:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/47248404/usa-today-8807406.0.jpg)
Clemson @ Louisville
:format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/4084668/Screen_Shot_2015-09-22_at_5.36.08_AM.0.png)
Top Plays
Here are the plays that had the largest effect on in-game win probability.
|
Play Number |
Offense |
Down - Distance - Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team WP Before Snap |
Win Probability Added |
|
180 |
Louisville |
3-14-41 |
4 |
Kyle Bolin Pass INTERCEPTED |
0.429 |
-0.429 |
|
149 |
Clemson (Clemson kicked off to UL) |
5-0-0 |
4 |
KICKOFF (returned for TD) |
0.085 |
0.293 |
|
78 |
Louisville |
2-10-70 |
2 |
Kyle Bolin Pass to Jaylen Smith for 55 yards |
0.297 |
0.151 |
|
169 |
Louisville |
4-8-21 |
4 |
FIELD GOAL |
0.450 |
-0.139 |
|
126 |
Clemson |
1-10-25 |
3 |
Deshaun Watson Pass to Jordan Leggett for 25, TOUCHDOWN |
0.404 |
-0.135 |
|
120 |
Louisville |
4-24-90 |
3 |
PUNT |
0.389 |
0.107 |
|
129 |
Louisville |
1-10-75 |
3 |
Kyle Bolin Pass INTERCEPTED |
0.282 |
-0.093 |
Clemson 20, Louisville 17
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Clemson | Louisville | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 70 | 63 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 28.4 | 25.8 | 29.6 |
| Possessions | 14 | 13 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
4 | 5 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 5.00 | 2.00 | 4.82 |
| Leverage Rate** | 81.4% | 68.3% | 68.7% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.590 | 0.501 | 0.587 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Clemson | Louisville | |
| Total | 35.8 | 24.4 | |
| Rushing | 17.1 | 5.0 | |
| Passing | 18.7 | 19.4 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Clemson | Louisville | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 45.7% | 34.9% | 41.8% |
| Rushing (close) | 46.2% | 34.8% | 42.8% |
| Passing (close) | 45.2% | 35.0% | 40.7% |
| Standard Downs | 50.9% | 41.9% | 47.3% |
| Passing Downs | 23.1% | 20.0% | 29.8% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Clemson | Louisville | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.12 | 1.11 | 1.26 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.95 | 0.63 | 1.06 |
| Passing (close) | 1.34 | 1.38 | 1.49 |
| Standard Downs | 1.09 | 0.73 | 1.10 |
| Passing Downs | 1.42 | 2.83 | 1.81 |
| Line Stats | Clemson | Louisville | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.80 | 1.77 | 2.83 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 12.5% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 20.0% | 12.5% | 6.6% |
| Turnovers | Clemson | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 3.2 | 4.8 |
| Turnover Margin | +0 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Clemson +1.68 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Louisville +1.68 | |
| TO Points Margin | Clemson +1.5 points | |
| Situational | Clemson | Louisville |
| Q1 S&P | 0.458 | 0.270 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.683 | 0.625 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.647 | 0.580 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.573 | 0.505 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.552 | 0.570 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.657 | 0.466 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.563 | 0.662 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Clemson by 13.0 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Clemson by 3 | ||
Louisville did a mostly awesome job of erasing Clemson's big-play capability and nearly turned the game around with a kick return and late charge. But the game came down to three things: efficiency (Clemson had it, and Louisville didn't), converted scoring opportunities (Clemson had them, and Louisville REALLY didn't), and those blown late chances. Louisville missed a makable field goal, then Clemson picked off a pass in the end zone on the final play.
Clemson should've won by a lot more, but credit to Louisville for scrapping and nearly stealing one.