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Miami 30, Duke 27: From feeling a bit bad for the 'Canes to a lot bad for the Blue Devils

Mark Dolejs-USA TODAY Sports

dukemiamiwp

Top 5 Plays

Play.Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play_Description

Pred

WPA

1

220

Duke

5

0

0

4

KICKOFF

0.753

-0.753

2

217

Duke

1

1

1

4

Thomas Sirk Rush for 1, TOUCHDOWN

0.490

0.263

3

1

Duke

5

0

0

1

KICKOFF

0.512

0.188

4

161

Miami (Florida)

2

9

19

4

Malik Rosier Pass to Stacy Coley for 19, TOUCHDOWN

0.282

-0.169

5

195

Duke

2

7

13

4

Thomas Sirk Pass to Johnell Barnes for 13, TOUCHDOWN

0.096

0.162

(Obviously the win probabilities might be overestimating Miami's chances on that final play. C'est la vie.)

Miami 30, Duke 27

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Duke Miami Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 91 71
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 29.5 25.6 29.8
Possessions 13 12
Scoring Opportunities*
6 4
Points Per Opportunity 4.00 6.00 4.77
Leverage Rate** 73.6% 64.8% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.546 0.569 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Duke Miami
Total 38.0 35.1
Rushing 17.1 10.2
Passing 20.9 24.9
Success Rate (what's this?) Duke Miami Nat'l Avg
All (close) 45.1% 40.9% 41.7%
Rushing (close) 55.3% 34.2% 42.5%
Passing (close) 37.7% 50.0% 40.8%
Standard Downs 49.3% 43.5% 47.0%
Passing Downs 33.3% 36.0% 30.3%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Duke Miami Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.93 1.21 1.26
Rushing (close) 0.81 0.73 1.07
Passing (close) 1.04 1.66 1.47
Standard Downs 0.85 1.03 1.11
Passing Downs 1.23 1.61 1.77
Line Stats Duke Miami Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.59 2.06 2.86
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 7.7% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 5.9% 0.0% 7.5%
Turnovers Duke Miami
Turnovers 1 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 5.0 8.0
Turnover Margin Duke +1
Exp. TO Margin Miami +0.66
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Duke +1.66
TO Points Margin Duke +3.0 points
Situational Duke Miami
Q1 S&P 0.640 0.437
Q2 S&P 0.592 0.697
Q3 S&P 0.563 0.476
Q4 S&P 0.577 0.634
1st Down S&P 0.529 0.541
2nd Down S&P 0.566 0.524
3rd Down S&P 0.535 0.520
Projected Scoring Margin: Duke by 5.8
Actual Scoring Margin: Miami by 3

The projected and actual scoring margins were off by about nine points. I ... think I can explain six of those points...

Seriously, over the course of about 45 seconds, I went from feeling a little bad for the 'Canes for having a few 50-50 calls go against them in Duke's final touchdown drive, to feeling all sorts of bad for Duke. Crazy.