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Top 5 Plays
|
|
Play Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Win Probability |
Home Team Win Probability Added |
|
1 |
212 |
UCLA |
1 |
10 |
37 |
4 |
Josh Rosen Rush for 37, TOUCHDOWN |
0.380 |
0.370 |
|
2 |
226 |
UCLA |
1 |
10 |
77 |
4 |
Josh Rosen Pass to Paul Perkins for 0 |
0.347 |
-0.347 |
|
3 |
223 |
Washington State |
3 |
10 |
21 |
4 |
Luke Falk Pass to Gabe Marks for 21, TOUCHDOWN |
0.620 |
-0.340 |
|
4 |
93 |
Washington State |
4 |
20 |
54 |
2 |
PUNT |
0.808 |
-0.190 |
|
5 |
202 |
Washington State |
1 |
10 |
23 |
4 |
Luke Falk Pass INTERCEPTED |
0.132 |
0.15 |
Washington State 31, UCLA 27
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | UCLA | Washington State | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 89 | 80 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 19.1 | 35.8 | 29.7 |
| Possessions | 11 | 12 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
6 | 7 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 4.33 | 4.43 | 4.73 |
| Leverage Rate** | 61.8% | 66.3% | 68.1% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.606 | 0.590 | 0.586 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | UCLA | Washington State | |
| Total | 48.7 | 39.9 | |
| Rushing | 19.8 | 7.0 | |
| Passing | 28.9 | 32.9 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | UCLA | Washington State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 46.1% | 47.5% | 41.7% |
| Rushing (close) | 53.1% | 68.8% | 42.7% |
| Passing (close) | 42.1% | 42.2% | 40.7% |
| Standard Downs | 38.2% | 56.6% | 46.9% |
| Passing Downs | 58.8% | 29.6% | 30.5% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | UCLA | Washington State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.19 | 1.05 | 1.26 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.16 | 0.64 | 1.07 |
| Passing (close) | 1.21 | 1.22 | 1.48 |
| Standard Downs | 1.16 | 0.94 | 1.11 |
| Passing Downs | 1.22 | 1.47 | 1.77 |
| Line Stats | UCLA | Washington State | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.51 | 3.14 | 2.88 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 10.0% | 4.9% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 8.3% | 7.6% |
| Turnovers | UCLA | Washington State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 9.0 | 4.3 |
| Turnover Margin | Washington State +1 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Washington State +0.73 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Washington State +0.27 | |
| TO Points Margin | Washington State +4.6 points | |
| Situational | UCLA | Washington State |
| Q1 S&P | 0.674 | 0.669 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.611 | 0.514 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.500 | 0.603 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.630 | 0.622 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.608 | 0.632 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.461 | 0.502 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.736 | 0.565 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: UCLA by 4.2 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Washington State by 4 | ||
How do you outgain an opponent by 128 yards (0.9 per play) and lose? By settling for four field goals, recovering zero of three fumbles, and getting trounced in the field position battle, basically. UCLA created more chances and gained more yards but battled a tilted field and a bouncing ball. And really, when you take that into account, it's almost a surprise that Wazzu needed until the very end to take the lead.
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