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Oklahoma 31, Tennessee 24: "Diminishing returns" feels like an understatement for the Vols

Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports

Oklahoma 31, Tennessee 24

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Oklahoma Tennessee Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 87 76
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 22.4 33.9 29.7
Possessions 16 17
Scoring Opportunities*
5 8
Points Per Opportunity 3.40 2.12 4.80
Leverage Rate** 70.1% 68.4% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.494 0.465 0.584
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Oklahoma Tennessee
Total 32.4 24.8
Rushing 14.5 15.1
Passing 17.9 9.7
Success Rate (what's this?) Oklahoma Tennessee Nat'l Avg
All (close) 35.6% 34.2% 41.3%
Rushing (close) 34.8% 35.7% 42.5%
Passing (close) 36.6% 32.4% 40.1%
Standard Downs 39.3% 40.4% 46.8%
Passing Downs 26.9% 20.8% 29.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Oklahoma Tennessee Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.05 0.96 1.27
Rushing (close) 0.91 1.01 1.06
Passing (close) 1.19 0.89 1.49
Standard Downs 0.96 0.96 1.10
Passing Downs 1.35 0.94 1.83
Line Stats Oklahoma Tennessee Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.83 2.20 2.80
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 3.6% 6.7% 5.1%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 7.7% 10.5% 6.6%
Turnovers Oklahoma Tennessee
Turnovers 2 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 7.7 4.2
Turnover Margin Tennessee +1
Exp. TO Margin Tennessee +0.59
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Tennessee +0.41
TO Points Margin Tennessee +3.5 points
Situational Oklahoma Tennessee
Q1 S&P 0.386 0.586
Q2 S&P 0.534 0.445
Q3 S&P 0.210 0.375
Q4 S&P 0.582 0.000
1st Down S&P 0.457 0.450
2nd Down S&P 0.485 0.504
3rd Down S&P 0.445 0.455
Projected Scoring Margin: Oklahoma by 4.0
Actual Scoring Margin: Oklahoma by 7

I would say those per-quarter S&Ps tell the tale, wouldn't you? Tennessee went from 0.586 to 0.445 to 0.375 to ... 0.000. Zero successful plays in the fourth quarter. Hell of a rally by the Fightin' Stoopses.