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Washington State 31, UCLA 27: Bruins got the yards, Cougs got everything else

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Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

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Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Win Probability

Home Team Win Probability Added

1

212

UCLA

1

10

37

4

Josh Rosen Rush for 37, TOUCHDOWN

0.380

0.370

2

226

UCLA

1

10

77

4

Josh Rosen Pass to Paul Perkins for 0

0.347

-0.347

3

223

Washington State

3

10

21

4

Luke Falk Pass to Gabe Marks for 21, TOUCHDOWN

0.620

-0.340

4

93

Washington State

4

20

54

2

PUNT

0.808

-0.190

5

202

Washington State

1

10

23

4

Luke Falk Pass INTERCEPTED

0.132

0.15

Washington State 31, UCLA 27

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics UCLA Washington State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 89 80
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 19.1 35.8 29.7
Possessions 11 12
Scoring Opportunities*
6 7
Points Per Opportunity 4.33 4.43 4.73
Leverage Rate** 61.8% 66.3% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.606 0.590 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) UCLA Washington State
Total 48.7 39.9
Rushing 19.8 7.0
Passing 28.9 32.9
Success Rate (what's this?) UCLA Washington State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 46.1% 47.5% 41.7%
Rushing (close) 53.1% 68.8% 42.7%
Passing (close) 42.1% 42.2% 40.7%
Standard Downs 38.2% 56.6% 46.9%
Passing Downs 58.8% 29.6% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) UCLA Washington State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.19 1.05 1.26
Rushing (close) 1.16 0.64 1.07
Passing (close) 1.21 1.22 1.48
Standard Downs 1.16 0.94 1.11
Passing Downs 1.22 1.47 1.77
Line Stats UCLA Washington State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.51 3.14 2.88
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 10.0% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 8.3% 7.6%
Turnovers UCLA Washington State
Turnovers 2 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 9.0 4.3
Turnover Margin Washington State +1
Exp. TO Margin Washington State +0.73
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Washington State +0.27
TO Points Margin Washington State +4.6 points
Situational UCLA Washington State
Q1 S&P 0.674 0.669
Q2 S&P 0.611 0.514
Q3 S&P 0.500 0.603
Q4 S&P 0.630 0.622
1st Down S&P 0.608 0.632
2nd Down S&P 0.461 0.502
3rd Down S&P 0.736 0.565
Projected Scoring Margin: UCLA by 4.2
Actual Scoring Margin: Washington State by 4

How do you outgain an opponent by 128 yards (0.9 per play) and lose? By settling for four field goals, recovering zero of three fumbles, and getting trounced in the field position battle, basically. UCLA created more chances and gained more yards but battled a tilted field and a bouncing ball. And really, when you take that into account, it's almost a surprise that Wazzu needed until the very end to take the lead.