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Bowling Green 48, Maryland 27: Quick Terp possessions led to exhausted Terp defense

Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

Bowling Green 48, Maryland 27

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Bowling Green Maryland Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 105 59
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 94.5%
Avg Starting FP 34.3 30.8 29.7
Possessions 16 14
Scoring Opportunities*
12 4
Points Per Opportunity 4.08 5.00 4.80
Leverage Rate** 72.5% 59.7% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.655 0.585 0.584
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Bowling Green Maryland
Total 66.8 31.5
Rushing 20.8 14.0
Passing 46.0 17.5
Success Rate (what's this?) Bowling Green Maryland Nat'l Avg
All (close) 48.0% 33.3% 41.3%
Rushing (close) 51.3% 38.5% 42.5%
Passing (close) 45.8% 29.0% 40.1%
Standard Downs 50.7% 38.2% 46.8%
Passing Downs 40.7% 26.1% 29.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Bowling Green Maryland Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.35 1.59 1.27
Rushing (close) 0.88 1.40 1.06
Passing (close) 1.70 1.80 1.49
Standard Downs 1.01 1.04 1.10
Passing Downs 2.48 2.80 1.83
Line Stats Bowling Green Maryland Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.62 3.27 2.80
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 7.5% 0.0% 5.1%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 5.3% 0.0% 6.6%
Turnovers Bowling Green Maryland
Turnovers 1 4
Turnover Points (what's this?) 3.7 16.3
Turnover Margin Bowling Green +3
Exp. TO Margin Bowling Green +0.88
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Bowling Green +2.12
TO Points Margin Bowling Green +12.6 points
Situational Bowling Green Maryland
Q1 S&P 0.524 0.528
Q2 S&P 0.567 0.658
Q3 S&P 0.677 0.593
Q4 S&P 0.827 0.604
1st Down S&P 0.673 0.605
2nd Down S&P 0.621 0.599
3rd Down S&P 0.610 0.458
Projected Scoring Margin: Bowling Green by 47.9
Actual Scoring Margin: Bowling Green by 21

I took my eye off this game around halftime. So did Maryland, evidently. The Terps led 13-6 after two quarters and were replacing their QB and allowing 28 points in the fourth.

When you're playing against an offense like BGSU's -- and it's looking like, in Dino Babers' second year, with a healthy Matt Johnson leading the show, the Falcons are now weaponized and terrifying -- you cannot be inefficient, and if you're going to turn the ball over, you cannot do it quickly. Your defense is going to wear down.

Granted, BGSU helped Maryland out early. The Falcons missed two field goals and turned the ball over on downs twice in their first seven possessions. Meanwhile, William Likely's punt return score and muffed punt assured that Maryland's D had to leave the field and immediately come back on, and Caleb Rowe's two turnovers in three plays finished the Terps off.