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Pitt @ Iowa
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Top Plays
|
|
Play Number |
Offense |
Down-Distance-Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Win Probability Before Play |
Home Team Win Probability Added |
|
1 |
167 |
Iowa |
4-2-39 |
4 |
FIELD_GOAL |
0.624 |
0.376 |
|
2 |
156 |
Pittsburgh |
2-8-8 |
4 |
Nate Peterman Pass to Tyler Boyd for 8, TOUCHDOWN |
0.785 |
-0.243 |
|
3 |
109 |
Iowa |
4-11-50 |
3 |
PUNT |
0.796 |
-0.215 |
|
4 |
25 |
Pittsburgh |
3-5-5 |
1 |
Nate Peterman Pass INTERCEPTED |
0.513 |
0.144 |
|
5 |
140 |
Iowa |
2-1-1 |
4 |
Jordan Canzeri Rush for 1, TOUCHDOWN |
0.767 |
0.124 |
Iowa 27, Pittsburgh 24
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Iowa | Pittsburgh | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 69 | 58 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 25.3 | 29.0 | 29.6 |
| Possessions | 11 | 10 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
4 | 4 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 6.75 | 4.25 | 4.82 |
| Leverage Rate** | 71.0% | 69.0% | 68.7% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.555 | 0.530 | 0.587 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Iowa | Pittsburgh | |
| Total | 32.2 | 25.4 | |
| Rushing | 10.5 | 5.0 | |
| Passing | 21.8 | 20.4 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Iowa | Pittsburgh | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 40.6% | 34.5% | 41.8% |
| Rushing (close) | 53.6% | 20.0% | 42.8% |
| Passing (close) | 31.7% | 45.5% | 40.7% |
| Standard Downs | 40.8% | 30.0% | 47.3% |
| Passing Downs | 40.0% | 44.4% | 29.8% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Iowa | Pittsburgh | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.15 | 1.27 | 1.26 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.70 | 1.00 | 1.06 |
| Passing (close) | 1.67 | 1.36 | 1.49 |
| Standard Downs | 1.08 | 1.45 | 1.10 |
| Passing Downs | 1.34 | 0.99 | 1.81 |
| Line Stats | Iowa | Pittsburgh | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.41 | 2.08 | 2.83 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 4.4% | 0.0% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 16.7% | 6.6% |
| Turnovers | Iowa | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 6.1 | 7.6 |
| Turnover Margin | Iowa +1 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | +0 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Iowa +1 | |
| TO Points Margin | Iowa +1.5 points | |
| Situational | Iowa | Pittsburgh |
| Q1 S&P | 0.550 | 0.595 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.568 | 0.412 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.480 | 0.522 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.676 | 0.572 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.537 | 0.518 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.581 | 0.663 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.587 | 0.523 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Iowa by 8.4 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Iowa by 3 | ||
Even by Pitt standards, this was a brutal way to lose a game. Block a punt, move past some early mistakes (interceptions on each of the first two possessions), erase a 10-point deficit, tie the game with under a minute left ... and lose via 57-yard field goal. The blocked punt touchdown evened out what was otherwise an Iowa advantage, but then Iowa won anyway.