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Duke 34, Georgia Tech 20: Blue Devils put on a Little Things clinic

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Mark Dolejs-USA TODAY Sports

gtdukewp

Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Name

Down-Distance-Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team WP Before Play

Home Team WP Added

1

116

Georgia Tech

5-0-0

3

Duke Kick Return

0.793

0.134

2

5

Duke

2-2-51

1

Shaun Wilson Rush for 2, FUMBLE

0.619

-0.131

3

158

Duke

3-5-70

4

Thomas Sirk Pass to NA NA for 0, INTERCEPTION

0.867

-0.113

4

153

Georgia Tech

3-10-12

4

Justin Thomas Rush for 12, TOUCHDOWN

0.951

-0.104

5

169

Georgia Tech

3-5-57

4

Justin Thomas Rush for -4, FUMBLE

0.829

0.094

Duke 34, Georgia Tech 20

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Duke Georgia Tech Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 61 82
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 41.2 30.8 29.5
Possessions 15 16
Scoring Opportunities*
5 5
Points Per Opportunity 5.60 4.00 4.82
Leverage Rate** 80.3% 59.8% 68.5%
Close S&P*** 0.531 0.473 0.588
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Duke Georgia Tech
Total 25.9 28.6
Rushing 16.1 17.3
Passing 9.8 11.3
Success Rate (what's this?) Duke Georgia Tech Nat'l Avg
All (close) 39.3% 31.7% 41.9%
Rushing (close) 37.1% 34.5% 42.8%
Passing (close) 42.3% 25.0% 40.9%
Standard Downs 42.9% 42.9% 47.3%
Passing Downs 25.0% 15.2% 30.2%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Duke Georgia Tech Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.08 1.10 1.27
Rushing (close) 1.24 0.86 1.06
Passing (close) 0.89 1.88 1.49
Standard Downs 1.05 1.08 1.11
Passing Downs 1.32 1.19 1.80
Line Stats Duke Georgia Tech Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.21 2.35 2.84
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 11.1% 11.8% 6.8%
Turnovers Duke Georgia Tech
Turnovers 3 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 12.1 7.0
Turnover Margin Georgia Tech +1
Exp. TO Margin Duke +2.19
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Georgia Tech +3.19
TO Points Margin Georgia Tech +5.2 points
Situational Duke Georgia Tech
Q1 S&P 0.774 0.280
Q2 S&P 0.452 0.608
Q3 S&P 0.377 0.301
Q4 S&P 1.011 0.509
1st Down S&P 0.487 0.473
2nd Down S&P 0.592 0.525
3rd Down S&P 0.418 0.512
Projected Scoring Margin: Georgia Tech by 7.8
Actual Scoring Margin: Duke by 14

Man, Duke just put on a Little Things clinic. In terms of both equivalent points and yards, Georgia Tech out-gained the Blue Devils; plus, the Yellow Jackets won the turnover battle. But Duke converted chances better, returned a kickoff for a touchdown, and controlled the field in the field position game. Tech had to face longer fields and, for the last 50 minutes, a deficit. It kept seeming like GT might claw back, but they were running uphill all day. And because of that, Duke is going to play a serious role in the ACC division title race once again.