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Top 5 Plays
|
|
Play Number |
Offense |
Down |
Distance |
Spot |
Quarter |
Play Description |
Home Team Win Probability |
Home Team Win Probability Added |
|
1 |
2 |
Florida State |
1 |
10 |
75 |
1 |
Everett Golson Rush for -15, FUMBLE |
0.562 |
-0.171 |
|
2 |
57 |
Florida State |
3 |
16 |
65 |
2 |
Everett Golson Pass to Kermit Whitfield for 25, FIRST DOWN |
0.227 |
0.114 |
|
3 |
129 |
North Carolina State |
2 |
7 |
65 |
3 |
Jacoby Brissett Pass to Jaylen Samuels for 9 |
0.645 |
0.109 |
|
4 |
45 |
Florida State |
3 |
7 |
72 |
1 |
Everett Golson Pass INTERCEPTED |
0.424 |
-0.104 |
|
5 |
107 |
North Carolina State |
3 |
11 |
76 |
3 |
Jacoby Brissett Pass to David J. Grinnage for 14, FIRST DOWN |
0.606 |
-0.099 |
Florida State 34, NC State 17
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Florida State | NC State | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 75 | 83 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 82.3% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 33.2 | 30.7 | 29.7 |
| Possessions | 13 | 14 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
9 | 4 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 3.78 | 4.25 | 4.73 |
| Leverage Rate** | 78.5% | 61.5% | 68.1% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.666 | 0.452 | 0.586 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
|||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Florida State | NC State | |
| Total | 47.1 | 26.4 | |
| Rushing | 20.0 | 9.7 | |
| Passing | 27.1 | 16.7 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Florida State | NC State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 52.3% | 38.5% | 41.7% |
| Rushing (close) | 51.9% | 41.7% | 42.7% |
| Passing (close) | 52.6% | 36.6% | 40.7% |
| Standard Downs | 54.9% | 42.5% | 46.9% |
| Passing Downs | 42.9% | 32.0% | 30.5% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Florida State | NC State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.24 | 0.72 | 1.26 |
| Rushing (close) | 1.07 | 0.82 | 1.07 |
| Passing (close) | 1.36 | 0.65 | 1.48 |
| Standard Downs | 1.19 | 0.60 | 1.11 |
| Passing Downs | 1.45 | 0.97 | 1.77 |
| Line Stats | Florida State | NC State | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.36 | 2.81 | 2.88 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 4.0% | 10.5% | 4.9% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 4.6% | 7.6% |
| Turnovers | Florida State | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 5 | 1 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 21.9 | 4.0 |
| Turnover Margin | NC State +4 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | NC State +0.07 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | NC State +3.93 | |
| TO Points Margin | NC State +17.9 points | |
| Situational | Florida State | NC State |
| Q1 S&P | 0.609 | 0.528 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.641 | 0.506 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.684 | 0.324 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.665 | 0.563 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.656 | 0.459 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.688 | 0.523 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.654 | 0.467 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Florida State by 2.8 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Florida State by 17 | ||
Teams with a minus-4 turnover differential almost never win. Teams that create five more scoring opportunities than their opponents almost never lose. It was like FSU just kept handing the ball back to NC State to raise the degree of difficulty, but power to the 'Noles for still comfortably defeating a pretty good team with Benny Hill-level turnover issues. This FSU defense is awesome.
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