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In May at SB Nation, I posted preseason S&P+ projections based on certain factors.
Below you'll find my initial S&P+ projections for 2015 (initial, because there will be an update right before the season with updated starter numbers and whatnot).
The process is to come up with three sets of projections based on five-year performance (weighted to make 2014 more important than 2013, and so on), the likely changes associated with each team's returning starter figures, and the likely changes associated with each team's two-year recruiting averages (recruiting rankings are relatively solid predictive stats).
I blend them together based on what has produced the best results in the past. That means recent history carrying the most weight and recruiting carrying the least.
After fussing with factor weights a bit more and adjusting teams' returning starter figures, it's time to post updated projections. And the new No. 1 team is probably the right team to be starting the season No. 1.
Team | Conference | Percentile | Proj. S&P+ | Rk | Proj. Off | Rk | Proj. Def | Rk | May Rk | Change |
Ohio State | Big Ten | 99.0% | 27.1 | 1 | 46.7 | 1 | 19.6 | 14 | 2 | 1 |
Alabama | SEC | 98.2% | 24.5 | 2 | 39.3 | 11 | 14.8 | 5 | 1 | -1 |
Ole Miss | SEC | 96.3% | 20.9 | 3 | 34.5 | 32 | 13.6 | 1 | 6 | 3 |
Oregon | Pac-12 | 96.3% | 20.9 | 4 | 45.7 | 2 | 24.8 | 39 | 4 | 0 |
Georgia | SEC | 96.2% | 20.8 | 5 | 41.8 | 4 | 21.1 | 17 | 3 | -2 |
UCLA | Pac-12 | 95.3% | 19.6 | 6 | 41.6 | 5 | 22.0 | 21 | 7 | 1 |
Auburn | SEC | 95.3% | 19.6 | 7 | 40.8 | 7 | 21.2 | 18 | 5 | -2 |
Arkansas | SEC | 95.2% | 19.4 | 8 | 38.3 | 15 | 18.9 | 12 | 12 | 4 |
LSU | SEC | 94.0% | 18.2 | 9 | 35.2 | 28 | 17.0 | 7 | 8 | -1 |
Michigan State | Big Ten | 93.6% | 17.8 | 10 | 39.8 | 9 | 22.0 | 23 | 9 | -1 |
Oklahoma | Big 12 | 92.8% | 17.1 | 11 | 39.3 | 12 | 22.2 | 26 | 10 | -1 |
USC | Pac-12 | 92.1% | 16.5 | 12 | 38.9 | 13 | 22.5 | 28 | 13 | 1 |
Baylor | Big 12 | 91.8% | 16.2 | 13 | 41.0 | 6 | 24.7 | 38 | 14 | 1 |
Tennessee | SEC | 91.4% | 16.0 | 14 | 33.7 | 35 | 17.7 | 9 | 20 | 6 |
TCU | Big 12 | 90.7% | 15.5 | 15 | 37.7 | 17 | 22.3 | 27 | 18 | 3 |
Notre Dame | Ind | 90.4% | 15.3 | 16 | 37.8 | 16 | 22.5 | 29 | 16 | 0 |
Clemson | ACC | 89.8% | 14.9 | 17 | 28.9 | 59 | 14.1 | 3 | 15 | -2 |
