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Cal @ Texas
Texas' missed extra point is tough to visually model, but basically the straight down fall at the end is the effect of that and Cal getting the ball back.
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Top Plays
|
Play Number |
Offense |
Down-Distance-Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Win Probability Before Play |
Home Team Win Probability Added |
|
220 |
California |
2-15-52 |
4 |
Team Rush for -6 (i.e. last play of the game) |
0.408 |
-0.408 |
|
216 |
Texas |
3-4-45 |
4 |
Jerrod Heard Rush for 45, TOUCHDOWN |
0.217 |
0.286 |
|
109 |
Texas |
1-10-57 |
2 |
Jerrod Heard Pass INTERCEPTED |
0.729 |
-0.187 |
|
31 |
Texas |
3-20-75 |
1 |
Jerrod Heard Pass to Daje Johnson for 45, FIRST DOWN |
0.267 |
0.185 |
|
45 |
California |
1-10-10 |
1 |
Khalfani Muhammad Rush for 10, FUMBLE |
0.378 |
0.185 |
California 45, Texas 44
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | California | Texas | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 78 | 83 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 97.5% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 34.7 | 28.4 | 29.6 |
| Possessions | 15 | 14 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
9 | 8 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 5.00 | 5.62 | 4.82 |
| Leverage Rate** | 78.2% | 69.6% | 68.7% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.687 | 0.689 | 0.587 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | California | Texas | |
| Total | 53.0 | 59.3 | |
| Rushing | 26.0 | 28.1 | |
| Passing | 27.0 | 31.3 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | California | Texas | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 55.1% | 51.9% | 41.8% |
| Rushing (close) | 52.5% | 55.6% | 42.8% |
| Passing (close) | 57.9% | 47.1% | 40.7% |
| Standard Downs | 59.0% | 60.0% | 47.3% |
| Passing Downs | 41.2% | 33.3% | 29.8% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | California | Texas | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.23 | 1.37 | 1.26 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.24 | 1.00 | 1.06 |
| Passing (close) | 1.23 | 1.95 | 1.49 |
| Standard Downs | 1.21 | 1.11 | 1.10 |
| Passing Downs | 1.32 | 2.44 | 1.81 |
| Line Stats | California | Texas | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.90 | 3.31 | 2.83 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 14.3% | 6.6% |
| Turnovers | California | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 12.9 | 9.2 |
| Turnover Margin | +0 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | +0 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | +0 | |
| TO Points Margin | Texas +3.7 points | |
| Situational | California | Texas |
| Q1 S&P | 0.626 | 0.767 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.825 | 0.645 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.845 | 0.589 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.269 | 0.742 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.688 | 0.750 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.761 | 0.677 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.611 | 0.653 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Texas by 10.1 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: California by 1 | ||
Man, both teams grasped defeat from the jaws of victory a couple of times in this one. But Cal's ability to tilt the field and avoid passing downs tipped this one a bit in the Bears' favor. All in all, a wonderful, semi-tragic way to spend a Saturday night.