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UCLA 24, BYU 23: Bruins realized they could run the ball just in the nick of time

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

BYU @ UCLA

BYUUCLAWP

Top Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down-Distance-Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Win Probability Before Play

Home Team Win Probability Added

192

UCLA

3-12-85

4

Team Rush for -1

0.595

0.405

178

UCLA

2-3-3

4

Nate Starks Rush for 3, TOUCHDOWN

0.395

0.236

152

UCLA

2-6-19

4

Josh Rosen Pass to Jordan Payton for 19, TOUCHDOWN

0.184

0.197

32

UCLA

2-7-9

1

Josh Rosen Pass INTERCEPTED

0.478

-0.168

119

BYU

3-5-14

3

Tanner Mangum Pass to Mitch Mathews for 14, TOUCHDOWN

0.427

-0.139

UCLA 24, BYU 23

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics BYU UCLA Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 88 61
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 28.0 31.8 29.6
Possessions 13 12
Scoring Opportunities*
6 6
Points Per Opportunity 3.83 4.00 4.82
Leverage Rate** 65.9% 75.4% 68.7%
Close S&P*** 0.531 0.639 0.587
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) BYU UCLA
Total 35.9 37.5
Rushing 16.0 28.0
Passing 19.9 9.5
Success Rate (what's this?) BYU UCLA Nat'l Avg
All (close) 42.1% 47.5% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 40.5% 55.3% 42.8%
Passing (close) 43.1% 34.8% 40.7%
Standard Downs 50.0% 58.7% 47.3%
Passing Downs 26.7% 13.3% 29.8%
IsoPPP (what's this?) BYU UCLA Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.97 1.29 1.26
Rushing (close) 1.07 1.33 1.06
Passing (close) 0.90 1.18 1.49
Standard Downs 0.85 1.29 1.10
Passing Downs 1.39 1.37 1.81
Line Stats BYU UCLA Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.29 3.66 2.83
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 6.3% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 10.5% 0.0% 6.6%
Turnovers BYU UCLA
Turnovers 1 3
Turnover Points (what's this?) 2.2 15.1
Turnover Margin BYU +2
Exp. TO Margin BYU +0.07
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) BYU +1.93
TO Points Margin BYU +12.9 points
Situational BYU UCLA
Q1 S&P 0.504 0.734
Q2 S&P 0.448 0.473
Q3 S&P 0.740 0.535
Q4 S&P 0.491 0.821
1st Down S&P 0.551 0.637
2nd Down S&P 0.560 0.698
3rd Down S&P 0.498 0.681
Projected Scoring Margin: BYU by 11.4
Actual Scoring Margin: UCLA by 1

It was actually a surprise when BYU DIDN'T complete that late fourth-down pass for a touchdown, wasn't it?

UCLA's first-half turnovers probably should have made the difference in the game, but the Bruins realized just in the nick of time, "Hey, uh, we can really run the ball well." And after two stagnant quarters, they started to move the ball again.