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Week 10 S&P+ picks

Jamie Squire/Getty Images

This has been a funny year.

  • Week 1: 20-17 (54%)
  • Week 2: 25-26 (49%)
  • Week 3: 28-23-1 (55%)
  • Week 4: 29-21-2 (57%)
  • Week 5: 27-28 (49%)
  • Week 6: 27-28 (49%)
  • Week 7: 20-36 (36%)
  • Week 8: 33-21-1 (61%)
  • Week 9: 25-26-1 (49%)
  • OVERALL: 234-226-4 (51%)

After a good September, S&P+ had basically 50-50 weeks in both Weeks 5 and 6 ... then cratered ... then surged ... then went back to 50-50. I've said before that I'm okay as long as S&P+ is as good as or (preferably) a little better than Vegas because that confirms that the ratings are good enough to use in my writing. But ... this is adhering to that philosophy awfully tightly. Odd.

Win probabilities

Meanwhile, the win probabilities are evidently unstoppable. I'm still expecting some regression to the mean in the 70+% department, but it hasn't happened yet.

Win Prob. Range Last Week Overall Win%
50-59% 11-3 50-46 52.1%
60-69% 2-4 80-30 72.7%
70-79% 13-0 99-16 86.1%
80-89% 10-2 98-20 83.1%
90-99% 9-0 129-3 97.7%

Teams given at least a 70% chance of winning a given game are winning 89% of the time. That's pretty ridiculous.

Tuesday

No team has a greater claim to "Your numbers don't matter" than NIU when the MAC title is on the line. Toledo has been by far the better team so far this year ... and NIU goes to Toledo and wins.

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
8:00 PM ESPN2 Northern Illinois at Toledo -7 Toledo (31.5-19.6) 11.8 75.3% Toledo

Wednesday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
8:00 PM ESPN2 Ohio at Bowling Green -20.5 Bowling Green (38.8-24.7) 14.1 79.3% Ohio

Thursday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
7:00 PM ESPN3 Buffalo at Kent State +2.5 Buffalo (22.8-20.4) 2.4 55.4% Kent State
7:30 PM ESPNU Arkansas State at Appalachian State -10.5 Appalachian State (35.0-19.0) 16.1 82.3% Appalachian State
7:30 PM CBSSN Ball State at Western Michigan -14.5 Western Michigan (40.1-25.5) 14.6 80.0% Western Michigan
7:30 PM FS1 Baylor at Kansas State +17 Baylor (41.6-23.5) 18.1 85.2% Baylor
9:00 PM ESPN Mississippi State at Missouri +7.5 Mississippi State (30.0-17.7) 12.3 76.1% Mississippi State
10:30 PM ESPN2 Nevada at Fresno State +4 Nevada (28.8-28.2) 0.6 51.4% Fresno State

Friday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
8:00 PM CBSSN Rice at UTEP +7 Rice (35.8-30.1) 5.7 62.9% UTEP
8:00 PM ESPN2 Temple at SMU +14 Temple (36.7-19.8) 16.9 83.5% Temple
11:30 PM CBSSN BYU at San Jose State +13.5 BYU (36.3-23.1) 13.2 77.7% San Jose State

