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UCLA 35, Colorado 31: How? HOW?

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Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

UCLA 35, Colorado 31

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Colorado UCLA Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 114 59
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 28.3 20.0 29.8
Possessions 14 13
Scoring Opportunities*
8 4
Points Per Opportunity 2.88 7.00 4.77
Leverage Rate** 74.6% 62.7% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.565 0.644 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Colorado UCLA
Total 51.1 37.3
Rushing 23.9 13.8
Passing 27.2 23.5
Success Rate (what's this?) Colorado UCLA Nat'l Avg
All (close) 46.5% 33.9% 41.7%
Rushing (close) 56.4% 32.0% 42.5%
Passing (close) 37.3% 35.3% 40.8%
Standard Downs 57.7% 37.8% 47.0%
Passing Downs 13.8% 27.3% 30.3%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Colorado UCLA Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.96 1.86 1.26
Rushing (close) 0.77 1.72 1.07
Passing (close) 1.23 1.96 1.47
Standard Downs 0.88 1.90 1.11
Passing Downs 1.94 1.79 1.77
Line Stats Colorado UCLA Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.25 2.40 2.86
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 3.9% 6.3% 7.5%
Turnovers Colorado UCLA
Turnovers 2 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 16.1 11.9
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Colorado +0.8
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) UCLA +0.8
TO Points Margin UCLA +4.1 points
Situational Colorado UCLA
Q1 S&P 0.499 0.608
Q2 S&P 0.576 1.804
Q3 S&P 0.584 0.743
Q4 S&P 0.585 0.478
1st Down S&P 0.615 0.645
2nd Down S&P 0.625 0.692
3rd Down S&P 0.540 0.428
Projected Scoring Margin: Colorado by 9.7
Actual Scoring Margin: UCLA by 4

Easily the weirdest box score of the week. Colorado got a return touchdown (off of a fumble), created twice as many scoring opportunities, and snapped the ball 55 more times than UCLA ... and lost.

How? How in the hell does this happen? It happened mainly because UCLA was perfect with points on the line. This was like break points in tennis. Every time the Bruins got a chance, they broke (four opportunities, four touchdowns). Meanwhile, almost every time CU got a chance, UCLA came up big. The Buffs' eight scoring opportunities resulted in just two TDs with four field goal attempts (one missed), a pick six, and a turnover on downs. The pick six was especially damaging -- it turned three to seven likely CU points into seven for UCLA instead.

Learning to win is both a cliche and a necessity. UCLA found a way here, and CU's still learning.