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Auburn @ LSU
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Top Plays
|
Play Number |
Offense |
Down-Distance-Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Win Probability Before Play |
Home Team Win Probability Added |
|
2 |
LSU |
1-10-75 |
1 |
Leonard Fournette Rush for 71, FIRST DOWN |
0.562 |
0.175 |
|
14 |
Auburn |
2-11-52 |
1 |
Jeremy Johnson Rush for -18, FUMBLE |
0.715 |
0.098 |
|
16 |
Auburn |
4-24-65 |
1 |
PUNT |
0.826 |
-0.065 |
|
26 |
LSU |
3-7-37 |
1 |
Brandon Harris Rush for 27, FIRST DOWN |
0.816 |
0.062 |
|
38 |
Auburn |
2-5-58 |
1 |
Peyton Barber Rush for 5, FIRST DOWN |
0.903 |
-0.047 |
(Most of Leonard Fournette's damage came once the game was basically over.)
LSU 45, Auburn 21
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Auburn | LSU | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 56 | 65 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 57.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 29.0 | 29.8 | 29.6 |
| Possessions | 11 | 12 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
3 | 8 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 7.00 | 5.62 | 4.82 |
| Leverage Rate** | 57.7% | 83.7% | 68.7% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.365 | 0.771 | 0.587 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Auburn | LSU | |
| Total | 25.6 | 46.0 | |
| Rushing | 17.0 | 39.7 | |
| Passing | 8.7 | 6.3 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Auburn | LSU | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 26.9% | 62.8% | 41.8% |
| Rushing (close) | 38.5% | 65.6% | 42.8% |
| Passing (close) | 15.4% | 54.6% | 40.7% |
| Standard Downs | 40.0% | 66.7% | 47.3% |
| Passing Downs | 9.1% | 42.9% | 29.8% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Auburn | LSU | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.75 | 1.34 | 1.26 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.60 | 1.56 | 1.06 |
| Passing (close) | 1.12 | 0.57 | 1.49 |
| Standard Downs | 0.66 | 1.29 | 1.10 |
| Passing Downs | 1.32 | 1.75 | 1.81 |
| Line Stats | Auburn | LSU | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 1.46 | 4.53 | 2.83 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 20.0% | 0.0% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.6% |
| Turnovers | Auburn | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 7.1 | 0.0 |
| Turnover Margin | LSU +2 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | LSU +1.68 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | LSU +0.32 | |
| TO Points Margin | LSU +7.1 points | |
| Situational | Auburn | LSU |
| Q1 S&P | 0.404 | 0.787 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.407 | 0.690 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.744 | 0.724 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.543 | 0.572 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.496 | 0.713 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.454 | 0.688 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.659 | 0.720 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: LSU by 27.4 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: LSU by 24 | ||
At some point this year, Brandon Harris going to have to pass downfield. Because of Fournette and that defense, it might not happen much, but it'll happen. And we don't know if he'll pull it off.
Still, a 55% passing success rate -- 15% above the national average -- is a good sign, as is LSU's 43% success rate on passing downs (which was higher than Auburn's success rate on STANDARD downs). LSU did an excellent job of finishing off a wounded, vulnerable Auburn team before Auburn could even think about trying to win the game. It was over early.