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Iowa 27, Pitt 24: Hawkeyes nearly put the game away twice and couldn't...then won anyway

Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports

Pitt @ Iowa

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Top Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down-Distance-Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Win Probability Before Play

Home Team Win Probability Added

1

167

Iowa

4-2-39

4

FIELD_GOAL

0.624

0.376

2

156

Pittsburgh

2-8-8

4

Nate Peterman Pass to Tyler Boyd for 8, TOUCHDOWN

0.785

-0.243

3

109

Iowa

4-11-50

3

PUNT

0.796

-0.215

4

25

Pittsburgh

3-5-5

1

Nate Peterman Pass INTERCEPTED

0.513

0.144

5

140

Iowa

2-1-1

4

Jordan Canzeri Rush for 1, TOUCHDOWN

0.767

0.124

Iowa 27, Pittsburgh 24

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Iowa Pittsburgh Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 69 58
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 25.3 29.0 29.6
Possessions 11 10
Scoring Opportunities*
4 4
Points Per Opportunity 6.75 4.25 4.82
Leverage Rate** 71.0% 69.0% 68.7%
Close S&P*** 0.555 0.530 0.587
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Iowa Pittsburgh
Total 32.2 25.4
Rushing 10.5 5.0
Passing 21.8 20.4
Success Rate (what's this?) Iowa Pittsburgh Nat'l Avg
All (close) 40.6% 34.5% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 53.6% 20.0% 42.8%
Passing (close) 31.7% 45.5% 40.7%
Standard Downs 40.8% 30.0% 47.3%
Passing Downs 40.0% 44.4% 29.8%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Iowa Pittsburgh Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.15 1.27 1.26
Rushing (close) 0.70 1.00 1.06
Passing (close) 1.67 1.36 1.49
Standard Downs 1.08 1.45 1.10
Passing Downs 1.34 0.99 1.81
Line Stats Iowa Pittsburgh Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.41 2.08 2.83
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 4.4% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 16.7% 6.6%
Turnovers Iowa Pittsburgh
Turnovers 1 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 6.1 7.6
Turnover Margin Iowa +1
Exp. TO Margin +0
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Iowa +1
TO Points Margin Iowa +1.5 points
Situational Iowa Pittsburgh
Q1 S&P 0.550 0.595
Q2 S&P 0.568 0.412
Q3 S&P 0.480 0.522
Q4 S&P 0.676 0.572
1st Down S&P 0.537 0.518
2nd Down S&P 0.581 0.663
3rd Down S&P 0.587 0.523
Projected Scoring Margin: Iowa by 8.4
Actual Scoring Margin: Iowa by 3

Even by Pitt standards, this was a brutal way to lose a game. Block a punt, move past some early mistakes (interceptions on each of the first two possessions), erase a 10-point deficit, tie the game with under a minute left ... and lose via 57-yard field goal. The blocked punt touchdown evened out what was otherwise an Iowa advantage, but then Iowa won anyway.