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Florida 27, Georgia 3: This could have been so much worse

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Top 5 Plays

Play.Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play_Description

Pred

WPA

1

70

Florida

2

10

66

2

Treon Harris Pass to Antonio Callaway for 66, TOUCHDOWN

0.731

0.157

2

35

Georgia

2

5

65

1

Faton Bauta Pass INTERCEPTED

0.458

0.134

3

40

Florida

4

8

48

1

PUNT

0.495

0.122

4

7

Florida

3

3

53

1

Treon Harris Pass to C'yontai Lewis for 25, FIRST DOWN

0.533

0.099

5

48

Georgia

4

1

36

2

Sony Michel Rush for -3

0.650

0.079

Florida 27, Georgia 3

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Florida Georgia Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 67 56
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 76.4%
Avg Starting FP 37.1 27.3 29.8
Possessions 13 12
Scoring Opportunities*
6 2
Points Per Opportunity 3.50 1.50 4.77
Leverage Rate** 59.6% 69.1% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.584 0.410 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Florida Georgia
Total 38.1 18.0
Rushing 24.5 6.1
Passing 13.6 11.9
Success Rate (what's this?) Florida Georgia Nat'l Avg
All (close) 28.9% 31.0% 41.7%
Rushing (close) 30.3% 18.8% 42.5%
Passing (close) 26.3% 38.5% 40.8%
Standard Downs 35.5% 31.0% 47.0%
Passing Downs 19.1% 30.8% 30.3%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Florida Georgia Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.77 0.81 1.26
Rushing (close) 1.35 1.02 1.07
Passing (close) 2.61 0.75 1.47
Standard Downs 1.16 0.71 1.11
Passing Downs 3.45 1.04 1.77
Line Stats Florida Georgia Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.32 1.97 2.86
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 6.3% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 16.7% 0.0% 7.5%
Turnovers Florida Georgia
Turnovers 1 5
Turnover Points (what's this?) 4.4 25.7
Turnover Margin Florida +4
Exp. TO Margin Florida +1.03
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Florida +2.97
TO Points Margin Florida +21.3 points
Situational Florida Georgia
Q1 S&P 0.465 0.378
Q2 S&P 0.715 0.405
Q3 S&P 0.590 0.439
Q4 S&P 0.737 0.614
1st Down S&P 0.656 0.471
2nd Down S&P 0.502 0.564
3rd Down S&P 0.808 0.483
Projected Scoring Margin: Florida by 41.3
Actual Scoring Margin: Florida by 24

Florida missed an early field goal, turned the ball over on downs at the UGA 11, and showed mercy by killing the clock late instead of scoring again. That's all that kept the Gators from winning by closer to 35 or 40. I still don't think Mark Richt should be fired by any means, but holy moly, has he made a mess of this season. (Also: kudos, Jim McElwain. Hell of a debut.)