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Top 5 Plays
|
|
Play.Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play_Description |
Pred |
WPA |
|
1 |
245 |
Arizona State |
2 |
3 |
3 |
5 |
Mike Bercovici Pass INTERCEPTED |
0.420 |
-0.420 |
|
2 |
240 |
Oregon |
2 |
5 |
20 |
5 |
Vernon Adams Jr. Pass to Bralon Addison for 20, TOUCHDOWN |
0.524 |
-0.381 |
|
3 |
230 |
Arizona State |
3 |
3 |
18 |
5 |
Mike Bercovici Rush for 18, TOUCHDOWN |
0.361 |
0.316 |
|
4 |
212 |
Oregon |
4 |
8 |
8 |
4 |
Vernon Adams Jr. Pass to Dwayne Stanford for 8, TOUCHDOWN |
0.837 |
-0.296 |
|
5 |
218 |
Oregon |
1 |
10 |
25 |
5 |
Vernon Adams Jr. Pass to Dwayne Stanford for 25, TOUCHDOWN |
0.524 |
-0.277 |
Oregon 61, Arizona State 55
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Arizona State | Oregon | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 108 | 69 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 37.3 | 36.7 | 29.8 |
| Possessions | 18 | 17 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
12 | 9 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 4.58 | 6.11 | 4.77 |
| Leverage Rate** | 72.2% | 63.8% | 68.1% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.661 | 0.686 | 0.586 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Arizona State | Oregon | |
| Total | 71.8 | 50.3 | |
| Rushing | 33.8 | 22.1 | |
| Passing | 38.0 | 28.2 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Arizona State | Oregon | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 48.2% | 39.1% | 41.7% |
| Rushing (close) | 54.0% | 47.8% | 42.5% |
| Passing (close) | 43.1% | 34.8% | 40.8% |
| Standard Downs | 53.9% | 43.2% | 47.0% |
| Passing Downs | 33.3% | 32.0% | 30.3% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Arizona State | Oregon | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.38 | 1.86 | 1.26 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.25 | 2.01 | 1.07 |
| Passing (close) | 1.52 | 1.76 | 1.47 |
| Standard Downs | 1.24 | 2.10 | 1.11 |
| Passing Downs | 1.97 | 1.30 | 1.77 |
| Line Stats | Arizona State | Oregon | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 4.25 | 3.22 | 2.86 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 8.1% | 9.1% | 4.9% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 9.5% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| Turnovers | Arizona State | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 10.2 | 3.5 |
| Turnover Margin | Oregon +1 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Oregon +1.02 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Arizona State +0.02 | |
| TO Points Margin | Oregon +6.7 points | |
| Situational | Arizona State | Oregon |
| Q1 S&P | 0.554 | 0.855 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.722 | 0.642 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.684 | 0.836 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.630 | 0.420 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.701 | 0.709 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.665 | 0.637 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.608 | 0.665 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Arizona State by 14.8 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Oregon by 6 | ||
Usually when there's a pretty big difference between the projected and actual scoring margins, special teams and blown opportunities are the main culprits.
Special teams: ASU missed three field goals (including a chip-shot 26-yarder), and Oregon's Charles Nelson returned a kick 100 yards for a touchdown.
Blown opportunities: Those three missed field goals again, plus the fact that Oregon scored seven touchdowns in nine scoring opportunities on offense.
ASU controlled this game (more yards, more opportunities, better success rate, better in the trenches) and almost had it put away. But the Sun Devils didn't put it away.