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OSU 70, Texas Tech 53: A shootout decided by a drought

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Top 5 Plays

Play.Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play_Description

Pred

WPA

1

178

Texas Tech

3

12

20

4

Patrick Mahomes II Pass to Ian Sadler for 20, TOUCHDOWN

0.441

0.281

2

212

Oklahoma State

2

8

73

4

J.W. Walsh Pass to James Washington for 73, TOUCHDOWN

0.322

-0.251

3

207

Texas Tech

2

4

4

4

DeAndre Washington Rush for 4, TOUCHDOWN

0.145

0.229

4

193

Oklahoma State

2

3

75

4

J.W. Walsh Pass to Jalen McCleskey for 75, TOUCHDOWN

0.275

-0.210

5

190

Texas Tech

1

10

22

4

Patrick Mahomes II Pass INTERCEPTED

0.499

-0.188

Oklahoma State 70, Texas Tech 53

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Oklahoma State Texas Tech Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 79 94
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 99.4%
Avg Starting FP 30.3 26.6 29.8
Possessions 15 16
Scoring Opportunities*
9 8
Points Per Opportunity 6.22 5.62 4.77
Leverage Rate** 65.8% 67.7% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.719 0.639 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Oklahoma State Texas Tech
Total 62.9 60.2
Rushing 18.6 16.1
Passing 44.3 44.1
Success Rate (what's this?) Oklahoma State Texas Tech Nat'l Avg
All (close) 50.6% 39.8% 41.7%
Rushing (close) 50.0% 36.1% 42.5%
Passing (close) 51.1% 42.1% 40.8%
Standard Downs 53.9% 36.5% 47.0%
Passing Downs 44.4% 46.7% 30.3%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Oklahoma State Texas Tech Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.57 1.60 1.26
Rushing (close) 1.09 1.17 1.07
Passing (close) 1.93 1.84 1.47
Standard Downs 1.34 1.49 1.11
Passing Downs 2.11 1.78 1.77
Line Stats Oklahoma State Texas Tech Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.59 2.98 2.86
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 7.7% 0.0% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 8.7% 7.5%
Turnovers Oklahoma State Texas Tech
Turnovers 1 3
Turnover Points (what's this?) 4.0 16.9
Turnover Margin Oklahoma State +2
Exp. TO Margin Texas Tech +1.39
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Oklahoma State +3.39
TO Points Margin Oklahoma State +12.9 points
Situational Oklahoma State Texas Tech
Q1 S&P 0.682 0.964
Q2 S&P 0.672 0.571
Q3 S&P 0.515 0.510
Q4 S&P 1.217 0.668
1st Down S&P 0.699 0.671
2nd Down S&P 0.636 0.627
3rd Down S&P 0.877 0.656
Projected Scoring Margin: Oklahoma State by 15.5
Actual Scoring Margin: Oklahoma State by 17

Such a wild game, one that was, as strange as it sounds, decided as much by droughts as by offensive explosions. OSU's longest drought was a series of three straight punts in the third quarter (with a punt return score in the middle), but Tech was done in by a larger one. After scoring on their first five possessions, the Red Raiders scored just once in their next five drives, went three-and-out twice, and turned the ball over on downs twice. That and the punt return allowed OSU to not only stay close while enduring its own drought, but eventually surge ahead.

Tech's drought shows up in the efficiency numbers. The Red Raiders had plenty of big plays, but they had only a 40 percent success rate -- actually worse than the national average. That they still scored 53 points was ... unique.