USC 27, California 21
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|Close Rate (non-garbage time)||100.0%|
|Avg Starting FP||18.2||31.6||29.8|
|Points Per Opportunity||4.20||2.86||4.77|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
|EqPts (what's this?)||California||USC|
|Success Rate (what's this?)||California||USC||Nat'l Avg|
|IsoPPP (what's this?)||California||USC||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Stats||California||USC||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Yards/Carry (what's this?)||2.83||2.86||2.86|
|Std. Downs Sack Rt.||0.0%||7.1%||4.9%|
|Pass. Downs Sack Rt.||0.0%||9.1%||7.5%|
|Turnover Points (what's this?)||16.3||0.0|
|Turnover Margin||USC +3|
|Exp. TO Margin||USC +1.17|
|TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin)||USC +1.83|
|TO Points Margin||USC +16.3 points|
|1st Down S&P||0.605||0.638|
|2nd Down S&P||0.615||0.529|
|3rd Down S&P||0.721||0.647|
|Projected Scoring Margin: USC by 20.3|
|Actual Scoring Margin: USC by 6|
If the Trojans didn't capitalize on turnovers, I'm not so sure they would've won this game. The defense was able to hold Cal below its season averages in all of the explosiveness measures, however they allowed the Cal offense to be efficient on every level other than running the ball.
Combine this with the fact that they were unable to sack Jared Goff (although one Int was due to the pressure) and this game could've very easily gone the other way.
In my preview I'd mentioned that USC would need to prevent Cal from finishing drives, and while they were 3-for-5 in scoring on drives that went past USC's 40 yard line, the stops were a key interception by Kevon Seymour and the other was a pooch punt.
|Backs-Wide||% of Plays||Yds/Play||% of Plays||Yds/Play|
|0 backs, 5 wide||2.9%||8.0|
|1 back, 2 wide||5.7%||1.3||1.6%||13.0|
|1 back, 3 wide||41.4%||5.8||16.1%||3.6|
|1 back, 4 wide||12.9%||6.7||43.5%||5.1|
|2 backs, 2 wide||11.4%||3.8|
|2 backs, 3 wide||21.4%||7.9||38.7%||8.6|
|3 backs, 1 wide||1.4%||14.0|
|3 backs, 2 wide||2.9%||0.0|
|No Huddle?||% of Plays||Yds/Play|
|Hash||% of Plays||Yds/Play||% of Plays||Yds/Play|
|Passing||Comp Rt||Yds/Pass||Passing||Comp Rt||Yds/Pass|
|Behind Line||1-1, 5 yards||100.0%||5.0||4-4, 31 yards||100.0%||7.8|
|0 to 4||7-7, 74 yards||100.0%||10.6||3-3, 15 yards||100.0%||5.0|
|5 to 9||5-6, 40 yards||83.3%||6.7||6-6, 47 yards||100.0%||7.8|
|10 to 19||5-6, 67 yards||83.3%||11.2||7-10, 96 yards||70.0%||9.6|
|20 to 29||0-1, 0 yards||0.0%||0.0||1-3, 29 yards||33.3%||9.7|
|30-plus||1-2, 34 yards||50.0%||17.0||2-5, 59 yards||40.0%||11.8|
|Passing (no blitz)||18-21, 208 yards, 1 sacks, 9.5 yds. per att.||15-22, 187 yards, 0 sacks, 8.5 yds. per att.|
|Passing (blitz)||1-2, 12 yards, 1 sacks, 4.0 yds. per att.||8-9, 90 yards, 0 sacks, 10.0 yds. per att.|
|Reason for INC/INT||USC||California|
The Adoree' Jackson pick six came on a play where Goff was hit right as he released the ball, and his other INT was a result of Kevon Seymour reading the route and stepping in front of the WR. Cody Kessler was more of a game manager in this one, as he only attempted three passes of over 20 yards. One of the sacks probably cost USC points as it came on a 3rd-and-6 and knocked the Trojans out of field goal range. However, it was largely the fault of Ronald Jones and Tyler Pettite not picking up blitzing Cal players.
Ronald Jones was USC's most effective runner yet again with only one carry that didn't go for positive yardage and three carries over 10 yards. Tre Madden was almost as good, with two carries of negative or zero yardage and two 10+ yard carries. Justin Davis wasn't nearly as effective, with four carries of zero or negative yardage and no carries over 10 yards. The USC defense did a great job of limiting Cal's rushing attack on the edges and limiting their running game below its season averages in all of the advanced stats measures.
|Sack - in pocket||1-(-3)|
|Sack - QB fault||1-(-4)|
These two QBs are the epitome of pocket passers, so nothing to see here.