Stanford | Pac-12 | 89.6% | 14.7 | 18 | 35.2 | 27 | 20.5 | 16 | 11 | -7 |
Georgia Tech | ACC | 89.1% | 14.4 | 19 | 41.9 | 3 | 27.5 | 57 | 19 | 0 |
Florida State | ACC | 88.9% | 14.3 | 20 | 36.3 | 23 | 22.0 | 25 | 17 | -3 |
Texas A&M | SEC | 88.7% | 14.1 | 21 | 39.8 | 8 | 25.7 | 44 | 22 | 1 |
Mississippi State | SEC | 88.4% | 14.0 | 22 | 37.0 | 20 | 23.1 | 32 | 21 | -1 |
Arizona State | Pac-12 | 86.2% | 12.7 | 23 | 36.3 | 24 | 23.5 | 33 | 24 | 1 |
Missouri | SEC | 85.1% | 12.1 | 24 | 31.9 | 39 | 19.8 | 15 | 23 | -1 |
Boise State | MWC | 85.0% | 12.1 | 25 | 37.7 | 18 | 25.6 | 43 | 27 | 2 |
Team | Conference | Percentile | Proj. S&P+ | Rk | Proj. Off | Rk | Proj. Def | Rk | May Rk | Change |
Miami | ACC | 84.1% | 11.7 | 26 | 33.7 | 36 | 22.0 | 24 | 28 | 2 |
Virginia Tech | ACC | 84.0% | 11.6 | 27 | 27.4 | 74 | 15.8 | 6 | 26 | -1 |
Wisconsin | Big Ten | 83.8% | 11.5 | 28 | 34.3 | 33 | 22.8 | 30 | 25 | -3 |
Texas | Big 12 | 81.4% | 10.4 | 29 | 27.6 | 72 | 17.1 | 8 | 36 | 7 |
Michigan | Big Ten | 81.2% | 10.4 | 30 | 28.8 | 61 | 18.4 | 11 | 35 | 5 |
Penn State | Big Ten | 80.0% | 9.8 | 31 | 23.8 | 94 | 13.9 | 2 | 37 | 6 |
Nebraska | Big Ten | 79.2% | 9.5 | 32 | 35.0 | 30 | 25.5 | 41 | 30 | -2 |
South Carolina | SEC | 79.0% | 9.4 | 33 | 35.4 | 26 | 26.0 | 47 | 31 | -2 |
Louisville | ACC | 76.8% | 8.6 | 34 | 27.9 | 70 | 19.4 | 13 | 32 | -2 |
Pittsburgh | ACC | 76.5% | 8.4 | 35 | 37.0 | 21 | 28.6 | 65 | 38 | 3 |
Arizona | Pac-12 | 76.2% | 8.3 | 36 | 34.2 | 34 | 25.9 | 46 | 34 | -2 |
Florida | SEC | 75.2% | 7.9 | 37 | 22.0 | 108 | 14.1 | 4 | 29 | -8 |
Kansas State | Big 12 | 74.7% | 7.8 | 38 | 35.2 | 29 | 27.4 | 56 | 33 | -5 |
West Virginia | Big 12 | 74.7% | 7.8 | 39 | 31.5 | 43 | 23.7 | 35 | 40 | 1 |
North Carolina | ACC | 73.1% | 7.2 | 40 | 39.7 | 10 | 32.5 | 83 | 44 | 4 |
Utah | Pac-12 | 71.1% | 6.5 | 41 | 29.6 | 54 | 23.1 | 31 | 39 | -2 |
Virginia | ACC | 69.9% | 6.1 | 42 | 27.5 | 73 | 21.4 | 19 | 46 | 4 |
Marshall | CUSA | 69.5% | 5.9 | 43 | 36.0 | 25 | 30.0 | 71 | 41 | -2 |
NC State | ACC | 67.7% | 5.4 | 44 | 32.6 | 38 | 27.2 | 53 | 48 | 4 |
Minnesota | Big Ten | 66.4% | 4.9 | 45 | 28.9 | 58 | 24.0 | 36 | 42 | -3 |
Kentucky | SEC | 63.8% | 4.1 | 46 | 29.2 | 56 | 25.0 | 40 | 52 | 6 |
Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 63.8% | 4.1 | 47 | 29.9 | 51 | 25.8 | 45 | 43 | -4 |
