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This has been a funny year.
- Week 1: 20-17 (54%)
- Week 2: 25-26 (49%)
- Week 3: 28-23-1 (55%)
- Week 4: 29-21-2 (57%)
- Week 5: 27-28 (49%)
- Week 6: 27-28 (49%)
- Week 7: 20-36 (36%)
- Week 8: 33-21-1 (61%)
- Week 9: 25-26-1 (49%)
- OVERALL: 234-226-4 (51%)
After a good September, S&P+ had basically 50-50 weeks in both Weeks 5 and 6 ... then cratered ... then surged ... then went back to 50-50. I've said before that I'm okay as long as S&P+ is as good as or (preferably) a little better than Vegas because that confirms that the ratings are good enough to use in my writing. But ... this is adhering to that philosophy awfully tightly. Odd.
Win probabilities
Meanwhile, the win probabilities are evidently unstoppable. I'm still expecting some regression to the mean in the 70+% department, but it hasn't happened yet.
| Win Prob. Range | Last Week | Overall | Win% |
| 50-59% | 11-3 | 50-46 | 52.1% |
| 60-69% | 2-4 | 80-30 | 72.7% |
| 70-79% | 13-0 | 99-16 | 86.1% |
| 80-89% | 10-2 | 98-20 | 83.1% |
| 90-99% | 9-0 | 129-3 | 97.7% |
Teams given at least a 70% chance of winning a given game are winning 89% of the time. That's pretty ridiculous.
Tuesday
No team has a greater claim to "Your numbers don't matter" than NIU when the MAC title is on the line. Toledo has been by far the better team so far this year ... and NIU goes to Toledo and wins.
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
Wednesday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 8:00 PM | ESPN2 | Ohio at Bowling Green | -20.5 | Bowling Green (38.8-24.7) | 14.1 | 79.3% | Ohio |
Thursday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Buffalo at Kent State | +2.5 | Buffalo (22.8-20.4) | 2.4 | 55.4% | Kent State |
| 7:30 PM | ESPNU | Arkansas State at Appalachian State | -10.5 | Appalachian State (35.0-19.0) | 16.1 | 82.3% | Appalachian State |
| 7:30 PM | CBSSN | Ball State at Western Michigan | -14.5 | Western Michigan (40.1-25.5) | 14.6 | 80.0% | Western Michigan |
| 7:30 PM | FS1 | Baylor at Kansas State | +17 | Baylor (41.6-23.5) | 18.1 | 85.2% | Baylor |
| 9:00 PM | ESPN | Mississippi State at Missouri | +7.5 | Mississippi State (30.0-17.7) | 12.3 | 76.1% | Mississippi State |
| 10:30 PM | ESPN2 | Nevada at Fresno State | +4 | Nevada (28.8-28.2) | 0.6 | 51.4% | Fresno State |
Friday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 8:00 PM | CBSSN | Rice at UTEP | +7 | Rice (35.8-30.1) | 5.7 | 62.9% | UTEP |
| 8:00 PM | ESPN2 | Temple at SMU | +14 | Temple (36.7-19.8) | 16.9 | 83.5% | Temple |
| 11:30 PM | CBSSN | BYU at San Jose State | +13.5 | BYU (36.3-23.1) | 13.2 | 77.7% | San Jose State |
Saturday
| Time (ET) |
TV | Game | Spread (Home) |
Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Prob. | Pick (Spread) |
| 12:00 PM | CBSSN | Akron at Massachusetts | -2.5 | Massachusetts (28.5-27.3) | 1.3 | 52.9% | Akron |
| 12:00 PM | ESPNN | Central Florida at Tulsa | -16.5 | Tulsa (40.3-17.7) | 22.6 | 90.4% | Tulsa |
| 12:00 PM | ASN | Charlotte at Florida International | -18 | Florida International (31.5-17.7) | 13.8 | 78.8% | Charlotte |
| 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | Duke at North Carolina | -8 | Duke (26.2-25.4) | 0.8 | 51.8% | Duke |
| 12:00 PM | FSN affiliates | Florida Atlantic at Western Kentucky | -24 | Western Kentucky (40.8-22.2) | 18.6 | 85.9% | Florida Atlantic |
| 12:00 PM | BTN | Illinois at Purdue | +2.5 | Illinois (26.6-21.6) | 5.0 | 61.3% | Illinois |
| 12:00 PM | SECN | Kentucky at Georgia | -14 | Georgia (36.2-19.1) | 17.1 | 83.8% | Georgia |
| 12:00 PM | ABC | Notre Dame at Pittsburgh | +8.5 | Notre Dame (35.1-25.5) | 9.6 | 71.1% | Notre Dame |
| 12:00 PM | ESPNU | Penn State at Northwestern | -2.5 | Penn State (22.0-20.8) | 1.3 | 52.9% | Penn State |
| 12:00 PM | FS1 | Texas Tech at West Virginia | -8.5 | West Virginia (43.8-29.2) | 14.6 | 80.0% | West Virginia |
| 12:00 PM | ESPN | Vanderbilt at Florida | -21 | Florida (32.4-11.3) | 21.1 | 88.9% | Florida |
