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Oregon 61, Arizona State 55: Sun Devils dropped the dagger (er, pitchfork)

Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

asuorewp

Top 5 Plays

Play.Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play_Description

Pred

WPA

1

245

Arizona State

2

3

3

5

Mike Bercovici Pass INTERCEPTED

0.420

-0.420

2

240

Oregon

2

5

20

5

Vernon Adams Jr. Pass to Bralon Addison for 20, TOUCHDOWN

0.524

-0.381

3

230

Arizona State

3

3

18

5

Mike Bercovici Rush for 18, TOUCHDOWN

0.361

0.316

4

212

Oregon

4

8

8

4

Vernon Adams Jr. Pass to Dwayne Stanford for 8, TOUCHDOWN

0.837

-0.296

5

218

Oregon

1

10

25

5

Vernon Adams Jr. Pass to Dwayne Stanford for 25, TOUCHDOWN

0.524

-0.277

Oregon 61, Arizona State 55

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Arizona State Oregon Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 108 69
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 37.3 36.7 29.8
Possessions 18 17
Scoring Opportunities*
12 9
Points Per Opportunity 4.58 6.11 4.77
Leverage Rate** 72.2% 63.8% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.661 0.686 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Arizona State Oregon
Total 71.8 50.3
Rushing 33.8 22.1
Passing 38.0 28.2
Success Rate (what's this?) Arizona State Oregon Nat'l Avg
All (close) 48.2% 39.1% 41.7%
Rushing (close) 54.0% 47.8% 42.5%
Passing (close) 43.1% 34.8% 40.8%
Standard Downs 53.9% 43.2% 47.0%
Passing Downs 33.3% 32.0% 30.3%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Arizona State Oregon Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.38 1.86 1.26
Rushing (close) 1.25 2.01 1.07
Passing (close) 1.52 1.76 1.47
Standard Downs 1.24 2.10 1.11
Passing Downs 1.97 1.30 1.77
Line Stats Arizona State Oregon Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 4.25 3.22 2.86
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 8.1% 9.1% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 9.5% 12.5% 7.5%
Turnovers Arizona State Oregon
Turnovers 2 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 10.2 3.5
Turnover Margin Oregon +1
Exp. TO Margin Oregon +1.02
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Arizona State +0.02
TO Points Margin Oregon +6.7 points
Situational Arizona State Oregon
Q1 S&P 0.554 0.855
Q2 S&P 0.722 0.642
Q3 S&P 0.684 0.836
Q4 S&P 0.630 0.420
1st Down S&P 0.701 0.709
2nd Down S&P 0.665 0.637
3rd Down S&P 0.608 0.665
Projected Scoring Margin: Arizona State by 14.8
Actual Scoring Margin: Oregon by 6

Usually when there's a pretty big difference between the projected and actual scoring margins, special teams and blown opportunities are the main culprits.

Special teams: ASU missed three field goals (including a chip-shot 26-yarder), and Oregon's Charles Nelson returned a kick 100 yards for a touchdown.

Blown opportunities: Those three missed field goals again, plus the fact that Oregon scored seven touchdowns in nine scoring opportunities on offense.

ASU controlled this game (more yards, more opportunities, better success rate, better in the trenches) and almost had it put away. But the Sun Devils didn't put it away.