Cincinnati | American | 63.5% | 4.0 | 48 | 34.8 | 31 | 30.8 | 74 | 47 | -1 |
BYU | Ind | 63.5% | 4.0 | 49 | 31.6 | 42 | 27.6 | 59 | 45 | -4 |
California | Pac-12 | 62.0% | 3.6 | 50 | 36.6 | 22 | 33.0 | 89 | 51 | 1 |
Team | Conference | Percentile | Proj. S&P+ | Rk | Proj. Off | Rk | Proj. Def | Rk | May Rk | Change |
Texas Tech | Big 12 | 61.7% | 3.5 | 51 | 38.5 | 14 | 35.0 | 106 | 53 | 2 |
Boston College | ACC | 59.5% | 2.8 | 52 | 26.5 | 79 | 23.7 | 34 | 49 | -3 |
Maryland | Big Ten | 59.1% | 2.7 | 53 | 28.1 | 67 | 25.5 | 42 | 56 | 3 |
Louisiana Tech | CUSA | 58.2% | 2.4 | 54 | 28.9 | 60 | 26.5 | 49 | 50 | -4 |
Duke | ACC | 56.1% | 1.8 | 55 | 28.2 | 66 | 26.4 | 48 | 54 | -1 |
Washington State | Pac-12 | 53.2% | 0.9 | 56 | 33.5 | 37 | 32.6 | 84 | 66 | 10 |
Illinois | Big Ten | 50.5% | 0.1 | 57 | 28.7 | 62 | 28.5 | 64 | 63 | 6 |
Temple | American | 50.2% | 0.1 | 58 | 18.5 | 118 | 18.4 | 10 | 64 | 6 |
Iowa | Big Ten | 49.1% | -0.3 | 59 | 27.0 | 77 | 27.3 | 54 | 57 | -2 |
Navy | AAC | 48.6% | -0.4 | 60 | 31.7 | 41 | 32.1 | 81 | 58 | -2 |
Western Kentucky | CUSA | 47.8% | -0.6 | 61 | 37.4 | 19 | 38.1 | 114 | 61 | 0 |
Northwestern | Big Ten | 47.8% | -0.7 | 62 | 21.3 | 111 | 22.0 | 22 | 62 | 0 |
Western Michigan | MAC | 46.2% | -1.1 | 63 | 31.9 | 40 | 33.1 | 90 | 65 | 2 |
Washington | Pac-12 | 46.1% | -1.2 | 64 | 25.5 | 84 | 26.7 | 51 | 55 | -9 |
Utah State | MWC | 45.6% | -1.3 | 65 | 25.3 | 86 | 26.6 | 50 | 59 | -6 |
Central Florida | American | 45.1% | -1.4 | 66 | 22.6 | 105 | 24.0 | 37 | 60 | -6 |
Purdue | Big Ten | 44.9% | -1.5 | 67 | 25.9 | 81 | 27.4 | 55 | 74 | 7 |
Memphis | American | 42.5% | -2.2 | 68 | 25.7 | 82 | 27.9 | 62 | 68 | 0 |
Colorado | Pac-12 | 41.7% | -2.5 | 69 | 31.1 | 46 | 33.6 | 92 | 75 | 6 |
Rutgers | Big Ten | 41.2% | -2.6 | 70 | 29.6 | 52 | 32.2 | 82 | 79 | 9 |
Arkansas State | Sun Belt | 40.6% | -2.8 | 71 | 31.5 | 44 | 34.2 | 99 | 71 | 0 |
Georgia Southern | Sun Belt | 39.7% | -3.0 | 72 | 30.9 | 48 | 34.0 | 96 | 67 | -5 |
Colorado State | MWC | 39.4% | -3.1 | 73 | 31.4 | 45 | 34.5 | 102 | 72 | -1 |
Indiana | Big Ten | 38.4% | -3.4 | 74 | 28.3 | 64 | 31.8 | 77 | 81 | 7 |
Toledo | MAC | 37.7% | -3.7 | 75 | 31.0 | 47 | 34.6 | 104 | 69 | -6 |
Team | Conference | Percentile | Proj. S&P+ | Rk | Proj. Off | Rk | Proj. Def | Rk | May Rk | Change |