Saturday

Time
(ET)
TV Game Spread
(Home)
Proj. Winner Proj. Margin Win Prob. Pick
(Spread)
12:00 PM CBSSN Akron at Massachusetts -2.5 Massachusetts (28.5-27.3) 1.3 52.9% Akron
12:00 PM ESPNN Central Florida at Tulsa -16.5 Tulsa (40.3-17.7) 22.6 90.4% Tulsa
12:00 PM ASN Charlotte at Florida International -18 Florida International (31.5-17.7) 13.8 78.8% Charlotte
12:00 PM ESPN2 Duke at North Carolina -8 Duke (26.2-25.4) 0.8 51.8% Duke
12:00 PM FSN affiliates Florida Atlantic at Western Kentucky -24 Western Kentucky (40.8-22.2) 18.6 85.9% Florida Atlantic
12:00 PM BTN Illinois at Purdue +2.5 Illinois (26.6-21.6) 5.0 61.3% Illinois
12:00 PM SECN Kentucky at Georgia -14 Georgia (36.2-19.1) 17.1 83.8% Georgia
12:00 PM ABC Notre Dame at Pittsburgh +8.5 Notre Dame (35.1-25.5) 9.6 71.1% Notre Dame
12:00 PM ESPNU Penn State at Northwestern -2.5 Penn State (22.0-20.8) 1.3 52.9% Penn State
12:00 PM FS1 Texas Tech at West Virginia -8.5 West Virginia (43.8-29.2) 14.6 80.0% West Virginia
12:00 PM ESPN Vanderbilt at Florida -21 Florida (32.4-11.3) 21.1 88.9% Florida
12:30 PM ESPN3 NC State at Boston College +4 NC State (21.0-20.7) 0.3 50.6% Boston College
12:30 PM ESPN3 Syracuse at Louisville -14.5 Louisville (33.5-19.1) 14.3 79.6% Syracuse
1:00 PM Pac-12 Stanford at Colorado +16 Stanford (40.1-21.1) 19.0 86.3% Stanford
2:00 PM ESPN3 UL-Lafayette at Georgia State +3.5 UL-Lafayette (32.1-31.8) 0.3 50.8% Georgia State
2:30 PM ESPN3 Eastern Michigan at Miami-OH -5 Eastern Michigan (32.8-28.6) 4.2 59.6% Eastern Michigan
3:00 PM ESPN3 Colorado State at Wyoming +11.5 Colorado State (36.0-26.4) 9.6 71.0% Wyoming
3:00 PM ESPN3 Idaho at South Alabama -10 South Alabama (34.4-29.7) 4.7 60.6% Idaho
3:00 PM ESPN3 Virginia at Miami-FL Miami-FL (36.9-24.2) 12.7 76.9%
3:30 PM FS1 Arizona State at Washington State -2.5 Washington State (32.7-29.5) 3.2 57.3% Washington State
3:30 PM CBS Arkansas at Ole Miss -11 Ole Miss (37.2-25.8) 11.4 74.5% Ole Miss
3:30 PM ESPNU Army at Air Force -17 Air Force (40.6-18.5) 22.1 89.9% Air Force
3:30 PM ESPN2 Cincinnati at Houston -8 Houston (37.9-26.1) 11.8 75.1% Houston
3:30 PM ABC Florida State at Clemson -12.5 Clemson (36.3-19.9) 16.3 82.8% Clemson
3:30 PM ESPN Iowa at Indiana +7 Iowa (35.4-25.0) 10.4 72.6% Iowa
3:30 PM FSN affiliates Marshall at Middle Tennessee -3 Marshall (31.4-24.1) 7.3 66.3% Marshall
3:30 PM FCS North Texas at Louisiana Tech -29.5 Louisiana Tech (51.1-11.2) 39.9 98.9% Louisiana Tech
3:30 PM BTN Rutgers at Michigan -25 Michigan (45.1-7.9) 37.2 98.4% Michigan
3:30 PM Fox TCU at Oklahoma State +5.5 TCU (35.4-31.0) 4.5 60.2% Oklahoma State
3:30 PM ESPN3 UL-Monroe at Troy -10 Troy (32.4-18.8) 13.6 78.4% Troy
3:30 PM CBSSN Utah State at New Mexico +14.5 Utah State (34.9-19.2) 15.7 81.8% Utah State
3:30 PM BTN Wisconsin at Maryland +11.5 Wisconsin (31.1-16.8) 14.3 79.5% Wisconsin
4:00 PM ESPNN Connecticut at Tulane +6 Connecticut (27.6-23.1) 4.5 60.2% Tulane
4:00 PM ESPN3 New Mexico State at Texas State -17 Texas State (41.7-29.7) 12.0 75.6% New Mexico State
4:00 PM SECN South Carolina at Tennessee -17 Tennessee (39.2-20.4) 18.8 86.1% Tennessee
4:30 PM Pac-12 UCLA at Oregon State +17.5 UCLA (40.2-20.1) 20.2 87.8% UCLA
6:00 PM MWC Video Hawaii at UNLV -10 UNLV (29.7-21.8) 7.9 67.6% Hawaii
7:00 PM ESPNU Iowa State at Oklahoma -25.5 Oklahoma (38.9-19.8) 19.1 86.5% Iowa State
7:00 PM ESPN Michigan State at Nebraska +6 Michigan State (32.7-27.5) 5.2 61.8% Nebraska
7:00 PM ESPN2 Navy at Memphis -7.5 Memphis (34.5-31.0) 3.5 57.9% Navy
7:00 PM ASN Old Dominion at UTSA -10 UTSA (29.8-24.8) 4.9 61.2% Old Dominion
7:30 PM SECN Auburn at Texas A&M -7.5 Texas A&M (36.0-23.3) 12.6 76.7% Texas A&M
7:30 PM CBSSN South Florida at East Carolina -4 East Carolina (28.5-27.9) 0.6 51.5% South Florida
7:30 PM Fox Utah at Washington -1.5 Washington (28.3-22.4) 5.9 63.3% Washington
8:00 PM LHN Kansas at Texas -28.5 Texas (39.4-18.1) 21.2 89.0% Kansas
8:00 PM CBS LSU at Alabama -6.5 Alabama (30.8-23.5) 7.4 66.5% Alabama
8:00 PM ABC Minnesota at Ohio State -23 Ohio State (36.2-16.0) 20.2 87.8% Minnesota
10:30 PM ESPN Arizona at USC -18 USC (46.6-22.5) 24.1 91.8% USC
10:30 PM ESPN2 California at Oregon -4.5 California (34.1-32.3) 1.8 54.1% California