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Clemson 20, Louisville 17: Cards blew a couple of opportunities to steal one

Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports

Clemson @ Louisville

ClemULWP

Top Plays

Here are the plays that had the largest effect on in-game win probability.

Play Number

Offense

Down - Distance - Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team WP Before Snap

Win Probability Added

180

Louisville

3-14-41

4

Kyle Bolin Pass INTERCEPTED

0.429

-0.429

149

Clemson (Clemson kicked off to UL)

5-0-0

4

KICKOFF (returned for TD)

0.085

0.293

78

Louisville

2-10-70

2

Kyle Bolin Pass to Jaylen Smith for 55 yards

0.297

0.151

169

Louisville

4-8-21

4

FIELD GOAL

0.450

-0.139

126

Clemson

1-10-25

3

Deshaun Watson Pass to Jordan Leggett for 25, TOUCHDOWN

0.404

-0.135

120

Louisville

4-24-90

3

PUNT

0.389

0.107

129

Louisville

1-10-75

3

Kyle Bolin Pass INTERCEPTED

0.282

-0.093

Clemson 20, Louisville 17

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Clemson Louisville Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 70 63
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 28.4 25.8 29.6
Possessions 14 13
Scoring Opportunities*
4 5
Points Per Opportunity 5.00 2.00 4.82
Leverage Rate** 81.4% 68.3% 68.7%
Close S&P*** 0.590 0.501 0.587
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Clemson Louisville
Total 35.8 24.4
Rushing 17.1 5.0
Passing 18.7 19.4
Success Rate (what's this?) Clemson Louisville Nat'l Avg
All (close) 45.7% 34.9% 41.8%
Rushing (close) 46.2% 34.8% 42.8%
Passing (close) 45.2% 35.0% 40.7%
Standard Downs 50.9% 41.9% 47.3%
Passing Downs 23.1% 20.0% 29.8%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Clemson Louisville Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.12 1.11 1.26
Rushing (close) 0.95 0.63 1.06
Passing (close) 1.34 1.38 1.49
Standard Downs 1.09 0.73 1.10
Passing Downs 1.42 2.83 1.81
Line Stats Clemson Louisville Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.80 1.77 2.83
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 12.5% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 20.0% 12.5% 6.6%
Turnovers Clemson Louisville
Turnovers 2 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 3.2 4.8
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Clemson +1.68
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Louisville +1.68
TO Points Margin Clemson +1.5 points
Situational Clemson Louisville
Q1 S&P 0.458 0.270
Q2 S&P 0.683 0.625
Q3 S&P 0.647 0.580
Q4 S&P 0.573 0.505
1st Down S&P 0.552 0.570
2nd Down S&P 0.657 0.466
3rd Down S&P 0.563 0.662
Projected Scoring Margin: Clemson by 13.0
Actual Scoring Margin: Clemson by 3

Louisville did a mostly awesome job of erasing Clemson's big-play capability and nearly turned the game around with a kick return and late charge. But the game came down to three things: efficiency (Clemson had it, and Louisville didn't), converted scoring opportunities (Clemson had them, and Louisville REALLY didn't), and those blown late chances. Louisville missed a makable field goal, then Clemson picked off a pass in the end zone on the final play.

Clemson should've won by a lot more, but credit to Louisville for scrapping and nearly stealing one.