San Diego State | MWC | 37.1% | -3.8 | 76 | 25.1 | 88 | 28.9 | 66 | 77 | 1 |
Vanderbilt | SEC | 37.0% | -3.9 | 77 | 23.0 | 101 | 26.8 | 52 | 83 | 6 |
East Carolina | American | 35.5% | -4.3 | 78 | 28.3 | 65 | 32.6 | 85 | 80 | 2 |
Syracuse | ACC | 35.4% | -4.4 | 79 | 23.3 | 97 | 27.7 | 60 | 73 | -6 |
Oregon State | Pac-12 | 35.1% | -4.5 | 80 | 29.6 | 53 | 34.0 | 98 | 70 | -10 |
Air Force | MWC | 33.3% | -5.0 | 81 | 27.7 | 71 | 32.7 | 86 | 76 | -5 |
Northern Illinois | MAC | 31.8% | -5.5 | 82 | 25.3 | 85 | 30.9 | 75 | 78 | -4 |
Nevada | MWC | 30.3% | -6.0 | 83 | 26.8 | 78 | 32.8 | 88 | 82 | -1 |
Middle Tennessee | CUSA | 29.4% | -6.3 | 84 | 28.5 | 63 | 34.8 | 105 | 87 | 3 |
UL-Lafayette | Sun Belt | 28.8% | -6.5 | 85 | 28.1 | 68 | 34.6 | 103 | 84 | -1 |
Iowa State | Big 12 | 28.5% | -6.6 | 86 | 29.1 | 57 | 35.7 | 109 | 86 | 0 |
Rice | CUSA | 26.4% | -7.4 | 87 | 27.1 | 76 | 34.5 | 101 | 88 | 1 |
Houston | American | 24.6% | -8.0 | 88 | 21.7 | 109 | 29.7 | 70 | 85 | -3 |
Tulane | American | 24.2% | -8.2 | 89 | 19.6 | 115 | 27.8 | 61 | 92 | 3 |
Wake Forest | ACC | 22.5% | -8.8 | 90 | 13.1 | 127 | 21.9 | 20 | 89 | -1 |
Central Michigan | MAC | 21.9% | -9.1 | 91 | 23.1 | 100 | 32.1 | 80 | 91 | 0 |
Ohio | MAC | 20.3% | -9.7 | 92 | 22.1 | 107 | 31.8 | 79 | 96 | 4 |
South Florida | American | 19.8% | -9.9 | 93 | 19.2 | 116 | 29.1 | 68 | 90 | -3 |
Florida Atlantic | CUSA | 19.7% | -10.0 | 94 | 25.5 | 83 | 35.5 | 108 | 101 | 7 |
Kent State | MAC | 19.5% | -10.0 | 95 | 20.1 | 113 | 30.1 | 73 | 97 | 2 |
Fresno State | MWC | 19.3% | -10.1 | 96 | 23.9 | 92 | 34.0 | 97 | 93 | -3 |
Appalachian State | Sun Belt | 19.3% | -10.1 | 97 | 23.5 | 95 | 33.7 | 93 | 103 | 6 |
New Mexico | MWC | 19.3% | -10.1 | 98 | 30.1 | 50 | 40.2 | 123 | 104 | 6 |
Bowling Green | MAC | 19.1% | -10.2 | 99 | 28.0 | 69 | 38.3 | 116 | 94 | -5 |
UTEP | CUSA | 18.8% | -10.3 | 100 | 22.5 | 106 | 32.8 | 87 | 99 | -1 |
Team | Conference | Percentile | Proj. S&P+ | Rk | Proj. Off | Rk | Proj. Def | Rk | May Rk | Change |
UL-Monroe | Sun Belt | 17.8% | -10.8 | 101 | 17.7 | 122 | 28.5 | 63 | 102 | 1 |
Kansas | Big 12 | 17.7% | -10.8 | 102 | 20.0 | 114 | 30.9 | 76 | 95 | -7 |
San Jose State | MWC | 17.4% | -10.9 | 103 | 22.8 | 102 | 33.8 | 94 | 105 | 2 |
Ball State | MAC | 16.8% | -11.3 | 104 | 24.6 | 89 | 35.9 | 110 | 100 | -4 |
