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Clemson 56, NC State 41: Pack showed well, Tigers showed better

Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports

ncstclemwp

Top 5 Plays

Play.Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play_Description

Pred

WPA

1

91

Clemson

1

10

42

2

Deshaun Watson Pass to Charone Peake for 42, TOUCHDOWN

0.491

-0.151

2

74

North Carolina State

3

1

40

2

Jacoby Brissett Pass to Jaylen Samuels for 40, TOUCHDOWN

0.409

0.150

3

27

North Carolina State

3

6

45

1

Jacoby Brissett Rush for -9, FUMBLE

0.596

-0.127

4

15

Clemson

5

0

0

1

KICKOFF

0.566

0.126

5

119

North Carolina State

2

2

67

3

Jaylen Samuels Rush for 66, FIRST DOWN

0.134

0.116

Clemson 56, NC State 41

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Clemson NC State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 80 68
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 91.2%
Avg Starting FP 32.0 36.0 29.8
Possessions 16 15
Scoring Opportunities*
10 8
Points Per Opportunity 5.80 4.38 4.77
Leverage Rate** 78.2% 57.9% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.712 0.594 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Clemson NC State
Total 61.0 39.4
Rushing 23.0 17.0
Passing 38.0 22.5
Success Rate (what's this?) Clemson NC State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 51.3% 33.3% 41.7%
Rushing (close) 45.7% 35.0% 42.5%
Passing (close) 59.4% 32.4% 40.8%
Standard Downs 59.0% 42.4% 47.0%
Passing Downs 23.5% 20.8% 30.3%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Clemson NC State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.51 1.64 1.26
Rushing (close) 1.07 2.33 1.07
Passing (close) 2.00 1.23 1.47
Standard Downs 1.51 1.73 1.11
Passing Downs 1.49 1.38 1.77
Line Stats Clemson NC State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.34 2.33 2.86
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 4.4% 5.3% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 11.1% 22.2% 7.5%
Turnovers Clemson NC State
Turnovers 1 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 4.0 3.9
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin NC State +0.14
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Clemson +0.14
TO Points Margin NC State +0.1 points
Situational Clemson NC State
Q1 S&P 0.779 0.647
Q2 S&P 0.622 0.633
Q3 S&P 0.789 0.689
Q4 S&P 0.642 0.551
1st Down S&P 0.732 0.670
2nd Down S&P 0.673 0.579
3rd Down S&P 0.800 0.594
Projected Scoring Margin: Clemson by 21.5
Actual Scoring Margin: Clemson by 15

I've been in the process of talking myself into NC State, and the Wolfpack acquitted themselves relatively well in this one. And despite allowing points on each of Clemson's first four possessions, they were able to take the lead late in the first half. But Clemson's just so good ... and the Tigers might be getting better. State landed some shots, but Clemson rendered the Pack too inefficient.