| 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | NC State at Boston College | +4 | NC State (21.0-20.7) | 0.3 | 50.6% | Boston College |
| 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | Syracuse at Louisville | -14.5 | Louisville (33.5-19.1) | 14.3 | 79.6% | Syracuse |
| 1:00 PM | Pac-12 | Stanford at Colorado | +16 | Stanford (40.1-21.1) | 19.0 | 86.3% | Stanford |
| 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | UL-Lafayette at Georgia State | +3.5 | UL-Lafayette (32.1-31.8) | 0.3 | 50.8% | Georgia State |
| 2:30 PM | ESPN3 | Eastern Michigan at Miami-OH | -5 | Eastern Michigan (32.8-28.6) | 4.2 | 59.6% | Eastern Michigan |
| 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Colorado State at Wyoming | +11.5 | Colorado State (36.0-26.4) | 9.6 | 71.0% | Wyoming |
| 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Idaho at South Alabama | -10 | South Alabama (34.4-29.7) | 4.7 | 60.6% | Idaho |
| 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Virginia at Miami-FL | Miami-FL (36.9-24.2) | 12.7 | 76.9% | ||
| 3:30 PM | FS1 | Arizona State at Washington State | -2.5 | Washington State (32.7-29.5) | 3.2 | 57.3% | Washington State |
| 3:30 PM | CBS | Arkansas at Ole Miss | -11 | Ole Miss (37.2-25.8) | 11.4 | 74.5% | Ole Miss |
| 3:30 PM | ESPNU | Army at Air Force | -17 | Air Force (40.6-18.5) | 22.1 | 89.9% | Air Force |
| 3:30 PM | ESPN2 | Cincinnati at Houston | -8 | Houston (37.9-26.1) | 11.8 | 75.1% | Houston |
| 3:30 PM | ABC | Florida State at Clemson | -12.5 | Clemson (36.3-19.9) | 16.3 | 82.8% | Clemson |
| 3:30 PM | ESPN | Iowa at Indiana | +7 | Iowa (35.4-25.0) | 10.4 | 72.6% | Iowa |
| 3:30 PM | FSN affiliates | Marshall at Middle Tennessee | -3 | Marshall (31.4-24.1) | 7.3 | 66.3% | Marshall |
| 3:30 PM | FCS | North Texas at Louisiana Tech | -29.5 | Louisiana Tech (51.1-11.2) | 39.9 | 98.9% | Louisiana Tech |
| 3:30 PM | BTN | Rutgers at Michigan | -25 | Michigan (45.1-7.9) | 37.2 | 98.4% | Michigan |
| 3:30 PM | Fox | TCU at Oklahoma State | +5.5 | TCU (35.4-31.0) | 4.5 | 60.2% | Oklahoma State |
| 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | UL-Monroe at Troy | -10 | Troy (32.4-18.8) | 13.6 | 78.4% | Troy |
| 3:30 PM | CBSSN | Utah State at New Mexico | +14.5 | Utah State (34.9-19.2) | 15.7 | 81.8% | Utah State |
| 3:30 PM | BTN | Wisconsin at Maryland | +11.5 | Wisconsin (31.1-16.8) | 14.3 | 79.5% | Wisconsin |
| 4:00 PM | ESPNN | Connecticut at Tulane | +6 | Connecticut (27.6-23.1) | 4.5 | 60.2% | Tulane |
| 4:00 PM | ESPN3 | New Mexico State at Texas State | -17 | Texas State (41.7-29.7) | 12.0 | 75.6% | New Mexico State |
| 4:00 PM | SECN | South Carolina at Tennessee | -17 | Tennessee (39.2-20.4) | 18.8 | 86.1% | Tennessee |
| 4:30 PM | Pac-12 | UCLA at Oregon State | +17.5 | UCLA (40.2-20.1) | 20.2 | 87.8% | UCLA |
| 6:00 PM | MWC Video | Hawaii at UNLV | -10 | UNLV (29.7-21.8) | 7.9 | 67.6% | Hawaii |
| 7:00 PM | ESPNU | Iowa State at Oklahoma | -25.5 | Oklahoma (38.9-19.8) | 19.1 | 86.5% | Iowa State |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN | Michigan State at Nebraska | +6 | Michigan State (32.7-27.5) | 5.2 | 61.8% | Nebraska |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN2 | Navy at Memphis | -7.5 | Memphis (34.5-31.0) | 3.5 | 57.9% | Navy |
| 7:00 PM | ASN | Old Dominion at UTSA | -10 | UTSA (29.8-24.8) | 4.9 | 61.2% | Old Dominion |
| 7:30 PM | SECN | Auburn at Texas A&M | -7.5 | Texas A&M (36.0-23.3) | 12.6 | 76.7% | Texas A&M |
| 7:30 PM | CBSSN | South Florida at East Carolina | -4 | East Carolina (28.5-27.9) | 0.6 | 51.5% | South Florida |
| 7:30 PM | Fox | Utah at Washington | -1.5 | Washington (28.3-22.4) | 5.9 | 63.3% | Washington |
| 8:00 PM | LHN | Kansas at Texas | -28.5 | Texas (39.4-18.1) | 21.2 | 89.0% | Kansas |
| 8:00 PM | CBS | LSU at Alabama | -6.5 | Alabama (30.8-23.5) | 7.4 | 66.5% | Alabama |
| 8:00 PM | ABC | Minnesota at Ohio State | -23 | Ohio State (36.2-16.0) | 20.2 | 87.8% | Minnesota |
| 10:30 PM | ESPN | Arizona at USC | -18 | USC (46.6-22.5) | 24.1 | 91.8% | USC |
| 10:30 PM | ESPN2 | California at Oregon | -4.5 | California (34.1-32.3) | 1.8 | 54.1% | California |