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Top 5 Plays
|
|
Play.Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play_Description |
Pred |
WPA |
|
1 |
220 |
Duke |
5 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
KICKOFF |
0.753 |
-0.753 |
|
2 |
217 |
Duke |
1 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
Thomas Sirk Rush for 1, TOUCHDOWN |
0.490 |
0.263 |
|
3 |
1 |
Duke |
5 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
KICKOFF |
0.512 |
0.188 |
|
4 |
161 |
Miami (Florida) |
2 |
9 |
19 |
4 |
Malik Rosier Pass to Stacy Coley for 19, TOUCHDOWN |
0.282 |
-0.169 |
|
5 |
195 |
Duke |
2 |
7 |
13 |
4 |
Thomas Sirk Pass to Johnell Barnes for 13, TOUCHDOWN |
0.096 |
0.162 |
(Obviously the win probabilities might be overestimating Miami's chances on that final play. C'est la vie.)
Miami 30, Duke 27
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Duke | Miami | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 91 | 71 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 29.5 | 25.6 | 29.8 |
| Possessions | 13 | 12 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
6 | 4 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 4.00 | 6.00 | 4.77 |
| Leverage Rate** | 73.6% | 64.8% | 68.1% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.546 | 0.569 | 0.586 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Duke | Miami | |
| Total | 38.0 | 35.1 | |
| Rushing | 17.1 | 10.2 | |
| Passing | 20.9 | 24.9 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Duke | Miami | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 45.1% | 40.9% | 41.7% |
| Rushing (close) | 55.3% | 34.2% | 42.5% |
| Passing (close) | 37.7% | 50.0% | 40.8% |
| Standard Downs | 49.3% | 43.5% | 47.0% |
| Passing Downs | 33.3% | 36.0% | 30.3% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Duke | Miami | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.93 | 1.21 | 1.26 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.81 | 0.73 | 1.07 |
| Passing (close) | 1.04 | 1.66 | 1.47 |
| Standard Downs | 0.85 | 1.03 | 1.11 |
| Passing Downs | 1.23 | 1.61 | 1.77 |
| Line Stats | Duke | Miami | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.59 | 2.06 | 2.86 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 7.7% | 4.9% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 5.9% | 0.0% | 7.5% |
| Turnovers | Duke | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 5.0 | 8.0 |
| Turnover Margin | Duke +1 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Miami +0.66 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Duke +1.66 | |
| TO Points Margin | Duke +3.0 points | |
| Situational | Duke | Miami |
| Q1 S&P | 0.640 | 0.437 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.592 | 0.697 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.563 | 0.476 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.577 | 0.634 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.529 | 0.541 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.566 | 0.524 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.535 | 0.520 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Duke by 5.8 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Miami by 3 | ||
The projected and actual scoring margins were off by about nine points. I ... think I can explain six of those points...
Seriously, over the course of about 45 seconds, I went from feeling a little bad for the 'Canes for having a few 50-50 calls go against them in Duke's final touchdown drive, to feeling all sorts of bad for Duke. Crazy.