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Stanford 30, Washington State 28: Cardinal's drive-finishing ability (!) saves the day

James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

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Top 5 Plays

Play.Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play_Description

Pred

WPA

1

199

Washington State

4

1

27

4

FIELD_GOAL

0.523

-0.523

2

176

Washington State

2

10

55

4

Luke Falk Pass to NA NA for 0, INTERCEPTION

0.696

-0.226

3

136

Stanford

1

10

59

3

Kevin Hogan Rush for 59, TOUCHDOWN

0.832

-0.170

4

140

Washington State

2

8

80

3

Luke Falk Pass to NA NA for 0, INTERCEPTION

0.639

-0.165

5

25

Stanford

1

10

49

1

Kevin Hogan Rush for -3, FUMBLE

0.377

0.164

Stanford 30, Washington State 28

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Stanford Washington State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 59 86
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 42.8 29.7 29.8
Possessions 13 14
Scoring Opportunities*
6 8
Points Per Opportunity 5.00 3.62 4.77
Leverage Rate** 67.8% 68.6% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.587 0.562 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Stanford Washington State
Total 31.6 41.0
Rushing 25.8 10.0
Passing 5.9 31.0
Success Rate (what's this?) Stanford Washington State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 33.9% 41.9% 41.7%
Rushing (close) 41.7% 40.0% 42.5%
Passing (close) 21.7% 42.4% 40.8%
Standard Downs 42.5% 44.1% 47.0%
Passing Downs 15.8% 37.0% 30.3%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Stanford Washington State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.58 1.14 1.26
Rushing (close) 1.72 1.25 1.07
Passing (close) 1.17 1.11 1.47
Standard Downs 1.37 1.12 1.11
Passing Downs 2.79 1.20 1.77
Line Stats Stanford Washington State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.09 3.73 2.86
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 7.7% 0.0% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 30.0% 12.0% 7.5%
Turnovers Stanford Washington State
Turnovers 2 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 7.6 9.5
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Washington State +0.36
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Stanford +0.36
TO Points Margin Stanford +1.9 points
Situational Stanford Washington State
Q1 S&P 0.476 0.021
Q2 S&P 0.313 0.630
Q3 S&P 0.814 0.671
Q4 S&P 0.610 0.572
1st Down S&P 0.598 0.558
2nd Down S&P 0.662 0.555
3rd Down S&P 0.418 0.636
Projected Scoring Margin: Washington State by 7.4
Actual Scoring Margin: Stanford by 2

You had it, Cougs. You played the game you needed to play. You rendered Stanford's smoking hot offense completely inefficient. You created more scoring opportunities. You won in the trenches. You more or less broke even in the turnovers department. All of these things allowed you to overcome Stanford's field position advantage.

But you couldn't finish. Stanford, bad for so long at just that, managed three TDs and three FGs in six scoring chances; WSU attempted six field goals and scored two TDs in eight opportunities. And that was the difference.