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BYU @ UCLA
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Top Plays
|
Play Number |
Offense |
Down-Distance-Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Win Probability Before Play |
Home Team Win Probability Added |
|
192 |
UCLA |
3-12-85 |
4 |
Team Rush for -1 |
0.595 |
0.405 |
|
178 |
UCLA |
2-3-3 |
4 |
Nate Starks Rush for 3, TOUCHDOWN |
0.395 |
0.236 |
|
152 |
UCLA |
2-6-19 |
4 |
Josh Rosen Pass to Jordan Payton for 19, TOUCHDOWN |
0.184 |
0.197 |
|
32 |
UCLA |
2-7-9 |
1 |
Josh Rosen Pass INTERCEPTED |
0.478 |
-0.168 |
|
119 |
BYU |
3-5-14 |
3 |
Tanner Mangum Pass to Mitch Mathews for 14, TOUCHDOWN |
0.427 |
-0.139 |
UCLA 24, BYU 23
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | BYU | UCLA | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 88 | 61 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 28.0 | 31.8 | 29.6 |
| Possessions | 13 | 12 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
6 | 6 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 3.83 | 4.00 | 4.82 |
| Leverage Rate** | 65.9% | 75.4% | 68.7% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.531 | 0.639 | 0.587 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | BYU | UCLA | |
| Total | 35.9 | 37.5 | |
| Rushing | 16.0 | 28.0 | |
| Passing | 19.9 | 9.5 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | BYU | UCLA | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 42.1% | 47.5% | 41.8% |
| Rushing (close) | 40.5% | 55.3% | 42.8% |
| Passing (close) | 43.1% | 34.8% | 40.7% |
| Standard Downs | 50.0% | 58.7% | 47.3% |
| Passing Downs | 26.7% | 13.3% | 29.8% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | BYU | UCLA | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.97 | 1.29 | 1.26 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.07 | 1.33 | 1.06 |
| Passing (close) | 0.90 | 1.18 | 1.49 |
| Standard Downs | 0.85 | 1.29 | 1.10 |
| Passing Downs | 1.39 | 1.37 | 1.81 |
| Line Stats | BYU | UCLA | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.29 | 3.66 | 2.83 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 6.3% | 0.0% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 10.5% | 0.0% | 6.6% |
| Turnovers | BYU | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 3 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 2.2 | 15.1 |
| Turnover Margin | BYU +2 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | BYU +0.07 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | BYU +1.93 | |
| TO Points Margin | BYU +12.9 points | |
| Situational | BYU | UCLA |
| Q1 S&P | 0.504 | 0.734 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.448 | 0.473 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.740 | 0.535 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.491 | 0.821 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.551 | 0.637 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.560 | 0.698 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.498 | 0.681 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: BYU by 11.4 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: UCLA by 1 | ||
It was actually a surprise when BYU DIDN'T complete that late fourth-down pass for a touchdown, wasn't it?
UCLA's first-half turnovers probably should have made the difference in the game, but the Bruins realized just in the nick of time, "Hey, uh, we can really run the ball well." And after two stagnant quarters, they started to move the ball again.