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Virginia 27, Georgia Tech: Tech's post-FSU happiness didn't last very long

Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports

uvagtwp

Top 5 Plays

Play.Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play_Description

Pred

WPA

1

74

Georgia Tech

3

8

30

2

Justin Thomas Pass to Clinton Lynch for 30, TOUCHDOWN

0.595

-0.170

2

67

Virginia

2

10

39

2

Matt Johns Pass to NA NA for 0, INTERCEPTION

0.730

-0.158

3

102

Georgia Tech

1

10

73

3

Justin Thomas Rush for 3, FUMBLE

0.491

0.155

4

25

Georgia Tech

2

10

49

1

Clinton Lynch Rush for 49, TOUCHDOWN

0.601

-0.150

5

104

Virginia

2

10

30

3

Matt Johns Pass to Canaan Severin for 30, TOUCHDOWN

0.620

0.135

Virginia 27, Georgia Tech 21

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Georgia Tech Virginia Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 64 70
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 28.2 35.3 29.8
Possessions 13 12
Scoring Opportunities*
5 6
Points Per Opportunity 4.20 4.50 4.77
Leverage Rate** 64.1% 81.4% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.602 0.636 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Georgia Tech Virginia
Total 35.3 38.4
Rushing 13.0 22.8
Passing 22.3 15.6
Success Rate (what's this?) Georgia Tech Virginia Nat'l Avg
All (close) 43.8% 54.3% 41.7%
Rushing (close) 50.0% 57.1% 42.5%
Passing (close) 37.5% 50.0% 40.8%
Standard Downs 51.2% 56.1% 47.0%
Passing Downs 30.4% 46.2% 30.3%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Georgia Tech Virginia Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.26 1.01 1.26
Rushing (close) 0.81 0.95 1.07
Passing (close) 1.86 1.11 1.47
Standard Downs 0.89 0.90 1.11
Passing Downs 2.38 1.62 1.77
Line Stats Georgia Tech Virginia Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.78 3.33 2.86
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 5.9% 0.0% 7.5%
Turnovers Georgia Tech Virginia
Turnovers 2 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 9.9 5.5
Turnover Margin Virginia +1
Exp. TO Margin Virginia +1.53
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Georgia Tech +0.53
TO Points Margin Virginia +4.4 points
Situational Georgia Tech Virginia
Q1 S&P 0.748 0.711
Q2 S&P 0.560 0.458
Q3 S&P 0.462 0.727
Q4 S&P 0.624 0.617
1st Down S&P 0.609 0.601
2nd Down S&P 0.618 0.703
3rd Down S&P 0.673 0.620
Projected Scoring Margin: Virginia by 7.5
Actual Scoring Margin: Virginia by 6

What a strange year for Georgia Tech. A rebuilt running back corps can't produce many big plays (against UVA, Clinton Lynch had a 49-yard run, and otherwise Tech's run game produced 95 yards in 32 carries), and the Jackets lose a ton of close game (now four by a touchdown or less) ... and in the middle of a long streak of losses, they end a three-year ACC win streak for FSU in the most unlikely fashion. Nuclear happiness surrounded by crippling sadness.

(Side note: condolences to GT fan Matt Mills, who puts these win probability tables together.)

As for Virginia, nice result. Only one team played efficient offensive football, and it wasn't the spread option team. The Hoos are 3-5, and I guess a bowl isn't completely out of the question ...but they'll need to win at either Miami or Louisville, then take down Duke and Virginia Tech to get it done.

So I guess maybe that's just about out of the question.