Old Dominion | CUSA | 16.2% | -11.5 | 105 | 30.9 | 49 | 42.4 | 127 | 110 | 5 |
Florida International | CUSA | 16.2% | -11.5 | 106 | 16.0 | 123 | 27.6 | 58 | 107 | 1 |
Southern Miss | CUSA | 16.1% | -11.6 | 107 | 24.4 | 91 | 35.9 | 111 | 108 | 1 |
Tulsa | American | 16.0% | -11.6 | 108 | 27.4 | 75 | 39.0 | 120 | 106 | -2 |
South Alabama | Sun Belt | 16.0% | -11.6 | 109 | 18.5 | 119 | 30.1 | 72 | 98 | -11 |
Texas State | Sun Belt | 15.6% | -11.8 | 110 | 26.4 | 80 | 38.2 | 115 | 109 | -1 |
Georgia State | Sun Belt | 14.5% | -12.4 | 111 | 25.2 | 87 | 37.5 | 113 | 111 | 0 |
Akron | MAC | 13.5% | -12.9 | 112 | 18.9 | 117 | 31.8 | 78 | 112 | 0 |
Miami (Ohio) | MAC | 12.4% | -13.5 | 113 | 20.4 | 112 | 33.9 | 95 | 113 | 0 |
Wyoming | MWC | 11.8% | -13.8 | 114 | 23.2 | 99 | 37.0 | 112 | 115 | 1 |
Connecticut | American | 10.9% | -14.4 | 115 | 14.6 | 126 | 29.0 | 67 | 114 | -1 |
Idaho | Sun Belt | 10.7% | -14.5 | 116 | 24.5 | 90 | 39.0 | 119 | 116 | 0 |
Massachusetts | MAC | 10.2% | -14.8 | 117 | 23.8 | 93 | 38.7 | 118 | 119 | 2 |
Charlotte | CUSA | 9.5% | -15.3 | 118 | 29.2 | 55 | 44.5 | 128 | 120 | 2 |
SMU | American | 9.0% | -15.7 | 119 | 17.9 | 121 | 33.6 | 91 | 117 | -2 |
UNLV | MWC | 8.1% | -16.4 | 120 | 23.2 | 98 | 39.6 | 121 | 123 | 3 |
Hawaii | MWC | 7.2% | -17.1 | 121 | 17.9 | 120 | 35.0 | 107 | 118 | -3 |
Troy | Sun Belt | 6.7% | -17.5 | 122 | 22.6 | 104 | 40.1 | 122 | 124 | 2 |
Buffalo | MAC | 6.2% | -17.9 | 123 | 23.3 | 96 | 41.3 | 125 | 122 | -1 |
New Mexico State | Sun Belt | 5.1% | -19.1 | 124 | 22.7 | 103 | 41.8 | 126 | 127 | 3 |
North Texas | CUSA | 4.6% | -19.7 | 125 | 14.8 | 125 | 34.5 | 100 | 125 | 0 |
Army | Ind | 4.6% | -19.7 | 126 | 21.6 | 110 | 41.2 | 124 | 126 | 0 |
UTSA | CUSA | 4.3% | -20.1 | 127 | 9.0 | 128 | 29.1 | 69 | 121 | -6 |
Eastern Michigan | MAC | 2.3% | -23.2 | 128 | 15.2 | 124 | 38.5 | 117 | 128 | 0 |
Your top 10 projected offenses: Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia Tech, Georgia, UCLA (!), Baylor, Auburn, Texas A&M, Michigan State, North Carolina.
Your top 10 projected defenses: Ole Miss, Penn State, Clemson, Florida, Alabama, Virginia Tech, LSU, Texas, Tennessee, Temple (!).
We'll start discussing win projections in the days to come, but I figured you'd just want the meat in this post.
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