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Ole Miss 43, Alabama 37: You need both good fortune and awesome play to win in Tuscaloosa

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Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

Ole Miss @ Alabama

OleMissBamaWP

Top Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down-Distance-Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Win Probability Before Play

Home Team Win Probability Added

1

Mississippi

5-0-0

1

KICKOFF

0.599

-0.192

103

Mississippi

3-1-66

3

Chad Kelly Pass to Quincy Adeboyejo for 66, TOUCHDOWN

0.289

-0.175

69

Mississippi

5-0-0

2

KICKOFF

0.338

-0.147

162

Mississippi

2-1-73

4

Chad Kelly Pass to Cody Core for 73, TOUCHDOWN

0.186

-0.132

158

Alabama

2-8-8

4

Jake Coker Pass to ArDarius Stewart for 8, TOUCHDOWN

0.102

0.129

Ole Miss 43, Alabama 37

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Alabama Ole Miss Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 100 65
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 91.5%
Avg Starting FP 28.1 40.0 29.6
Possessions 14 16
Scoring Opportunities*
8 9
Points Per Opportunity 4.75 4.89 4.82
Leverage Rate** 60.5% 60.0% 68.7%
Close S&P*** 0.551 0.636 0.587
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Alabama Ole Miss
Total 47.4 40.5
Rushing 20.9 8.8
Passing 26.5 31.7
Success Rate (what's this?) Alabama Ole Miss Nat'l Avg
All (close) 38.4% 35.4% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 46.0% 33.3% 42.8%
Passing (close) 32.7% 37.1% 40.7%
Standard Downs 36.5% 35.9% 47.3%
Passing Downs 41.2% 34.6% 29.8%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Alabama Ole Miss Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.22 1.76 1.26
Rushing (close) 1.12 0.88 1.06
Passing (close) 1.33 2.44 1.49
Standard Downs 0.93 1.91 1.10
Passing Downs 1.61 1.53 1.81
Line Stats Alabama Ole Miss Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.27 2.21 2.83
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 4.6% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 11.1% 6.6%
Turnovers Alabama Ole Miss
Turnovers 5 0
Turnover Points (what's this?) 18.6 0.0
Turnover Margin Ole Miss +5
Exp. TO Margin Ole Miss +1.61
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Ole Miss +3.39
TO Points Margin Ole Miss +18.6 points
Situational Alabama Ole Miss
Q1 S&P 0.549 0.456
Q2 S&P 0.504 0.425
Q3 S&P 0.595 0.711
Q4 S&P 0.576 0.815
1st Down S&P 0.574 0.699
2nd Down S&P 0.437 0.456
3rd Down S&P 0.626 0.779
Projected Scoring Margin: Ole Miss by 11.7
Actual Scoring Margin: Ole Miss by 6

I've had fun needling Ole Miss fans this week ... your team's awesome! You deserve to be No. 1! Y'all were lucky as hell! Both can be true. The Rebels' run defense was good, their pass defense was great, and their big pass plays were enormous (and often intentional!). And if Alabama recovers any one of the game's three fumbles, the Tide quite possibly win. But hey ... needing good fortune to win in Tuscaloosa (and pull off two straight wins over Bama for the first time ever) is not the greatest shame in the world.