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Cal 45, Texas 44: Big plays, mistakes, bigger plays, bigger mistakes

Brendan Maloney-USA TODAY Sports

Cal @ Texas

Texas' missed extra point is tough to visually model, but basically the straight down fall at the end is the effect of that and Cal getting the ball back.

CalTexasWP

Top Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down-Distance-Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Win Probability Before Play

Home Team Win Probability Added

220

California

2-15-52

4

Team Rush for -6 (i.e. last play of the game)

0.408

-0.408

216

Texas

3-4-45

4

Jerrod Heard Rush for 45, TOUCHDOWN

0.217

0.286

109

Texas

1-10-57

2

Jerrod Heard Pass INTERCEPTED

0.729

-0.187

31

Texas

3-20-75

1

Jerrod Heard Pass to Daje Johnson for 45, FIRST DOWN

0.267

0.185

45

California

1-10-10

1

Khalfani Muhammad Rush for 10, FUMBLE

0.378

0.185

California 45, Texas 44

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics California Texas Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 78 83
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 97.5%
Avg Starting FP 34.7 28.4 29.6
Possessions 15 14
Scoring Opportunities*
9 8
Points Per Opportunity 5.00 5.62 4.82
Leverage Rate** 78.2% 69.6% 68.7%
Close S&P*** 0.687 0.689 0.587
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) California Texas
Total 53.0 59.3
Rushing 26.0 28.1
Passing 27.0 31.3
Success Rate (what's this?) California Texas Nat'l Avg
All (close) 55.1% 51.9% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 52.5% 55.6% 42.8%
Passing (close) 57.9% 47.1% 40.7%
Standard Downs 59.0% 60.0% 47.3%
Passing Downs 41.2% 33.3% 29.8%
IsoPPP (what's this?) California Texas Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.23 1.37 1.26
Rushing (close) 1.24 1.00 1.06
Passing (close) 1.23 1.95 1.49
Standard Downs 1.21 1.11 1.10
Passing Downs 1.32 2.44 1.81
Line Stats California Texas Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.90 3.31 2.83
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 3.7% 5.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 14.3% 6.6%
Turnovers California Texas
Turnovers 2 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 12.9 9.2
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin +0
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) +0
TO Points Margin Texas +3.7 points
Situational California Texas
Q1 S&P 0.626 0.767
Q2 S&P 0.825 0.645
Q3 S&P 0.845 0.589
Q4 S&P 0.269 0.742
1st Down S&P 0.688 0.750
2nd Down S&P 0.761 0.677
3rd Down S&P 0.611 0.653
Projected Scoring Margin: Texas by 10.1
Actual Scoring Margin: California by 1

Man, both teams grasped defeat from the jaws of victory a couple of times in this one. But Cal's ability to tilt the field and avoid passing downs tipped this one a bit in the Bears' favor. All in all, a wonderful, semi-tragic way to spend a Saturday night.