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You had it, Arkansas. And then you didn't.
Top 5 Plays
|
|
Play Number |
Name |
Down-Distance-Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team WP Before Play |
Home Team WP Added |
|
1 |
143 |
Texas A&M |
2-2-2 |
4 |
Tra Carson Rush for 2, TOUCHDOWN |
0.758 |
-0.279 |
|
2 |
158 |
Texas A&M |
2-5-20 |
5 |
Kyle Allen Pass to Christian Kirk for 20, TOUCHDOWN |
0.603 |
-0.277 |
|
3 |
156 |
Texas A&M |
3-4-21 |
4 |
FIELD_GOAL |
0.340 |
0.263 |
|
4 |
150 |
Arkansas |
2-10-54 |
4 |
Brandon Allen Rush for -5, FUMBLE |
0.597 |
-0.251 |
|
5 |
50 |
Texas A&M |
1-10-64 |
2 |
Kyle Allen Pass to Christian Kirk for 57, FIRST DOWN |
0.449 |
-0.140 |
Texas A&M 28, Arkansas 21
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Arkansas | Texas A&M | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 67 | 48 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 19.8 | 24.0 | 29.5 |
| Possessions | 9 | 10 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
4 | 6 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 5.25 | 3.33 | 4.82 |
| Leverage Rate** | 76.1% | 77.1% | 68.5% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.672 | 0.718 | 0.588 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Arkansas | Texas A&M | |
| Total | 41.4 | 38.5 | |
| Rushing | 20.3 | 7.6 | |
| Passing | 21.1 | 30.9 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Arkansas | Texas A&M | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 56.7% | 47.9% | 41.9% |
| Rushing (close) | 65.0% | 44.4% | 42.8% |
| Passing (close) | 44.4% | 50.0% | 40.9% |
| Standard Downs | 66.7% | 56.8% | 47.3% |
| Passing Downs | 25.0% | 18.2% | 30.2% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Arkansas | Texas A&M | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.09 | 1.67 | 1.27 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.78 | 0.95 | 1.06 |
| Passing (close) | 1.76 | 2.06 | 1.49 |
| Standard Downs | 0.87 | 1.62 | 1.11 |
| Passing Downs | 2.97 | 2.21 | 1.80 |
| Line Stats | Arkansas | Texas A&M | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 4.20 | 2.94 | 2.84 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 9.5% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 16.7% | 0.0% | 6.8% |
| Turnovers | Arkansas | Texas A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 6.7 | 0.0 |
| Turnover Margin | Texas A&M +2 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Texas A&M +0.51 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Texas A&M +1.49 | |
| TO Points Margin | Texas A&M +6.7 points | |
| Situational | Arkansas | Texas A&M |
| Q1 S&P | 0.667 | 0.709 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.613 | 0.996 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.937 | 0.552 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.623 | 0.688 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.667 | 0.806 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.713 | 0.890 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.594 | 0.534 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Texas A&M by 3.7 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Texas A&M by 7 | ||
Power to A&M for figuring out a way to win this game. Arkansas did an incredible job of playing keep-away, moving the ball efficiently, and shutting down A&M drives once the Aggies fell into passing downs. But A&M stayed close enough for the Arkansas Close-Game Jinx to take over. And it always does.
Bret Bielema teams have now lost 14 consecutive one-possession games and 16 of 18. Arkansas is 0-9 in such games since Bielema took over in 2013, and the last one he won came in early 2012 at Wisconsin, when his Badgers watched Utah State miss a makeable field goal at the buzzer.
Close-game records are tricky. There is a major element of randomness involved, enough to make us assume that things will even out over time. From 2006-10, for instance, Bielema's Badgers were 18-7 in such games. Still, when you fall into this much of a funk, be it because of a little or a lot of randomness, it creates of a crisis of confidence. When Arkansas finds itself in a tight game late, the Hogs cannot call on previous experience to help them pull through. And even when they surged ahead of Texas A&M on Saturday -- two touchdowns in five minutes gave them a 21-13 advantage -- the lead never felt safe.
The Razorbacks' last three possessions after taking the lead: punt, fumble, turnover on downs, and a 28-21 overtime loss.
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