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LSU 45, Auburn 21: Vulnerable, wounded opponent? Take 'em out early.

Erich Schlegel-USA TODAY Sports

Auburn @ LSU

AubLSUWP

Top Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down-Distance-Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Win Probability Before Play

Home Team Win Probability Added

2

LSU

1-10-75

1

Leonard Fournette Rush for 71, FIRST DOWN

0.562

0.175

14

Auburn

2-11-52

1

Jeremy Johnson Rush for -18, FUMBLE

0.715

0.098

16

Auburn

4-24-65

1

PUNT

0.826

-0.065

26

LSU

3-7-37

1

Brandon Harris Rush for 27, FIRST DOWN

0.816

0.062

38

Auburn

2-5-58

1

Peyton Barber Rush for 5, FIRST DOWN

0.903

-0.047

(Most of Leonard Fournette's damage came once the game was basically over.)

LSU 45, Auburn 21

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Auburn LSU Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 56 65
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 57.0%
Avg Starting FP 29.0 29.8 29.6
Possessions 11 12
Scoring Opportunities*
3 8
Points Per Opportunity 7.00 5.62 4.82
Leverage Rate** 57.7% 83.7% 68.7%
Close S&P*** 0.365 0.771 0.587
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Auburn LSU
Total 25.6 46.0
Rushing 17.0 39.7
Passing 8.7 6.3
Success Rate (what's this?) Auburn LSU Nat'l Avg
All (close) 26.9% 62.8% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 38.5% 65.6% 42.8%
Passing (close) 15.4% 54.6% 40.7%
Standard Downs 40.0% 66.7% 47.3%
Passing Downs 9.1% 42.9% 29.8%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Auburn LSU Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.75 1.34 1.26
Rushing (close) 0.60 1.56 1.06
Passing (close) 1.12 0.57 1.49
Standard Downs 0.66 1.29 1.10
Passing Downs 1.32 1.75 1.81
Line Stats Auburn LSU Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 1.46 4.53 2.83
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 20.0% 0.0% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 6.6%
Turnovers Auburn LSU
Turnovers 2 0
Turnover Points (what's this?) 7.1 0.0
Turnover Margin LSU +2
Exp. TO Margin LSU +1.68
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) LSU +0.32
TO Points Margin LSU +7.1 points
Situational Auburn LSU
Q1 S&P 0.404 0.787
Q2 S&P 0.407 0.690
Q3 S&P 0.744 0.724
Q4 S&P 0.543 0.572
1st Down S&P 0.496 0.713
2nd Down S&P 0.454 0.688
3rd Down S&P 0.659 0.720
Projected Scoring Margin: LSU by 27.4
Actual Scoring Margin: LSU by 24

At some point this year, Brandon Harris going to have to pass downfield. Because of Fournette and that defense, it might not happen much, but it'll happen. And we don't know if he'll pull it off.

Still, a 55% passing success rate -- 15% above the national average -- is a good sign, as is LSU's 43% success rate on passing downs (which was higher than Auburn's success rate on STANDARD downs). LSU did an excellent job of finishing off a wounded, vulnerable Auburn team before Auburn could even think about trying to win the game. It was over early.