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Top 5 Plays
|
|
Play.Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play_Description |
Pred |
WPA |
|
1 |
74 |
Georgia Tech |
3 |
8 |
30 |
2 |
Justin Thomas Pass to Clinton Lynch for 30, TOUCHDOWN |
0.595 |
-0.170 |
|
2 |
67 |
Virginia |
2 |
10 |
39 |
2 |
Matt Johns Pass to NA NA for 0, INTERCEPTION |
0.730 |
-0.158 |
|
3 |
102 |
Georgia Tech |
1 |
10 |
73 |
3 |
Justin Thomas Rush for 3, FUMBLE |
0.491 |
0.155 |
|
4 |
25 |
Georgia Tech |
2 |
10 |
49 |
1 |
Clinton Lynch Rush for 49, TOUCHDOWN |
0.601 |
-0.150 |
|
5 |
104 |
Virginia |
2 |
10 |
30 |
3 |
Matt Johns Pass to Canaan Severin for 30, TOUCHDOWN |
0.620 |
0.135 |
Virginia 27, Georgia Tech 21
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Georgia Tech | Virginia | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 64 | 70 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 28.2 | 35.3 | 29.8 |
| Possessions | 13 | 12 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
5 | 6 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 4.20 | 4.50 | 4.77 |
| Leverage Rate** | 64.1% | 81.4% | 68.1% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.602 | 0.636 | 0.586 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Georgia Tech | Virginia | |
| Total | 35.3 | 38.4 | |
| Rushing | 13.0 | 22.8 | |
| Passing | 22.3 | 15.6 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Georgia Tech | Virginia | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 43.8% | 54.3% | 41.7% |
| Rushing (close) | 50.0% | 57.1% | 42.5% |
| Passing (close) | 37.5% | 50.0% | 40.8% |
| Standard Downs | 51.2% | 56.1% | 47.0% |
| Passing Downs | 30.4% | 46.2% | 30.3% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Georgia Tech | Virginia | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.26 | 1.01 | 1.26 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.81 | 0.95 | 1.07 |
| Passing (close) | 1.86 | 1.11 | 1.47 |
| Standard Downs | 0.89 | 0.90 | 1.11 |
| Passing Downs | 2.38 | 1.62 | 1.77 |
| Line Stats | Georgia Tech | Virginia | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.78 | 3.33 | 2.86 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.9% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 5.9% | 0.0% | 7.5% |
| Turnovers | Georgia Tech | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 9.9 | 5.5 |
| Turnover Margin | Virginia +1 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Virginia +1.53 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Georgia Tech +0.53 | |
| TO Points Margin | Virginia +4.4 points | |
| Situational | Georgia Tech | Virginia |
| Q1 S&P | 0.748 | 0.711 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.560 | 0.458 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.462 | 0.727 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.624 | 0.617 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.609 | 0.601 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.618 | 0.703 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.673 | 0.620 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Virginia by 7.5 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Virginia by 6 | ||
What a strange year for Georgia Tech. A rebuilt running back corps can't produce many big plays (against UVA, Clinton Lynch had a 49-yard run, and otherwise Tech's run game produced 95 yards in 32 carries), and the Jackets lose a ton of close game (now four by a touchdown or less) ... and in the middle of a long streak of losses, they end a three-year ACC win streak for FSU in the most unlikely fashion. Nuclear happiness surrounded by crippling sadness.
(Side note: condolences to GT fan Matt Mills, who puts these win probability tables together.)
As for Virginia, nice result. Only one team played efficient offensive football, and it wasn't the spread option team. The Hoos are 3-5, and I guess a bowl isn't completely out of the question ...but they'll need to win at either Miami or Louisville, then take down Duke and Virginia Tech to get it done.
So I guess maybe that's just about out of the question.