLA 56, Arizona 30: When an opponent hands you the game, take it

Casey Sapio-USA TODAY Sports

uclaUAwp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Name

Down-Distance-Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team WP Before Play

Home Team WP Added

1

27

Arizona

1-10-64

1

Team Team Rush for -20, FUMBLE

0.595

-0.198

2

63

Arizona

1-10-65

2

Anu Solomon Rush for -5, FUMBLE

0.184

-0.091

3

21

UCLA

2-11-35

1

Josh Rosen Pass to Thomas Duarte for 35, TOUCHDOWN

0.680

-0.087

4

8

Arizona

3-9-49

1

Anu Solomon Pass to Cayleb Jones for 12, FIRST DOWN

0.571

0.084

5

13

Arizona

1-65-65

1

PENALTY

0.630

0.083

UCLA 56, Arizona 30

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Arizona UCLA Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 87 75
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 54.3%
Avg Starting FP 29.7 34.0 29.5
Possessions 13 13
Scoring Opportunities*
8 8
Points Per Opportunity 3.88 7.00 4.82
Leverage Rate** 76.3% 74.0% 68.5%
Close S&P*** 0.642 0.729 0.588
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Arizona UCLA
Total 46.4 49.1
Rushing 34.6 22.7
Passing 11.9 26.3
Success Rate (what's this?) Arizona UCLA Nat'l Avg
All (close) 52.6% 52.0% 41.9%
Rushing (close) 72.7% 50.0% 42.8%
Passing (close) 25.0% 54.6% 40.9%
Standard Downs 48.3% 46.0% 47.3%
Passing Downs 66.7% 69.2% 30.2%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Arizona UCLA Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.10 1.56 1.27
Rushing (close) 0.94 1.10 1.06
Passing (close) 1.76 2.11 1.49
Standard Downs 0.99 1.11 1.11
Passing Downs 1.38 2.42 1.80
Line Stats Arizona UCLA Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.32 3.39 2.84
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 10.0% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 6.8%
Turnovers Arizona UCLA
Turnovers 3 0
Turnover Points (what's this?) 13.7 0.0
Turnover Margin UCLA +3
Exp. TO Margin UCLA +2.63
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) UCLA +0.37
TO Points Margin UCLA +13.7 points
Situational Arizona UCLA
Q1 S&P 0.602 0.703
Q2 S&P 0.712 0.758
Q3 S&P 0.536 0.519
Q4 S&P 0.659 0.604
1st Down S&P 0.655 0.588
2nd Down S&P 0.623 0.461
3rd Down S&P 0.623 0.729
Projected Scoring Margin: UCLA by 16.3
Actual Scoring Margin: UCLA by 26

This risks falling into that "They didn't beat us, we beat ourselves!" quicksand, but UCLA was good enough to take advantage of Arizona's mistakes ... and Arizona made a TON of mistakes. The Wildcats blew opportunities and handed UCLA points via turnover. And UCLA, to its infinite credit, took complete and total advantage: eight scoring opportunities, eight touchdowns.