clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Study Hall: USC 27, California 21

Turnovers fuel a USC win

Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

USC 27, California 21

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics California USC Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 61 73
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 18.2 31.6 29.8
Possessions 11 10
Scoring Opportunities*
5 7
Points Per Opportunity 4.20 2.86 4.77
Leverage Rate** 78.7% 72.6% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.619 0.576 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) California USC
Total 33.0 37.0
Rushing 8.7 18.8
Passing 24.3 18.2
Success Rate (what's this?) California USC Nat'l Avg
All (close) 50.8% 41.1% 41.7%
Rushing (close) 36.7% 33.3% 42.5%
Passing (close) 64.5% 56.0% 40.8%
Standard Downs 54.2% 39.6% 47.0%
Passing Downs 38.5% 45.0% 30.3%
IsoPPP (what's this?) California USC Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.06 1.23 1.26
Rushing (close) 0.79 1.18 1.07
Passing (close) 1.21 1.30 1.47
Standard Downs 0.93 1.05 1.11
Passing Downs 1.77 1.67 1.77
Line Stats California USC Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.83 2.86 2.86
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 7.1% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 9.1% 7.5%
Turnovers California USC
Turnovers 3 0
Turnover Points (what's this?) 16.3 0.0
Turnover Margin USC +3
Exp. TO Margin USC +1.17
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) USC +1.83
TO Points Margin USC +16.3 points
Situational California USC
Q1 S&P 0.697 0.652
Q2 S&P 0.441 0.611
Q3 S&P 0.754 0.601
Q4 S&P 0.559 0.461
1st Down S&P 0.605 0.638
2nd Down S&P 0.615 0.529
3rd Down S&P 0.721 0.647
Projected Scoring Margin: USC by 20.3
Actual Scoring Margin: USC by 6

If the Trojans didn't capitalize on turnovers, I'm not so sure they would've won this game. The defense was able to hold Cal below its season averages in all of the explosiveness measures, however they allowed the Cal offense to be efficient on every level other than running the ball.

Combine this with the fact that they were unable to sack Jared Goff (although one Int was due to the pressure) and this game could've very easily gone the other way.

In my preview I'd mentioned that USC would need to prevent Cal from finishing drives, and while they were 3-for-5 in scoring on drives that went past USC's 40 yard line, the stops were a key interception by Kevon Seymour and the other was a pooch punt.

Formations/Basics

USC California
Backs-Wide % of Plays Yds/Play % of Plays Yds/Play
0 backs, 5 wide 2.9% 8.0
1 back, 2 wide 5.7% 1.3 1.6% 13.0
1 back, 3 wide 41.4% 5.8 16.1% 3.6
1 back, 4 wide 12.9% 6.7 43.5% 5.1
2 backs, 2 wide 11.4% 3.8
2 backs, 3 wide 21.4% 7.9 38.7% 8.6
3 backs, 1 wide 1.4% 14.0
3 backs, 2 wide 2.9% 0.0
No Huddle? % of Plays Yds/Play
USC 100.0% 5.9
California 100.0% 6.4
USC California
Hash % of Plays Yds/Play % of Plays Yds/Play
Left 41.4% 6.3 45.2% 5.3
Middle 24.3% 7.0 9.7% 8.2
Right 34.3% 4.5 45.2% 7.0

Passing

USC California
Passing Comp Rt Yds/Pass Passing Comp Rt Yds/Pass
Behind Line 1-1, 5 yards 100.0% 5.0 4-4, 31 yards 100.0% 7.8
0 to 4 7-7, 74 yards 100.0% 10.6 3-3, 15 yards 100.0% 5.0
5 to 9 5-6, 40 yards 83.3% 6.7 6-6, 47 yards 100.0% 7.8
10 to 19 5-6, 67 yards 83.3% 11.2 7-10, 96 yards 70.0% 9.6
20 to 29 0-1, 0 yards 0.0% 0.0 1-3, 29 yards 33.3% 9.7
30-plus 1-2, 34 yards 50.0% 17.0 2-5, 59 yards 40.0% 11.8
USC California
% Blitz: 12.0% 29.0%
Avg. Rushers 4.1 4.3
Passing (no blitz) 18-21, 208 yards, 1 sacks, 9.5 yds. per att. 15-22, 187 yards, 0 sacks, 8.5 yds. per att.
Passing (blitz) 1-2, 12 yards, 1 sacks, 4.0 yds. per att. 8-9, 90 yards, 0 sacks, 10.0 yds. per att.
Reason for INC/INT USC California
QB Fault 3 3
Good Defense 0 2
WR Fault 1 2

The Adoree' Jackson pick six came on a play where Goff was hit right as he released the ball, and his other INT was a result of Kevon Seymour reading the route and stepping in front of the WR. Cody Kessler was more of a game manager in this one, as he only attempted three passes of over 20 yards. One of the sacks probably cost USC points as it came on a 3rd-and-6 and knocked the Trojans out of field goal range. However, it was largely the fault of Ronald Jones and Tyler Pettite not picking up blitzing Cal players.

Rushing

USC California
Rush-Yds YPC Rush-Yds YPC
To Edge 13-35 2.7 8-10 1.3
Toward Tackle 10-53 5.3 12-65 5.4
Up Middle 13-73 5.6 6-19 3.2

Ronald Jones was USC's most effective runner yet again with only one carry that didn't go for positive yardage and three carries over 10 yards. Tre Madden was almost as good, with two carries of negative or zero yardage and two 10+ yard carries. Justin Davis wasn't nearly as effective, with four carries of zero or negative yardage and no carries over 10 yards. The USC defense did a great job of limiting Cal's rushing attack on the edges and limiting their running game below its season averages in all of the advanced stats measures.

QB Activity

USC California
QB Move Rushes-Yds Passes-Yds Sacks-Yds Rushes-Yds Passes-Yds Sacks-Yds
Rollout 1-6
Sack - in pocket 1-(-3)
Sack - QB fault 1-(-4)

These two QBs are the epitome of pocket passers, so nothing to see here.