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Cal @ Texas
Texas' missed extra point is tough to visually model, but basically the straight down fall at the end is the effect of that and Cal getting the ball back.
Top Plays
Play Number |
Offense |
Down-Distance-Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Win Probability Before Play |
Home Team Win Probability Added |
220 |
California |
2-15-52 |
4 |
Team Rush for -6 (i.e. last play of the game) |
0.408 |
-0.408 |
216 |
Texas |
3-4-45 |
4 |
Jerrod Heard Rush for 45, TOUCHDOWN |
0.217 |
0.286 |
109 |
Texas |
1-10-57 |
2 |
Jerrod Heard Pass INTERCEPTED |
0.729 |
-0.187 |
31 |
Texas |
3-20-75 |
1 |
Jerrod Heard Pass to Daje Johnson for 45, FIRST DOWN |
0.267 |
0.185 |
45 |
California |
1-10-10 |
1 |
Khalfani Muhammad Rush for 10, FUMBLE |
0.378 |
0.185 |
California 45, Texas 44
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
Basics | California | Texas | Nat'l Avg |
---|---|---|---|
Total Plays | 78 | 83 | |
Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 97.5% | ||
Avg Starting FP | 34.7 | 28.4 | 29.6 |
Possessions | 15 | 14 | |
Scoring Opportunities* |
9 | 8 | |
Points Per Opportunity | 5.00 | 5.62 | 4.82 |
Leverage Rate** | 78.2% | 69.6% | 68.7% |
Close S&P*** | 0.687 | 0.689 | 0.587 |
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
EqPts (what's this?) | California | Texas | |
Total | 53.0 | 59.3 | |
Rushing | 26.0 | 28.1 | |
Passing | 27.0 | 31.3 | |
Success Rate (what's this?) | California | Texas | Nat'l Avg |
All (close) | 55.1% | 51.9% | 41.8% |
Rushing (close) | 52.5% | 55.6% | 42.8% |
Passing (close) | 57.9% | 47.1% | 40.7% |
Standard Downs | 59.0% | 60.0% | 47.3% |
Passing Downs | 41.2% | 33.3% | 29.8% |
IsoPPP (what's this?) | California | Texas | Nat'l Avg |
All (close) | 1.23 | 1.37 | 1.26 |
Rushing (close) | 1.24 | 1.00 | 1.06 |
Passing (close) | 1.23 | 1.95 | 1.49 |
Standard Downs | 1.21 | 1.11 | 1.10 |
Passing Downs | 1.32 | 2.44 | 1.81 |
Line Stats | California | Texas | Nat'l Avg |
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.90 | 3.31 | 2.83 |
Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.7% |
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 14.3% | 6.6% |
Turnovers | California | Texas |
---|---|---|
Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
Turnover Points (what's this?) | 12.9 | 9.2 |
Turnover Margin | +0 | |
Exp. TO Margin | +0 | |
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | +0 | |
TO Points Margin | Texas +3.7 points | |
Situational | California | Texas |
Q1 S&P | 0.626 | 0.767 |
Q2 S&P | 0.825 | 0.645 |
Q3 S&P | 0.845 | 0.589 |
Q4 S&P | 0.269 | 0.742 |
1st Down S&P | 0.688 | 0.750 |
2nd Down S&P | 0.761 | 0.677 |
3rd Down S&P | 0.611 | 0.653 |
Projected Scoring Margin: Texas by 10.1 | ||
Actual Scoring Margin: California by 1 |
Man, both teams grasped defeat from the jaws of victory a couple of times in this one. But Cal's ability to tilt the field and avoid passing downs tipped this one a bit in the Bears' favor. All in all, a wonderful, semi-tragic way to spend a Saturday night.