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Ole Miss @ Alabama
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Top Plays
|
Play Number |
Offense |
Down-Distance-Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Win Probability Before Play |
Home Team Win Probability Added |
|
1 |
Mississippi |
5-0-0 |
1 |
KICKOFF |
0.599 |
-0.192 |
|
103 |
Mississippi |
3-1-66 |
3 |
Chad Kelly Pass to Quincy Adeboyejo for 66, TOUCHDOWN |
0.289 |
-0.175 |
|
69 |
Mississippi |
5-0-0 |
2 |
KICKOFF |
0.338 |
-0.147 |
|
162 |
Mississippi |
2-1-73 |
4 |
Chad Kelly Pass to Cody Core for 73, TOUCHDOWN |
0.186 |
-0.132 |
|
158 |
Alabama |
2-8-8 |
4 |
Jake Coker Pass to ArDarius Stewart for 8, TOUCHDOWN |
0.102 |
0.129 |
Ole Miss 43, Alabama 37
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Alabama | Ole Miss | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 100 | 65 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 91.5% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 28.1 | 40.0 | 29.6 |
| Possessions | 14 | 16 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
8 | 9 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 4.75 | 4.89 | 4.82 |
| Leverage Rate** | 60.5% | 60.0% | 68.7% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.551 | 0.636 | 0.587 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Alabama | Ole Miss | |
| Total | 47.4 | 40.5 | |
| Rushing | 20.9 | 8.8 | |
| Passing | 26.5 | 31.7 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Alabama | Ole Miss | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 38.4% | 35.4% | 41.8% |
| Rushing (close) | 46.0% | 33.3% | 42.8% |
| Passing (close) | 32.7% | 37.1% | 40.7% |
| Standard Downs | 36.5% | 35.9% | 47.3% |
| Passing Downs | 41.2% | 34.6% | 29.8% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Alabama | Ole Miss | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.22 | 1.76 | 1.26 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.12 | 0.88 | 1.06 |
| Passing (close) | 1.33 | 2.44 | 1.49 |
| Standard Downs | 0.93 | 1.91 | 1.10 |
| Passing Downs | 1.61 | 1.53 | 1.81 |
| Line Stats | Alabama | Ole Miss | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.27 | 2.21 | 2.83 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 4.6% | 0.0% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 11.1% | 6.6% |
| Turnovers | Alabama | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 5 | 0 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 18.6 | 0.0 |
| Turnover Margin | Ole Miss +5 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Ole Miss +1.61 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Ole Miss +3.39 | |
| TO Points Margin | Ole Miss +18.6 points | |
| Situational | Alabama | Ole Miss |
| Q1 S&P | 0.549 | 0.456 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.504 | 0.425 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.595 | 0.711 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.576 | 0.815 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.574 | 0.699 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.437 | 0.456 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.626 | 0.779 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Ole Miss by 11.7 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Ole Miss by 6 | ||
I've had fun needling Ole Miss fans this week ... your team's awesome! You deserve to be No. 1! Y'all were lucky as hell! Both can be true. The Rebels' run defense was good, their pass defense was great, and their big pass plays were enormous (and often intentional!). And if Alabama recovers any one of the game's three fumbles, the Tide quite possibly win. But hey ... needing good fortune to win in Tuscaloosa (and pull off two straight wins over Bama for the first time ever) is not the greatest shame in the world.
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