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LSU 34, Syracuse 24: Tigers lean on you, and you eventually fall down

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Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

LSUSyracuseWP

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Name

Down-Distance-Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team WP Before Play

Home Team WP Added

1

80

Syracuse

2-10-13

2

FIELD_GOAL

0.542

-0.164

2

112

LSU

2-13-62

3

Leonard Fournette Rush for 62, TOUCHDOWN

0.243

-0.162

3

24

LSU

2-8-63

1

Leonard Fournette Rush for 48, FIRST DOWN

0.531

-0.139

4

87

LSU

3-4-61

3

Brandon Harris Pass to Malachi Dupre for 42, FIRST DOWN

0.393

-0.130

5

105

Syracuse

1-10-40

3

Zack Mahoney Pass to Brisly Estime for 40, TOUCHDOWN

0.139

0.114

LSU 34, Syracuse 24

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics LSU Syracuse Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 58 69
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 88.2%
Avg Starting FP 28.2 32.6 29.5
Possessions 11 12
Scoring Opportunities*
6 5
Points Per Opportunity 4.50 4.80 4.82
Leverage Rate** 60.3% 66.7% 68.5%
Close S&P*** 0.660 0.493 0.588
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) LSU Syracuse
Total 39.2 26.5
Rushing 26.6 12.0
Passing 12.6 14.5
Success Rate (what's this?) LSU Syracuse Nat'l Avg
All (close) 37.9% 33.3% 41.9%
Rushing (close) 37.5% 32.1% 42.8%
Passing (close) 38.9% 34.6% 40.9%
Standard Downs 45.7% 41.7% 47.3%
Passing Downs 26.1% 16.7% 30.2%
IsoPPP (what's this?) LSU Syracuse Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.78 1.13 1.27
Rushing (close) 1.77 1.04 1.06
Passing (close) 1.80 1.23 1.49
Standard Downs 1.01 1.04 1.11
Passing Downs 3.83 1.58 1.80
Line Stats LSU Syracuse Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.03 2.87 2.84
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 12.5% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 10.0% 8.3% 6.8%
Turnovers LSU Syracuse
Turnovers 0 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 4.3
Turnover Margin LSU +1
Exp. TO Margin LSU +0.22
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) LSU +0.78
TO Points Margin LSU +4.3 points
Situational LSU Syracuse
Q1 S&P 0.632 0.221
Q2 S&P 0.436 0.519
Q3 S&P 0.786 0.693
Q4 S&P 0.688 0.521
1st Down S&P 0.706 0.514
2nd Down S&P 0.409 0.561
3rd Down S&P 0.827 0.386
Projected Scoring Margin: LSU by 17.0
Actual Scoring Margin: LSU by 10

This is how LSU beats you in 2015. No dramatics, no huge, Les Miles-esque swings in fortune. They just lean on you, and eventually you fall down. Syracuse actually held up longer than Auburn and Mississippi State did (MSU fell over, then managed to get back up late), and power to the Orange for that -- they aren't nearly the pushover I expected them to be this year, and they're far further along offensively than I predicted, and kudos to them. But even when the game was close, it never felt in doubt.