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Florida State 34, NC State 17: Only the 'Noles could stop the 'Noles

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Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports

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Top 5 Plays

Play Number

Offense

Down

Distance

Spot

Quarter

Play Description

Home Team Win Probability

Home Team Win Probability Added

1

2

Florida State

1

10

75

1

Everett Golson Rush for -15, FUMBLE

0.562

-0.171

2

57

Florida State

3

16

65

2

Everett Golson Pass to Kermit Whitfield for 25, FIRST DOWN

0.227

0.114

3

129

North Carolina State

2

7

65

3

Jacoby Brissett Pass to Jaylen Samuels for 9

0.645

0.109

4

45

Florida State

3

7

72

1

Everett Golson Pass INTERCEPTED

0.424

-0.104

5

107

North Carolina State

3

11

76

3

Jacoby Brissett Pass to David J. Grinnage for 14, FIRST DOWN

0.606

-0.099

Florida State 34, NC State 17

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Florida State NC State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 75 83
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 82.3%
Avg Starting FP 33.2 30.7 29.7
Possessions 13 14
Scoring Opportunities*
9 4
Points Per Opportunity 3.78 4.25 4.73
Leverage Rate** 78.5% 61.5% 68.1%
Close S&P*** 0.666 0.452 0.586
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Florida State NC State
Total 47.1 26.4
Rushing 20.0 9.7
Passing 27.1 16.7
Success Rate (what's this?) Florida State NC State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 52.3% 38.5% 41.7%
Rushing (close) 51.9% 41.7% 42.7%
Passing (close) 52.6% 36.6% 40.7%
Standard Downs 54.9% 42.5% 46.9%
Passing Downs 42.9% 32.0% 30.5%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Florida State NC State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.24 0.72 1.26
Rushing (close) 1.07 0.82 1.07
Passing (close) 1.36 0.65 1.48
Standard Downs 1.19 0.60 1.11
Passing Downs 1.45 0.97 1.77
Line Stats Florida State NC State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.36 2.81 2.88
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 4.0% 10.5% 4.9%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 4.6% 7.6%
Turnovers Florida State NC State
Turnovers 5 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 21.9 4.0
Turnover Margin NC State +4
Exp. TO Margin NC State +0.07
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) NC State +3.93
TO Points Margin NC State +17.9 points
Situational Florida State NC State
Q1 S&P 0.609 0.528
Q2 S&P 0.641 0.506
Q3 S&P 0.684 0.324
Q4 S&P 0.665 0.563
1st Down S&P 0.656 0.459
2nd Down S&P 0.688 0.523
3rd Down S&P 0.654 0.467
Projected Scoring Margin: Florida State by 2.8
Actual Scoring Margin: Florida State by 17

Teams with a minus-4 turnover differential almost never win. Teams that create five more scoring opportunities than their opponents almost never lose. It was like FSU just kept handing the ball back to NC State to raise the degree of difficulty, but power to the 'Noles for still comfortably defeating a pretty good team with Benny Hill-level turnover issues. This FSU defense is awesome.