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Bowling Green 48, Maryland 27
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Bowling Green | Maryland | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 105 | 59 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 94.5% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 34.3 | 30.8 | 29.7 |
| Possessions | 16 | 14 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
12 | 4 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 4.08 | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| Leverage Rate** | 72.5% | 59.7% | 68.3% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.655 | 0.585 | 0.584 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Bowling Green | Maryland | |
| Total | 66.8 | 31.5 | |
| Rushing | 20.8 | 14.0 | |
| Passing | 46.0 | 17.5 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Bowling Green | Maryland | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 48.0% | 33.3% | 41.3% |
| Rushing (close) | 51.3% | 38.5% | 42.5% |
| Passing (close) | 45.8% | 29.0% | 40.1% |
| Standard Downs | 50.7% | 38.2% | 46.8% |
| Passing Downs | 40.7% | 26.1% | 29.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Bowling Green | Maryland | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.35 | 1.59 | 1.27 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.88 | 1.40 | 1.06 |
| Passing (close) | 1.70 | 1.80 | 1.49 |
| Standard Downs | 1.01 | 1.04 | 1.10 |
| Passing Downs | 2.48 | 2.80 | 1.83 |
| Line Stats | Bowling Green | Maryland | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.62 | 3.27 | 2.80 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 7.5% | 0.0% | 5.1% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 5.3% | 0.0% | 6.6% |
| Turnovers | Bowling Green | Maryland |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 4 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 3.7 | 16.3 |
| Turnover Margin | Bowling Green +3 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Bowling Green +0.88 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Bowling Green +2.12 | |
| TO Points Margin | Bowling Green +12.6 points | |
| Situational | Bowling Green | Maryland |
| Q1 S&P | 0.524 | 0.528 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.567 | 0.658 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.677 | 0.593 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.827 | 0.604 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.673 | 0.605 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.621 | 0.599 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.610 | 0.458 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Bowling Green by 47.9 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Bowling Green by 21 | ||
I took my eye off this game around halftime. So did Maryland, evidently. The Terps led 13-6 after two quarters and were replacing their QB and allowing 28 points in the fourth.
When you're playing against an offense like BGSU's -- and it's looking like, in Dino Babers' second year, with a healthy Matt Johnson leading the show, the Falcons are now weaponized and terrifying -- you cannot be inefficient, and if you're going to turn the ball over, you cannot do it quickly. Your defense is going to wear down.
Granted, BGSU helped Maryland out early. The Falcons missed two field goals and turned the ball over on downs twice in their first seven possessions. Meanwhile, William Likely's punt return score and muffed punt assured that Maryland's D had to leave the field and immediately come back on, and Caleb Rowe's two turnovers in three plays finished the Terps off.